Democrats Unite, But What Happened To ‘Medicare For All’?

On Tuesday, July 12, 2016, Senator Bernie Sanders formally endorsed Hillary Clinton, presumptive 2016 Democratic presidential nominee. (Ian Thomas Jansen-Lonquist/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

After a raucous debate lasting nearly a year, the Democrats are united on health care. But that unity does not include a call for a single-payer 鈥淢edicare for all鈥 health system.

鈥淭his campaign is about moving the United States toward universal health care and reducing the number of people who are uninsured or under-insured,鈥 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Tuesday in endorsing his rival Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Sanders did win a few health care concessions in the negotiations leading to the endorsement. Clinton more funding for community health centers and access to a 鈥減ublic option鈥 government insurance plan, which she has supported in the past.

But on Sanders鈥 top health priority 鈥斅 plan 鈥斅爐here was not a word. At the meeting over the weekend, an amendment to add a single-payer plan to the document was defeated.

It wasn鈥檛 much of a surprise.

Most health policy analysts 鈥斅爄ncluding those who are sympathetic to the idea 鈥 say moving from the current U.S. public-private hybrid health system to one fully funded by the government in one step is basically impossible. And that鈥檚 making a huge assumption that it could get through Congress.

鈥淭o try to do it in one fell swoop would be massively disruptive,鈥 said Paul Starr, a professor at Princeton who was a health policy adviser to President Bill Clinton.

The U.S. health care system, said Jeff Goldsmith, a health care consultant and health futurist, is 鈥渢he size of a country 鈥斅爄t鈥檚 bigger than France聽鈥 and it employs 16 million people.鈥

In moving to a single-payer system, he said, 鈥測ou鈥檙e talking about reallocating $3 trillion, reducing people鈥檚 incomes and creating鈥 in effect a single entity that would set prices for all medical services. Single-payer supporters dispute the idea that getting from here to there could not be done.

鈥淲e鈥檙e so used to such a complicated system in the U.S. that we envisage any change would be incredibly complicated as well,鈥 said Steffie Woolhandler, a physician and one of the founders of the single-payer advocacy organization . 鈥淏ut what you鈥檙e doing with single-payer is actually simplifying the system.鈥

For example, said Woolhandler, 鈥渢he latest data is U.S. hospitals are spending 25 percent of their total budget on billing and administration, and hospitals in single-payer nations like Canada and Scotland are spending 12 percent.鈥

But while a single-payer system would undoubtedly produce efficiencies, it would also bring huge disruptions. Said Starr, single-payer supporters 鈥渉aven鈥檛 worked through the consequences.鈥

One of the biggest is exactly how to redistribute literally trillions of dollars. The problem, said Harold Pollack, a professor at the University of Chicago, is that the change will create losers as well as winners.

鈥淧recisely the thing that is a feature for single-payer proponents is a bug for everyone who provides goods and services for the medical economy,鈥 he said, since their profits 鈥斅燼nd possibly their incomes 鈥斅燾ould be cut.

And it鈥檚 not just the private insurance industry (which would effectively be put out of business) that could feel the impact to the bottom line. Parts of the health care industry that lawmakers want to help, like rural hospitals, could inadvertently get hurt, too. Many rural hospitals get paid so little by Medicare that they only survive on higher private insurance payments. Yet under single-payer, those payments would go away and some could not make it financially. 鈥淵ou would not want to wipe out a third of the hospitals in Minnesota by accident,鈥 Pollack said. 鈥淎nd you could,鈥 if payments to hospitals end up too low.

There are also questions about how feasible it would be to have the federal government run the entire health care system. 鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to be nimble鈥 when a system gets that big, said Ezekiel Emanuel, a former health adviser in the Obama administration now at the University of Pennsylvania. 鈥淣o organization in the world does anything for 300 million people and does it efficiently.鈥

To try to do it in one fell swoop would be massively disruptive.

Paul Starr

The politics of Medicare 鈥斅爓hich serves roughly 50 million Americans 鈥斅燼lready make some things difficult or impossible, he said, pointing to in which doctors and patient advocacy groups blasted a proposal to move to a more cost-effective way to pay for cancer drugs. 鈥淵ou already can鈥檛 do certain things in Medicare because of the politicization,鈥 he said. 鈥漌hen you cover the whole country, it would be a lot of gridlock.鈥

Pollack agreed, and pointed out it鈥檚 not just the health care industry that could revolt. When the Affordable Care Act was rolled out in 2013, he said, 鈥渢he people who couldn鈥檛 keep their old plans 鈥斅燼 very tiny number as a percent of Americans鈥 . 鈥淲e saw how difficult that was and 聽when that promise wasn鈥檛 kept. Now imagine the major shift we鈥檇 have to do to move to a single payer system.鈥

There鈥檚 also the question of whether it鈥檚 simply too late to go back to the health care drawing board.

Single-payer supporter Woolhandler insists it is not. 鈥淥ther nations have gone to single-payer systems,鈥 she said. 鈥淚t usually can be done in about a year.鈥

The last industrialized country that did the switch was , in the mid-1990s. Taiwan, however, with its 23 million residents, has a population larger than New York and smaller than Texas, and had no existing private health insurance system at the time.

鈥淲hat I鈥檝e often said is we could have done this in the 1940s when Harry Truman proposed it,鈥 said Starr, who has on the history of American health politics. 鈥淗ealth care at that point was probably about 4 percent of [gross domestic product] and there existed at that time a relatively small private insurance industry.鈥 Today health care spending in the U.S. is of the nation鈥檚 GDP and the private health insurance industry accounts for half a trillion dollars per year.

Both Starr and Pollack, however, said it would be possible to make a switch, although it would have to be carried out over a very long period of time.

鈥淵ou could imagine some kind of long transition, where you gradually expanded Medicare,鈥 said Starr, 鈥渇or example moving it down to age 55鈥 and then in later years continue to lower the age threshold.

But even if the U.S. did manage to execute a single-payer system, said Pollack, it would likely prove problematic, particularly in how it would be financed.

鈥淭he major value of a single-payer system would be to help the bottom third of the income distribution, and that means the top 20 percent of the population will have to pay more,鈥 he said. 鈥淚鈥檓 actually in favor of that, but let鈥檚 not kid ourselves. That鈥檚 a knife fight that鈥檚 going to be had.鈥

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