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In California Governor Race, Single-Payer Is a Litmus Test. Theres Still No Way To Pay for It.

When Gavin Newsom ran for California governor in 2018, for a state-run single-payer healthcare system was considered a risky move and earned him hefty .

Today, leading Democrats in the wide-open race to succeed Newsom have embraced single-payer as a political necessity, an answer to voters fed up with rising premiums and other spiraling healthcare costs.

But with no clear front-runner, they are sparring among themselves in debates and political ads over who is most committed to a government-run model. No candidate has outlined how California would fund comprehensive health coverage for its 40 million residents, leaving voters unable to discern which candidate has a concrete plan for the nations most populous state.

Healthcare and political experts said the concept of single-payer has shifted from progressive pipe dream a decade ago to todays mainstream talking points in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1. Democrats have pledged the model as the best way to lower costs in an attempt to woo voters worried about affordability as ballots arrive for the June 2 primary. The top two Republicans, meanwhile, have dismissed government-run healthcare as a disaster and socialism.

In many ways, single-payer healthcare has become a progressive litmus test, said Larry Levitt, a former White House policy adviser and a healthcare expert at KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes 窪蹋勛圖厙 News.

Few voters fully understand the term single-payer, let alone expect the next governor to achieve it, Levitt said. Rather, he added, the term has become more of a signal to voters about a candidates approach to healthcare reform.

Xavier Becerra, the former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, who for decades backed single-payer healthcare in Congress, has come under criticism from opponents for a nuanced but clear shift away from single-payer. It came after Becerra secured an endorsement from the California Medical Association, a powerful group representing doctors and a longtime opponent of single-payer healthcare bills in California.

At a May 5 debate put on by CNN, Becerra for Medicare for All, a proposal for a thats been stalled for years, but he declined to say whether hed pursue a California-led effort. He said his immediate focus would be on mitigating the drastic federal cuts expected to hit low-income and disabled enrollees in Medi-Cal, the states Medicaid program, which covers more than a third of residents.

Becerra is counting on voters not to distinguish between the often-confused terms single-payer, Medicare for All, and universal coverage, noting during the debate that Californians dont care what you call it, so long as they have affordable healthcare.

A lot of people arent clear what single-payer is, and they need a metaphor to understand it, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and one of the lead pollsters for former President Joe Bidens 2020 campaign.

Billionaire activist Tom Steyer, whos touted his self-funding as a , has emerged as the races most vocal advocate of single-payer after during a short-lived 2020 presidential bid.

As governor, Steyer has said, he would pass legislation backed by the California Nurses Association that has failed to come to fruition under Newsoms tenure. Pressed on how he would cover the estimated , Steyer told 窪蹋勛圖厙 News that God is going to be in the details.

At a , former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter said she didnt believe achieving such a system was realistic in the near term, but the Orange County Democrat later told party delegates that she would . Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, Democrats who are trailing their competitors in the polls, dont support single-payer. The top two vote-getters regardless of party advance to the November general election.

Some of the most seasoned politicians have failed to deliver single-payer. Newsom, who campaigned on the promise of being a healthcare governor, dialed back his ambitions upon taking office, choosing instead to pursue to health coverage under a series of Medi-Cal expansions and efforts to contain healthcare spending.

A bus with the message "All Aboard For A California You Can Afford" and "Tom Steyer for Governor" on its side is parked outside tall buildings.
The campaign bus for billionaire activist Tom Steyer, who has made single-payer healthcare a central pillar of his run for governor, in downtown Oakland, California. In 2020, Steyer ran for president opposing single-payer healthcare. (Christine Mai-Duc/窪蹋勛圖厙 News)

Vermont, which remains the a single-payer healthcare law, when leaders there couldnt identify a funding source.

To enact single-payer, California would from the federal government to redirect billions of dollars from Medicaid, Medicare, and other funding that currently flows to the system approval not likely to come from the Trump administration.

More than half of adults nationally say healthcare costs will have a on whom they vote for in November, according an April KFF poll.

Danielle Cendejas, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant who works with state legislative candidates, said single-payer healthcare increasingly appears on candidate questionnaires from as well as , in and .

What most California voters want to hear, Cendejas said, is how candidates plan to give them more immediate relief from higher premiums, expensive drug costs, and long waits to access care.

The high price tag doesnt faze Jennifer Easton, a 63-year-old Democrat from Oakland, who said other countries with similar models have proved they can lower costs. She said she supports a single-payer health system because its clear to her that Americans have reached the limits of working within the existing system. But she isnt expecting any of the current candidates to succeed in implementing one, and she hasnt decided whom to support.

No one can in four years, she said. Seeing a candidate enthusiastically support the concept gives her a good idea of their philosophy. It is, if were lucky, a 20-year, 25-year plan.

Rob Stutzman, a Republican political consultant who advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said while Americans of single-payer , focus groups suggest that approval drops quickly when voters realize it could mean losing their current doctor or insurance plan.

At the CNN debate, Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate President Donald Trump has endorsed, said Californians would end up with subpar patient care and taxes sky high to pay for it, like in his native United Kingdom.

Instead, Hilton suggested the state stop providing free healthcare for illegal immigrants who shouldn't even be in the country in the first place.

窪蹋勛圖厙 News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFFan independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

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