In our calls for on the effect of default on the health care industry, we spent some time talking with Princeton economist .

He doubts that health care would be affected, unless someone wanted to “make a dramatic statement.”

He believes most doctors’ offices, labs and hospitals could survive a few weeks without Medicare payments with a normal cash cushion. And, he thinks even Medicaid could be safe, because of Obama administration support:

Democrats are a fierce champion of the poor.  The poor is the last group Democrats would pick on.

Then he speculated about what might be happening at the White House:

There probably already exists a list of priorities of whom you will not pay. My hunch is that list will be political. Though I think with President Obama, he wants to [turn] the other cheek, the Christian thing, rather than Reagan who had an amiable smile but knew how to mete out punishment. In a political list, the first things that wouldn’t get paid would be defense contractors in Republican congressional districts [those that don’t affect the wars]. They could certainly do some damage in Ft. Worth, Texas, before they would pick on health care providers. Obviously the party in power has some ability to use decision-making power as leverage. My hunch is that wouldn’t be the president’s instinct but the people around him.

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