Subsidies Archives - ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News /tag/subsidies/ ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News produces in-depth journalism on health issues and is a core operating program of KFF. Fri, 08 May 2026 17:15:19 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.6 /wp-content/uploads/sites/8/2023/04/kffhealthnews-icon.png?w=32 Subsidies Archives - ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News /tag/subsidies/ 32 32 161476233 When It Comes to Health Insurance, Federal Dollars Support More Than ACA Plans /health-care-costs/tax-breaks-health-insurance-federal-support-beyond-aca-plans-employer-exclusion/ Fri, 20 Feb 2026 10:00:00 +0000 /?post_type=article&p=2156246 Subsidies. Love ’em or hate them, they dominated the news during the Affordable Care Act’s sign-up season, and their reduction is now hitting many enrollees in the pocketbook.

While lawmakers continue to disagree on a way forward, keeps the issue front and center, it would be understandable to think these are the only taxpayer-funded health insurance subsidies in the U.S. system.

But .

“The vast majority of people with health insurance for it, from Medicaid to Medicare to the ACA to employer-sponsored insurance,” said Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, a health information nonprofit that includes ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News.

These broad taxpayer supports are rarely discussed, though, as they apply to work-based coverage. So, let’s take a look.

Adding Up the Tax Breaks

of the more than on Medicare, the second-largest program in the federal budget behind Social Security, comes from general federal funds. The rest comes from payroll taxes and the monthly premiums paid by enrollees, who number .

Medicaid — the nation’s largest health insurer, covering more than 70 million low-income people — costs annually. It’s jointly financed by the federal government (65%) and states (35%).

For both programs, expenses are partially funded with taxpayer dollars. A less obvious form of federal support comes through employer-sponsored health coverage. Here, the impact on the federal bottom line is less visible, as hundreds of billions of dollars never reach the U.S. Treasury because it takes the form of tax breaks for employers and workers.

“It’s a world apart from Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare — from the government writing checks to people,” said Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.

Job-based insurance provides coverage for under age 65. (By comparison, about 23 million people enrolled in Affordable Care Act plans for this year, generally because they don’t have job-based insurance. Extending the enhanced ACA subsidies that expired at the end of 2025 over a decade, or roughly $35 billion annually.)

In fact, contributions to employer-sponsored health plans are the single-largest “exclusion” — a tax policy that allows certain income to be exempt from taxes — in the federal budget. For this fiscal year, the , according to the Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office.

The money employers spend to offer health coverage to their employees can be written off as a business expense. And workers who receive this benefit don’t have to pay income or payroll taxes on its value.

or even thousands of dollars a year for workers. The amount varies, with the biggest breaks going to those with the most expensive health plans and those whose wages put them in the upper tax brackets. Contributions to health savings accounts related to health insurance.

But the exclusion can be a difficult concept for insured workers to wrap their heads around, as most employees still contribute a portion of their pay to health coverage.

Even though they’re not taxed on that, “it doesn’t necessarily feel like a subsidy to people,” Levitt said. “They do feel like they’re paying.”

Baked Into the Tax System

The tax treatment evolved along with work-based health insurance policies in the U.S., fueled during World War II, when wage and price controls spurred interest in offering health coverage to lure workers. It was enacted into tax law in 1954.

Backers, which often include labor unions and employers, say it encourages companies to offer health insurance, as most large companies do. Because of the cost, smaller companies are less likely to do so, even with the tax incentive. Also, for workers, getting $1 of health care coverage is worth more than an extra dollar in wages, which would be taxed and, thus, worth less.

Opponents of the tax break, however, note the lost revenue to the Treasury and that the tax exclusion, according to some economists, leads employers and workers to choose the most generous — and expensive — health insurance offered, which they say drives up health care spending. The tax break benefits wealthier workers more than those in lower-income tax brackets, and economists also say the amounts employers pay for health insurance might otherwise be spent on boosting workers’ wages.

While there is currently no pending legislation to modify the tax break, the growing federal deficit has some the policy will change. Benefit experts say the outcome would vary.

“It’s not clear that it would wind up in increased wages for everyone,” said KFF’s Levitt. “Some workers have more negotiating leverage than others.”

to cap or eliminate the exclusion have all failed.

“It’s had a bipartisan target on its back for 40 years,” said Paul Fronstin, a director at the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan organization.

Any change, however, “would raise some revenue, but it’s also a tax increase for workers,” Fronstin noted. “What would that mean, if their taxes go up? Do wages go up because they’re not getting the same tax breaks? There will be winners and losers in that equation.”

Still, because job-based coverage is the way so many Americans get health insurance, some policy experts warn that eliminating or even lowering the exclusion could remove an incentive for employers to offer coverage. While some employers would likely keep offering coverage even without the tax break — because it is a benefit that helps attract and retain workers — it is a huge expense, so others might drop it. Average family premiums cost an employer nearly $27,000 last year, .

“These are businesses, which weigh the costs of offering insurance, which have gone up dramatically,” said Elizabeth Mitchell, CEO of the , an organization of large public and private employers that offer health insurance to their workers. “If there’s not some sort of tax incentive, I would expect them to revisit whether they would bear those costs.”

Cannon, of the Cato Institute, considers the tax policy bad because it takes choice away from workers, who might rather have increased wages, even if they are taxed. Those additional wages, he argues, could then be invested in tax-advantaged health savings accounts, used to pay medical costs.

Under the current tax break approach, “you are effectively saying let the employer control a huge chunk of your earnings and enroll in the plan the employer chooses,” he argues.

Employers counter by saying they are better able to negotiate higher-quality, lower-cost health insurance packages than individuals could on their own.

Mitchell, at the employer group, said, “It is challenging for an enormous employer to negotiate fair prices with the large consolidated systems. So it’s hard to imagine how an individual would be able to navigate our current system.”

She also disputes arguments that the tax break leads to higher health care prices, driven by overly generous employer plans that lead insured workers to use more health services.

“That’s a tired economic theory that doesn’t apply in health care,” she said. “People don’t shop for health care because they want more of it. They use health care because they need it. It’s fundamentally different.”

Are you struggling to afford your health insurance? Have you decided to forgo coverage? Click here to contact ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and share your story.

ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

This article first appeared on ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and is republished here under a .

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When Health Insurance Costs More Than the Mortgage /health-care-costs/priced-out-health-insurance-costs-kentucky-tennessee-south-carolina/ Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:00:00 +0000 /?post_type=article&p=2149295 When Noah Hulsman, who owns a skate shop in Louisville, Kentucky, learned he no longer qualified for federal subsidies to help him pay for his “gold” Affordable Care Act health plan, the 37-year-old opted for skimpier coverage. But the deductible is about a quarter of his yearly income.

Loretta Forbes realized she would have to drop her plan after her monthly ACA marketplace premiums jumped tenfold in 2026. So the 56-year-old, who lives outside Nashville, Tennessee, started rationing her rheumatoid arthritis medications. Her husband, Jim, gave up on his fledgling handyman business and started looking for a job with insurance coverage.

And when Nicole Wipp learned the monthly premium for her family’s ACA plan would be more than their mortgage payment, she and her husband decided to drop their family plan and buy coverage only for their 15-year-old son.

After crunching the numbers, Wipp, 54, a self-employed lawyer in Aiken, South Carolina, said she and her family made the tough call.

“We decided that, ultimately, it would be better for us to gamble.”

Despite a contentious back-and-forth and the longest government shutdown in history last fall, the GOP-led Congress allowed enhanced ACA subsidies, which had helped millions of Americans cover all or part of their marketplace premiums since 2021, to expire on Dec. 31. With the loss of the subsidies and health care costs already surging, more middle-income people face tough decisions about their health coverage this year.

A man, a woman, and a boy pose for a photo with their arms around one another in front of palm trees and a high-rise building
When Nicole Wipp learned the monthly premium for her family’s ACA plan would be more than their mortgage payment, she and her husband, Marcus Sutherland, decided to drop their family plan and buy coverage for only their son, Marek. (The Wipp family)

Hulsman, Forbes, and Wipp don’t qualify for Medicaid, the public insurance program for those with low incomes or disabilities. But like many others, they are being squeezed by the increasing costs of groceries, housing, and other necessities. Rising monthly health insurance premiums, along with copayments, high deductibles, and other out-of-pocket medical costs, can often push families like these to the brink.

More than 80% of Americans said their cost of living has increased in the past year, according to from that includes ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News. Health care costs ranked at the top of their concerns, with about two-thirds saying that they are somewhat or very worried about affording health care — more than said the same about other necessities, such as food and housing, the poll found.

“Premiums are getting quite unaffordable for a lot of people. The cost of both health care and other basic needs is rising,” said , director of private coverage at the health consumer group Families USA. “This is an especially critical time for Congress to do something.”

Most Republican lawmakers have refused to renew the enhanced subsidies. Most of the public says that inaction by Congress was the “wrong thing,” according to the KFF poll. Instead, GOP lawmakers have advocated for an expansion of health savings accounts and for more plans with lower premiums and steeper deductibles and copays that don’t reduce overall costs.

President Donald Trump released in January with few details about how to lower out-of-pocket costs for millions of Americans. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he signed in July, is expected to leave millions uninsured over the next decade as it reduces federal health spending by nearly $1 trillion, mostly from Medicaid.

Already about 1.2 million fewer people have signed up for plans for this year under the ACA, also known as Obamacare, according to . Health policy analysts expect more people to stop making payments and drop coverage in the coming months. ACA marketplace insurers have said that they are charging 4 percentage points more in 2026 because they expect healthier people to drop plans as enhanced tax credits expire, leaving more sick and high-cost patients.

When You Have Health Insurance, But Can’t Afford To Get Hurt

Noah Hulsman, 37
Louisville, KentuckyÌý

Last year Noah Hulsman, who owns a skate shop, had a gold Affordable Care Act plan with a $750 deductible. But this year with the loss of his enhanced subsidy, Hulsman is paying the same monthly premium for a skimpier bronze plan with a deductibleÌýthat’sÌýover $8,400 – about a quarter of his yearly income. NowÌýhe’sÌýworried that a major accident could wipe out his skate shop. HeÌýwon’tÌýbe able to buy inventory or pay shop bills if heÌýhas toÌýmeet his full deductible, he said. “Getting hurt right now is not much of an option.”

Rising costs and lack of congressional action are forcing many to make “untenable choices,” said , executive director and co-founder of the Center for Children and Families at Georgetown University.

“People are faced with absorbing this huge financial and health risk,” she said.

Forbes, the woman with rheumatoid arthritis near Nashville, had been on an ACA marketplace plan since 2018. But this year she and her husband, Jim, dropped their coverage after learning the monthly premium would jump from $250 to $2,500 because the enhanced subsidies expired. Jim, 59, gave up his handyman business and began searching for a job with health insurance.

“We were like: ‘OK, we can’t breathe. We’re gonna tap out,’” said Forbes, who was diagnosed with cervical cancer in 2021. Last year she lost her job at a retirement facility because she couldn’t work after she had a hysterectomy.

A day before their ACA coverage lapsed, her husband got a job offer at a property management company that provides health coverage. In January, they learned that Forbes was approved for Medicare because of her disability. The $155 monthly premium is automatically deducted from her disability check, she said.

Forbes’ Medicare plan starts in February, just in time for her next cancer screening.

“You cannot imagine what a relief it is to know I will have care,” Forbes said.

Even those who are insured face drastically higher out-of-pocket costs. This year, health insurers’ premiums for ACA marketplace plans , the result of higher hospital costs, the popularity of pricey GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes, and the threat of tariffs, according to KFF. Nearly 4 in 10 adults said they were skipping or postponing necessary care because of costs, showed.

Hulsman, the Louisville shop owner, said he takes home about $33,000 a year from his business. Last year he paid about $105 a month for a gold plan on the marketplace, with a $750 deductible. This year, with the loss of the enhanced subsidy, Hulsman is paying the same monthly premium for a “bronze” plan, but with a deductible of $8,450, which he must pay out-of-pocket before his insurer starts paying for care. On average, deductibles for bronze plans are more than four times those of gold plans, according to .

Hulsman didn’t consider dropping health insurance, because Kentucky has limited . But he said he’ll try to get an estimate if he needs to go to a doctor. And he’s worried that a major accident could wipe out his skate shop. He won’t be able to buy inventory or pay shop bills if he has to meet his full deductible, he said.

“I’m just riding the line right now,” the skateboarder said. “One slip and it’s gonna be uncomfortable.”

A man wearing a multicolor hat looks out the front door of a shop with skateboards on shelves behind him as the camera catches his reflection in the mirror
Noah Hulsman, who owns a skate shop in Louisville, Kentucky, lost extra subsidies that helped him pay for a “gold” plan on the Affordable Care Act marketplace. (Luke Sharrett for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News)
A man skateboards on the side of the street in front of a brick building
He got a “bronze” plan for this year, but the deductible is so high that one accident could make it hard for him to also pay his shop’s bills. (Luke Sharrett for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News)

In South Carolina, Wipp dragged her family to get routine vaccinations on New Year’s Eve — the last day that she and her husband had health coverage.

This year’s monthly premium for a bare-bones bronze family plan would have cost them $1,400, up from $900 last year. They would still have faced high copays for doctor visits and need to meet a deductible of more than $10,000. Instead, they’re paying around $200 to cover just her son.

Wipp, who has a rare condition that causes cysts and other growths to form in the lungs, said she and her husband plan to pay out-of-pocket this year for any initial preventive care. Their second source of money, for larger medical expenses, is an old health savings account. But she said that account doesn’t have enough to cover a major accident or illness. And Wipp can’t add to the account while she is uninsured.

“The third source would be, I don’t know,” Wipp said. “The fourth is bankruptcy.”

Are you struggling to afford your health insurance? Have you decided to forgo coverage? Click here to contact ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and share your story.

ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

This article first appeared on ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and is republished here under a .

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Culture Wars Take Center Stage /podcast/what-the-health-429-obamacare-abortion-pill-mifepristone-hhs-january-15-2026/ Thu, 15 Jan 2026 20:20:00 +0000 /?p=2143097&post_type=podcast&preview_id=2143097 The Host
Julie Rovner photo
Julie Rovner ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Read Julie's stories. Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ weekly health policy news podcast, "What the Health?" A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book "Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z," now in its third edition.

Millions of Americans are facing dramatically higher health insurance premium payments due to the Jan. 1 expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. But much of Washington appears more interested at the moment in culture war issues, including abortion and gender-affirming care.

Meanwhile, at the Department of Health and Human Services, personnel continue to be fired and rehired, and grants terminated and reinstated, leaving everyone who touches the agency uncertain about what comes next.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Anna Edney of Bloomberg News, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico Magazine, and Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Panelists

Anna Edney photo
Anna Edney Bloomberg News
Joanne Kenen photo
Joanne Kenen Johns Hopkins University and Politico
Alice Miranda Ollstein photo
Alice Miranda Ollstein Politico

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • Congress remains undecided on a deal to renew enhanced ACA premium subsidies, as it is on spending plans to keep the federal government running when the existing, short-term plan expires at the end of the month. While some of the bigger appropriations hang-ups are related to immigration and foreign affairs, there are also hurdles to passing spending for HHS.
  • ACA plan enrollment is down about 1.5 million compared with last year, with states reporting that many people are switching to cheaper plans or dropping coverage. Enrollment numbers are likely to drop further in the coming months as more-expensive premium payments come due and some realize they can no longer afford the plans they’re enrolled in.
  • A key Senate health committee on Wednesday hosted a hearing on the abortion pill mifepristone, focused on the safety concerns posed by abortion foes — though those concerns are unsupported by scientific research and decades of experience with the drug. Many abortion opponents are frustrated that the Trump administration has not taken aggressive action to restrict access to the abortion pill.
  • As the Trump administration moved this week to rehire laid-off employees and abruptly cancel, then restore, addiction-related grants, overall government spending is up, despite the administration’s stated goal of saving money by cutting the federal government’s size and activities. It turns out the churn within the administration is costing taxpayers more. And new data, revealing that more federal workers left on their own than were laid off last year, shows that a lot of institutional memory was also lost.

Also this week, Rovner interviews ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Elisabeth Rosenthal, who created the “Bill of the Month” series and wrote the latest installment, about a scorpion pepper, an ER visit, and a ghost bill. If you have a baffling, infuriating, or exorbitant bill you’d like to share with us, you can do that here.

Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: The New York Times’ “,” by Maxine Joselow.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: ProPublica’s “,” by Anna Clark.

Joanne Kenen: The New Yorker’s “,” by Dhruv Khullar.

Anna Edney: MedPage Today’s “,” by Joedy McCreary.

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

  • The Washington Post’s “,” by Paul Kane.
  • HealthAffairs’ “,” by Mica Hartman, Anne B. Martin, David Lassman, and Aaron Catlin.
  • Politico’s “,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein.
  • JAMA’s “,” by Sophie Dilek, Joanne Rosen, Anna Levashkevich, Joshua M. Sharfstein, and G. Caleb Alexander.
click to open the transcript Transcript: Culture Wars Take Center Stage

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.] 

Julie Rovner: Hello from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and WAMU public radio in Washington, D.C., and welcome to What the Health? I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Jan. 15, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. 

Today, we are joined via video conference by Anna Edney of Bloomberg News. 

Anna Edney: Hi, everyone. 

Rovner: Alice [Miranda] Ollstein of Politico. 

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Hello. 

Rovner: And Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico Magazine. 

Joanne Kenen: Hi, everybody. 

Rovner: Later in this episode, we’ll have my interview with ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Elisabeth Rosenthal, who reported and wrote the latest “Bill of the Month,” about an ER trip, a scorpion pepper, and a ghost bill. But first, this week’s news. Let’s start this week on Capitol Hill, where both houses of Congress are here and legislating. This week alone, the Senate rejected a Democratic effort to accept the House-passed bill that would renew for three years the Affordable Care Act’s expanded subsidies â€” the ones that expired Jan. 1.  

The Senate also turned back an effort to cancel the Trump administration’s regulation covering the ACA, which, although it has gotten far less attention than the subsidies, would also result in a lot of people losing or dropping health insurance coverage.  

Meanwhile, in the House, Republicans are struggling just to keep the lights on. Between resignations, illnesses, and deaths, House Republicans are very nearly â€” in the words of longtime Congress watcher  â€” a [majority] in name only, which I guess is pronounced “MINO.” Their majority is now so thin that one or two votes can hand Democrats a win, as we saw earlier this week in a surprise defeat on an otherwise fairly routine labor bill. Which brings us to the prospects for renewing those Affordable Care Act subsidies. When the dust cleared from last week’s House vote, 17 Republicans joined all the House’s Democrats to pass the bill and send it to the Senate. But it seems that the bipartisan efforts in the Senate to get a deal are losing steam. What’s the latest you guys are hearing? 

Ollstein: Yeah, so it wasn’t a good sign when the person who has sort of come out as a leader of these bipartisan negotiations, Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, at first came out very strong and said, We’re in the end zone. We’re very close to a deal. We’re going to have bill text. And that was several days ago, and now they’re saying that maybe they’ll have something by the end of the month. But the initial enthusiasm very quickly fizzled as they really got into the negotiations, and, from what my colleagues have reported, there’s still disagreements on several fronts, you know, including this idea of having a minimum charge for all plans, no zero-premium plans anymore, which the right says is to crack down on fraud, and the left says would really deter low-income people from getting coverage. And there, of course, is, as always, a fight about abortion, as we spoke about on this podcast before. There is not agreement on how Obamacare currently treats abortion, and thus there can be no agreement on how it should treat abortion. 

And so the two sides have not come to any kind of compromise. And I don’t know what compromise would be possible, because all of the anti-abortion activist groups and their allies in Congress, of which there are many, say that the only thing they’ll accept is a blanket national ban on any plan that covers abortion receiving a subsidy, and that’s a nonstarter for most, if not all, Democrats. So I don’t know where we go from here. 

Rovner: Well, we will talk more about both abortion and the ACA in a minute, but first, lawmakers have just over two weeks to finish the remaining spending bills, or else risk yet another government shutdown. They seem to [be] making some headway on many of those spending bills, but not so much on the bill that funds most of the Department of Health and Human Services. Any chance they can come up with a bill that can get 60 votes in the Senate and a majority in the much more conservative House? That is a pretty narrow needle to thread. I don’t think abortion is going to be a huge issue in Labor, HHS, because that’s where the Hyde Amendment lives, and we usually see the Hyde Amendment renewed. But, you know, I see a lot of Democrats and, frankly, Republicans in the Senate wanting to put money back for a lot of the things that HHS has cut, and the House [is] probably not so excited about putting all of that money back. I’m just wondering if there really is a deal to be had, or if we’re going to see for the, you know, however many year[s] in a row, another continuing resolution, at least for the Department of Health and Human Services. 

Ollstein: Well, you’re hearing a lot more optimism from lawmakers about the spending bill than you are about a[n] Obamacare subsidy deal or any of the other things that they’re fighting about. And I would say, on the spending, I think the much bigger fights are going to be outside the health care space. I think they’re going to be about immigration, with everything we’re seeing about foreign policy, whether and how to put restraints on the Trump administration, on both of those fronts. On health, yes, I think you’ve seen efforts to restore funding for programs that was slashed by the Trump administration, and you are seeing some Republican support for that. I mean, it impacts their districts and their voters too. So that makes sense. 

Kenen: We’ve also seen the Congress vote for spending that the administration hasn’t been spent. So Congress has just voted on a series of things about science funding and other health-related issues, including global health. But it remains to be seen whether this administration takes appropriations as law or suggestion. 

Rovner: So while the effort to revive the additional ACA subsidies appears to be losing steam, there does seem to be some new hope for a bipartisan health package that almost became law at the end of 2024, so 13 months ago. Back then, Elon Musk got it stripped from the year-end spending bill because the bill, or so Musk said, had gotten too big. That health package includes things like reforms for pharmacy benefits managers and hospital outpatient payments, and continued funding for community health centers. Could that finally become law? That thing that they said, Oh, we’ll pass it first thing next year, meaning 2025. 

Edney: I think it’s certainly looking more likely than the subsidies that we’ve been talking about. But I do think we’ve been here before several times, not just at the end of last year â€” but, like with these PBM reforms, I feel like they have certainly gotten to a point where it’s like, This is happening. It’s gonna happen. And, I mean, it’s been years, though, that we’ve been talking about pharmacy benefit manager reforms in the space of drug pricing. So basically, you know, from when [President Donald] Trump won. And so, you know, I say this with, like, a huge amount of caution: Maybe. 

Rovner: Yeah, we will, but we’ll believe it when â€¦ we get to the signing ceremony. 

Ollstein: Exactly. 

Rovner: Well, back to the Affordable Care Act, for which enrollment in most states end today. We’re getting an early idea of how many people actually are dropping coverage because of the expiration of those subsidies. Sign-ups on the federal marketplace are down about 1.5 million from the end of last year’s enrollment period, and that’s before most people have to pay their first bill. States that run their own marketplaces are also reporting that people are dropping coverage, or else trying to shift to cheaper plans. I’m wondering if these early numbers â€” which are actually stronger than many predicted, with fewer people actually dropping coverage â€” reflect people who signed up hoping that Congress might actually renew the subsidies this month. Since we kept saying that was possible. 

Ollstein: I would bet that most people are not following the minutiae of what’s happening on Capitol Hill and have no idea the mess we’re in, and why, and who’s responsible. I would love to be wrong about that. I would love for everyone to be super informed. Hopefully they listen to this podcast. But you know, I think that a lot of people just sign up year after year and aren’t sure of what’s going on until they’re hit with the giant bill.  

Rovner: Yeah. 

Ollstein: One thing I will point out about the emerging numbers is it does show, at least early indications, that the steps a lot of states are taking to make up for the shortfalls and put their own funding into helping people and subsidizing plans, that’s really working. You’re seeing enrollment up in some of those states, and so I wonder if that’ll encourage any others to get on board as well. 

Kenen: But â€¦ I think what Julie said is it’s â€¦ the follow-up is less than expected. But for the reasons Julie just said is that you haven’t gotten your bill yet. So either you haven’t been paying attention, or you’re an optimist and think there’ll be a solution. So, and people might even pay their first bill thinking that there’ll be a solution next month, or that we’re close. I mean, I would think there’d be drop-off soon, but there might be a steeper cliff a month or two from now, when people realize this is it for the year, and not just a tough, expensive month or two. So just because they’re not as bad as some people forecast doesn’t say that this is going to be a robust coverage year. 

Edney: And I think, I mean, they are the whole picture when you’re talking about who’s signing up, but a lot of these people that I’ve read about or heard about are on the radio programs and different things are signing up, are drastically changing their lives to be able to afford what they think might be their insurance. So how does that play out in other aspects? I think will be .. of the economy of jobs, like, where does that lead us? I think will be something to watch out for too. 

Rovner: And by the way, in case you’re wondering why health insurance is so expensive, we got the , and total health expenditures grew by 7.2% from the previous year to $5.3 trillion, or 18% of the nation’s GDP [gross domestic product], up from 17.7% the year before. Remember, these are the numbers for 2024, not 2025, but it makes it pretty hard for Republicans to blame the Affordable Care Act itself for rising insurance premiums. Insurance is more expensive because we’re spending more on health care. It’s not really that complicated, right? 

Kenen: This 17%-18% of GDP has been pretty consistent, which doesn’t mean it’s good; it just means it’s been around that level for many, many, many years. Despite all the talk about how it’s unsustainable, it’s been sustained, with pain, but sustained. $5.7 trillion, even if you’ve been doing this a long time â€¦ 

Rovner: It’s $5.3 trillion. 

Kenen: $5.3 trillion. It’s a mind-boggling number. It’s a lot of dollars! So the ACA made insurance more â€” the out-of-pocket cost of insurance for millions of Americans, 20-ish million â€” but the underlying burden we’ve not solved the — to use the word of the moment, the “affordability” crisis in health care is still with us and arguably getting worse. But like, I think we’re sort of numb. These numbers are just so insane, and yet you say it’s unsustainable, but â€¦ I think it was Uwe’s line, right? 

Rovner: It was, it was a famous Uwe Reinhardt line. 

Kenen: No, it’s sustainable, if we’re sustaining it at a high â€” in economically â€” zany price.  

Rovner: Right. 

Kenen: And, like, the other thing is, like, where is the money? Right? Everybody in health care says they don’t have any money, so I can’t figure out who has the $5 trillion. 

Rovner: Yeah, well, it’s not â€¦ it does not seem to be the insurance companies as much as it is, you know, if you look at these numbers â€” and I’ll post a link to them â€” you know, it’s hospitals and drug companies and doctors and all of those who are part of the health care industrial complex, as I like to call it. 

Kenen: All of them say they don’t have enough.  

Rovner: Right. All right. So we know that the Affordable Care Act subsidies are hung up over abortion, as Alice pointed out, and we know that the big abortion demonstration, the March for Life, is coming up next week, so I guess it shouldn’t be surprising that Senate health committee chairman and ardent anti-abortion senator Bill Cassidy would hold a hearing not on changes to the vaccine schedule, which he has loudly and publicly complained about, but instead about the reputed dangers of the abortion pill, mifepristone. Alice, like me, you watched yesterday’s hearing. What was your takeaway? 

Ollstein: So, you know, in a sense, this was a show hearing. There wasn’t a bill under consideration. They didn’t have anyone from the administration to grill. And so this is just sort of your typical each side tries to make their point hearing. And the bigger picture here is that conservatives, including senators and the activist groups who are sort of goading them on from the outside â€” they’re really frustrated right now about the Trump administration and the lack of action they’ve seen in this first year of this administration on their top priority, which is restricting the abortion pill. Their bigger goal is outlawing all abortion, but since abortion pills comprise the majority of abortions these days, that’s what they’re targeting. And so they’re frustrated that, you know, both [Robert F.] Kennedy [Jr.] and [Marty] Makary have promised some sort of review or action on the abortion pill, and they say, We want to see itWhy haven’t you done it yet? And so I think that pressure is only going to mount, and this hearing was part of that. 

Rovner: I was fascinated by the Louisiana attorney general saying, basically, the quiet part out loud, which is that we banned abortion, but because of these abortion pills, abortions are still going up in our state. That was the first time I think I’d heard an official say that. I mean that, if you wonder why they’re going after the abortion pill, that’s why â€” because they struck down Roe [v. Wade] and assumed that the number of abortions would go down, and it really has not, has it? 

Ollstein: That’s right. And so not only are people increasingly using pills to terminate pregnancies, but they’re increasingly getting them via telemedicine. And you know, that’s absolutely true in states with bans, but it’s also true in states where abortion is legal. You know, a lot of people just really prefer the telemedicine option, whether because it’s cheaper, or they live really far away from a doctor who is willing to prescribe this, or, you know, any other reasons. So the right â€” you know, again, including senators like Cassidy, but also these activist groups â€” they’re saying, at a bare minimum, we want the Trump administration to ban telemedicine for the pills and reinstate the in-person dispensing requirement. That would really roll back access across the country. But what they really want is for the pills to be taken off the market altogether. And they’re pretty open about saying that.  

Rovner: Well, rather convenient timing from the , which published a peer-reviewed study of 5,000 pages of documents from the FDA that found that over the last dozen years, when it comes to the abortion pill and its availability, the agency followed the evidence-based recommendations of its scientists every single time, except once, and that once was during the first Trump administration. Alice, is there anything that will convince people that the scientific evidence shows that mifepristone is both safe and effective and actually has a very low rate of serious complications? There were, how many, like 100, more than 100 peer-reviewed studies that basically show this, plus the experience of many millions of women in the United States and around the world. 

Ollstein: Well, just like I’m skeptical that there’s any compromise that can be found on the Obamacare subsidies, there’s just no compromise here. You know, you have the groups that are making these arguments about the pills’ safety say very openly that, you know, the reason they oppose the pills is because they cause abortions. They say it can’t be health care if it’s designed to end a life, and that kind of rhetoric. And so the focus on the rate of complication â€¦ I mean, I’m not saying they’re not genuinely concerned. They may be, but, you know, this is one of many tactics they’re using to try to curb access to the pills. So it’s just one argument in their arsenal. It’s not their, like, primary driving, overriding goal is, is the safety which, like you said, has been well established with many, many peer-reviewed studies over the last several years. 

Rovner:ÌýSo, in between these big, high-profile anti-abortion actions like Senate hearings, those supporting abortion rights are actually still prevailing in court, at least in the lower courts. This week, [a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and the National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Association against the Trump administration after the administration also quietly gave Planned Parenthood and other family planning groups] back the Title X family planning money that was appropriated to it by Congress. That was what Joanne was referring to, that Congress has been appropriating money that the administration hasn’t been spending. But this wasn’t really the big pot of federal money that Planned Parenthood is fighting to win back, right?

Ollstein: It was one pot of money they’re fighting to win back. But yes, the much bigger Medicaid cuts that Congress passed over last summer, those are still in place. And so that’s an order of magnitude more than this pot of Title X family planning money that they just got back. So that aside, I’ve seen a lot of conservatives conflate the two and accuse the Trump administration of violating the law that Congress passed and restoring funding to Planned Parenthood. This is different funding, and it’s a lot less than the cuts that happened. And so I talked to the organizations impacted, and it was clear that even though they’re getting this money back, for some it came too late, like they already closed their doors and shut down clinics in a lot of states, and they can’t reopen them with this chunk of money. This money is when you give a service to a patient, you can then submit for reimbursement. And so if the clinic’s not there, it’s not like they can use this money to, like, reopen the clinic, sign a lease, hire people, etc.  

Rovner: Yeah. The wheels of the courts, as we have seen, have moved very slowly. 

OK, we’re going to take a quick break. We will be right back. 

So while abortion gets most of the headlines, it’s not the only culture war issue in play. The Supreme Court this week heard oral arguments in a case challenging two of the 27 state laws barring transgender athletes from competing on women’s sports teams. Reporters covering the argument said it seemed unlikely that a majority of justices would strike down the laws, which would allow all of those bans to stand. Meanwhile, the other two branches of the federal government have also weighed in on the gender issue in recent weeks. The House passed a bill in December, sponsored by now former Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene that would make it a felony for anyone to provide gender-affirming care to minors nationwide. And the Department of Health and Human Services issued proposed regulations just before Christmas that wouldn’t go quite that far, but would have roughly the same effect. The regulations would ban hospitals from providing gender-affirming care to minors or risk losing their Medicare and Medicaid funding, and would bar funding for gender-affirming care for minors by Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program. At the same time, Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy issued a declaration, which is already being challenged in court, stating that gender-affirming care, quote, “does not meet professionally recognized standards of health care,” and therefore practitioners who deliver it can be excluded from federal health programs. I get that sports team exclusions have a lot of public support, but does the public really support effectively ending all gender-affirming care for minors? That’s what this would do. 

Edney: Well, I think that when a lot of people hear that, they think of surgery, which is the much, much, much, much, much less likely scenario here that we’re even talking about. And so those who are against it have done an effective job of making that the issue. And so there â€¦ who support gender-affirming care, who have looked into it, would see that a lot of this is hormone treatment, things like that, to drugs â€¦  

Rovner: Puberty blockers! 

Edney: â€¦ they’re taking â€” exactly â€” and so it’s not, this isn’t like a permanent under-the-knife type of thing that a lot of people are thinking about, and I think, too, talking about, like mental health, with being able to get some of these puberty blockers, the effect that it can have on a minor who doesn’t want to live the way they’ve been living, so it’s so helpful to them. So I think that there’s just a lot that has, you know, there’s been a lot of misinformation out there about this, and I feel like that that’s kind of winning the day. 

Kenen: I think, like, from the beginning, because, like, five or six years ago was the first time I wrote about this. The playbook has been very much like the anti-abortion playbook. They talk about it in terms of protecting women’s health, and now they’re talking about it in protecting children’s health. And, as Anna said, they’re using words like mutilation. Puberty blockers are not mutilation. Puberty blockers are a medication that delays the onset of puberty, and it is not irreversible. It’s like a brake. You take your foot off the brake, and puberty starts. There’s some controversy about what age and how long, and there’s some possible bone damage. I mean, there’s some questions that are raised that need to be answered, but the conversation that’s going on now â€” most of the experts in this field, who are endocrinologists and psychologists and other people who are working with these kids, cite a lot of data saying that not only this is safe, but it’s beneficial for a kid who really feels like they’re trapped in the wrong body. So you know, I think it’s really important to repeat â€¦ the point that Anna made, you know, 12-year-olds are not getting major surgery. Very few minors are, and when they are, it’s closer â€¦ they may be under 18, it’s rare. But if you’re under 18, you’re closer to 18, it’s later in teens. And it’s not like you walk into an operating room and say, you know, do this to me. There’s years of counseling and evaluation and professional teams. It really did strike a nerve in the campaign. I think Pennsylvania, in particular. This is something that people don’t understand and get very upset about, and the inflammatory language, it’s not creating understanding. 

Rovner: We’ll see how this one plays out. Finally, this week, things at the Department of Health and Human Services continues to be chaotic. In the latest round of “we’re cutting you off because you don’t agree with us,” the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration sent hundreds of letters Tuesday to grantees canceling their funding immediately. It’s not entirely clear how many grants or how much money was involved, but it appeared to be something in the neighborhood of $2 billion â€” that’s around a fifth of SAMHSA’s entire budget. SAMHSA, of course, funds programs that provide addiction and mental health treatment, treatment for homelessness and suicide prevention, among other things. Then, Wednesday night, after a furious backlash from Capitol Hill and just about every mental health and substance abuse group in the country, from what I could tell from my email, the administration canceled the cuts. Did they miscalculate the scope of the reaction here, or was chaos the actual goal in this?  

Edney: That is a great question. I really don’t know the answer. I don’t know what it could serve anyone by doing this and reversing it in 24 hours, as far as the chaos angle, but it does seem, certainly, like there was a miscalculation of how Congress would react to this, and it was a bipartisan reaction that wanted to know why, what is it even your justification? Because these programs do seem to support the priorities of this administration and HHS. 

Rovner: I didn’t count, but I got dozens of emails yesterday.  

Edney: Yeah. 

Rovner: My entire email box was overflowing with people basically freaking out about these cuts to SAMHSA. Joanne, you wanted to say something? 

Kenen: I think that one of the shifts over â€” I’m not exactly sure how many years â€” 7, 8, 9, years, whatever we’ve been dealing with this opioid crisis, the country has really changed and how we see addiction, and that we are much more likely to view addiction not as a criminal justice issue, but as a mental health issue. It’s not that everybody thinks that. It’s not that every lawmaker thinks that, but we have really turned this into, we have seen it as, you know, a health problem and a health problem that strikes red states and blue states. You know, we are all familiar with the “deaths of despair.” Many of us know at least an acquaintance or an acquaintance’s family that have experienced an overdose death. This is a bipartisan shift. It is, you know, you’ve had plenty of conservatives speaking out for both more money and more compassion. So I think that the backlash yesterday, I mean, we saw the public backlash, but I think there was probably a behind-the-scenes â€” some of the “Opioid Belts” are very conservative states, and Republican governors, you know, really saying we’ve had progress. Right? The last couple of years, we have made progress. Fatal overdoses have gone down, and Narcan is available. And just like our inboxes, I think their telephones, they were bombarded.  

Rovner: Yeah. Well, meanwhile, several hundred workers have reportedly been reinstated at the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health â€” that’s a subagency of CDC [the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]. Except that those RIF [reduction in force] cancellations came nine months after the original RIFs, which were back in April. Does the administration think these folks are just sitting around waiting to be called back to work? And in news from the National Institutes of Health, Director Jay Bhattacharya told a podcaster last week that the DEI-related [diversity, equity, and inclusion] grants that were canceled and then reinstated due to court orders are likely to simply not be renewed. And at the FDA, former longtime drug regulator Richard Pazdur said at the J.P. Morgan [Healthcare] Conference in San Francisco this week that the firewall between the political appointees at the agency and its career drug reviewers has been, quote, “breached.” How is the rest of HHS expected to actually, you know, function with even so much uncertainty about who works there and who’s calling the shots? 

Ollstein: Not to mention all of this back and forth and chaos and starting and stopping is costing more, is costing taxpayers more. Overall spending is up. After all of the DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] and RIFs and all of it, they have not cut spending at all because it’s more expensive to pay people to be on administrative leave for a long time and then try to bring them back and then shut down a lab and then reopen a lab. And all of this has not only meant, you know, programs not serving people, research not happening, but it hasn’t even saved the government any money, either. 

Kenen: Like, you know, the game we played when we were kids, remember, “Red Light-Green Light,” you know, you’d run in one direction, you run back. And if you were 8 years old, it would end with someone crying. And that’s sort of the way we’re running the government these days [laughs]. The amount of people fired, put on leave. The CDC has had this incredible yo-yoing of people. You can’t even keep track. You don’t even know what email to use if you’re trying to keep in touch with them anymore. The churn, with what logic? It’s, as Alice said, just more expensive, but it’s, it’s also just â€¦ like you can’t get your job done. Even if you want a smaller government, which many of conservatives and Trump people do, you still want certain functions fulfilled. But there’s still a consensus in society that we need some kind of functioning health system and health oversight and health monitoring. I mean, the American public is not against research, and the American public is not against keeping people alive. You know, the inconsistency is pretty mind-boggling. 

Edney: Well, there’s a lot of rank-and-file, but we’re seeing a lot of heads of parts of the agencies where, like at the FDA, with the drug center, or many of the different institutes at NIH that really don’t have anyone in place that is leading them. And I think that that, to me, like this is just my humble opinion, is it kind of seems like the message as anybody can do this part, because it’s all coming from one place. There’s really just one leader, essentially, RFK, or maybe it’s Trump, or they want everyone to do it the way that they’re going to comply with the different, like you said, everyone wants research, but I, Joanne, but I do think they only want certain kinds of research in this case. So it’s been interesting to watch how many leaders in these agencies that are going away and not being replaced. 

Rovner: And all the institutional memory that’s walking out the door. I mean, more people â€” and to Alice’s point about how this hasn’t saved money â€” more people have taken early retirement than have been actually, you know, RIF’d or fired or let go. I mean, they’ve just â€¦ a lot of people have basically, including a lot of leaders of many of these agencies, said, We just don’t want to be here under these circumstancesBye. Assuming at some point this government does want to use the Department of Health and Human Services to get things done, there might not be the personnel around to actually effectuate it. But we will continue to watch that space. 

OK, that’s this week’s news. Now we will play my “Bill of the Month” interview with Elisabeth Rosenthal, and then we will come back and do our extra credits. 

I am pleased to welcome back to the podcast Elisabeth Rosenthal, senior contributing editor at KFF Health News and originator of our “Bill of the Month” series, which in its nearly eight years has analyzed nearly $7 million in dubious, infuriating, or inflated medical charges. Libby also wrote the latest “Bill of the Month,” which we’ll talk about in a minute. Libby, welcome back to the podcast. 

Elisabeth Rosenthal: Thanks for having me back. 

Rovner: So before we get to this month’s patient, can you reflect for a moment on the impact this series has had, and how frustrated are you that eight years on, it’s as relevant as it was when we began? 

Rosenthal: We were worried it wouldn’t last a year, and here we are, eight years later, still finding plenty to write about. I mean, we’ve had some wins. I think we helped contribute to the No Surprises Act being passed. There are states clamping down on facility fees, you know, and making sure that when you get something done in a hospital rather than an outpatient clinic, it’s the same cost. The country’s starting to address drug prices. But, you know, we seem to be the billing police, and that’s not good. We’ve gotten a lot of bills written off for our individual patients. Suddenly, when a reporter calls, they’re like, Oh, that was a mistake or Yeah, we’re going to write that off. And I’m like, You’re not writing that off; that shouldn’t have been billed. So sadly, the series is still going strong, and medical billing has proved endlessly creative. And you know, I think the sad thing for me is our success is a sign of a deeply, deeply dysfunctional system that has left, as we know, you know, 100 million adult Americans with medical debt. So we will keep going until it’s solved, I hope. 

Rovner: Well, getting on to this month’s patient, he gives new meaning to the phrase “It must have been something I ate.” Tell us what it was and how he ended up in the emergency room. 

Rosenthal: Well, Maxwell [Kruzic] loves eating spicy foods, but he’s never had a problem with it. And suddenly, one night, he had just excruciating, crippling abdominal pain. He drove himself to the emergency room. It was so bad he had to stop three times, and when he got there, it was mostly on the right-lower quadrant. You know, the doctors were so convinced, as he was, that he had appendicitis, that they called a surgeon right away, right? So they were all like, ready to go to the operating room. And then the scan came back, and it was like, whoops, his appendix is normal. And then, oh, could he have kidney stones? And it’s like no sign of that either. And finally, he thought, or someone asked, Well, what did you eat last night? And of course, Maxwell had ordered the hottest chili peppers from a bespoke chili pepper-growing company in New Mexico. They have some chili pepper rating of 2 million [Scoville heat units], which is, like, through the roof, and it was a reaction to the chili peppers. I didn’t even know that could happen, and I trained as a doctor, but I guess your intestines don’t like really, really, really hot stuff. 

Rovner: So in the end, he was OK. And the story here isn’t even really about what kind of care he got, or how much it cost. The $8,000 the hospital charged for his few hours in the ER doesn’t seem all that out of line compared to some of the bills we’ve seen. What was most notable in this case was the fact that the bill didn’t actually come until two years later. How much was he asked to pay two years after the hot pepper incident? 

Rosenthal: Well, he was asked to pay a little over $2,000, which was his coinsurance for the emergency room visit. And as he said, you know, $8,000 â€¦ now we go, well, that’s not bad. I mean, all they did, actually, was do a couple of scans and give him some IV fluids. But in this day and age, you’re like, wow, he got away â€” you know, from a “Bill of a Month” perspective, he got away cheap, right? 

Rovner: But I would say, is it even legal to send a bill two years after the fact? Who sends a bill two years later? 

Rosenthal: That’s the problem, like, and Maxwell â€” he’s a pretty smart guy, so he was checking his portal repeatedly. I mean, he paid something upfront at the ER, and he kept thinking, I must owe something. And he checked and he checked and he checked and it kept saying zero. He actually called his insurer and to make sure that was right. And they said, No, no, no, it’s right. You owe zero. And then, you know, after like, six months, he thought, I guess I owe zero. But then he didn’t think about it, and then almost two years later, this bill arrives in the mail, and he’s like, What?! And what I discovered, which is a little disturbing, is it is not, I wouldn’t say normal, but we see a bunch of these ghost bills at “Bill of the Month,” and in many cases, it’s legal, because of what was going on in those two-year periods. And of course, I called the hospital, I called the insurer, and they were like, Yeah, you know, someone was away on vacation, and someone left their job, and we couldn’t â€¦ you know, the hospital billed them correctly. And the hospital said, No, we didn’t. And they were just kind of doing the usual back-end negotiations to figure out what a service is worth. And when they finally agreed two years later what should be paid, that’s when they sent Maxwell the bill. And the problem is, whether it’s legal really depends on your insurance contracts, and whether they allow this kind of late billing. I do not know to this day if Maxwell’s did, because as soon as I called the insurer and the hospital, they were like, Never mind. He doesn’t owe anything. And you know, as he said, he’s a geological engineer. He has lots of clients, and as he said, you know, if I called them two years later and said, Whoops, I forgot to bill for something, they would be like, Forget it! you know. So I do think this is something that needs to be addressed at a policy level, as we so often discover on “Bill of the Month.” 

Rovner: So what should you do if you get one of these ghost bills? I should say I’m still negotiating bills from a surgery that I had six months ago. So I guess I should count myself lucky. 

Rosenthal: Well, I think you should check with your insurer and check with the hospital. I think more with your insurer â€” if the contract says this is legal to bill. It’s unclear to me, in this case, whether it was. The hospital was very much like, Oh, we made a mistake; because it took so long, we actually couldn’t bill Maxwell. So I think in his case, it probably was in the contract that this was too late to bill. But, you know, I think a lot of hospitals, I hate to say it, have this attitude. Well, doesn’t hurt to try, you know, maybe they’ll pay it. And people are afraid of bills, right? They pay them.  

Rovner: I know the feeling. 

Rosenthal: Yeah, I do think, you know, they should check with their insurer about whether there’s a statute of limitations, essentially, on billing, because there may well be and I would say it’s a great asymmetry, because if you submit an insurance claim more than six months late, they can say, Well, we won’t pay this

Rovner: And just to tie this one up with a bow, I assume that Maxwell has changed his pepper-eating ways, at least modified them? 

Rosenthal: He said he will never eat scorpion peppers again. 

Rovner: Libby Rosenthal, thank you so much. 

Rosenthal: Oh, sure. Thanks for having me. 

Rovner: OK, we’re back, and now it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s where we each recognize a story we read this week we think you should read, too. Don’t worry if you miss it. We will post the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Anna, why don’t you start us off this week? 

Edney: Sure. So my extra credit is from MedPage Today: “.” I appreciated this article because it answered some questions that I had, too, after the sweeping change to the childhood vaccine schedule. There was just a lot of discussions I had about, you know, well, what does this really mean on the ground? And will parents be confused? Will pediatricians â€” how will they be talking about this? You know, will they stick to the schedule we knew before? And there was an article in JAMA Perspectives that lays out, essentially, to clinicians, you know, that they should not fear malpractice .. issues if they’re going to talk about the old schedule and not adhere to the newer schedule. And so it lays out some of those issues. And I thought that was really helpful. 

Rovner: Yeah, this was a big question that I had, too. Alice, why don’t you go next? 

Ollstein: Yeah, so I have a piece from ProPublica. It’s called “.” So this is about how there’s been this huge push on the right to end public water fluoridation that has succeeded in a couple places and could spread more. And the proponents of doing that say that it’s fine because there are all these other sources of fluoride. You can get a treatment at the dentist, you can get it in stuff you buy at the drugstore and take yourself. But at the same time, the people who arepushing for ending fluoridated public drinking water are also pushing for restricting those other sources. There have been state and federal efforts to crack down on them, plus all of the just rhetoric about fluoride, which is very misleading. It misrepresents studies about its alleged neurological impacts. But it also, that kind of rhetoric makes people afraid to have fluoride in any form, and people are very worried about that, what that’s going to do to the nation’s teeth? 

Rovner: Yeah, it’s like vaccines. The more you talk it down, the less people want to do it. Joanne. 

Kenen: This is a piece by Dhruv Khullar in The New Yorker called “,” and it was really great, because there’s certain things I think that we who â€” like, I don’t know how all of you watch it â€” but like, there’s certain things that didn’t even strike me, because I’m so used to writing about, like, the connection between poverty, social determinants of health, and, like, of course, people who come to the ED [emergency department] have, you know, homelessness problems and can’t afford food and all that. But Dhruv talked about how it sort of brought that home to him, how our social safety net, the holes in it, end up in our EDs. And he also talked about some of it is dramatized more for TV, that not everybody’s heart stops every 15 minutes. He said that sort of happens to one patient a day. But he talked about compassion and how that is rediscovered in this frenetic ED/ER scene. It’s just a very thoughtful piece about why we all love that TV show. And it’s not just because of Noah Wyle. 

Rovner: Although that helps. My extra credit this week is from The New York Times. It’s called “,” by Maxine Joselow. And while it’s not about HHS, it most definitely is about health. It seems that for the first time in literally decades, the Environmental Protection Agency will no longer calculate the cost to human health when setting clean air rules for ozone and fine particulate matter, quoting the story: “That would most likely lower costs for companies while resulting in dirtier air.” This is just another reminder that the federal government is charged with ensuring the help of Americans from a broad array of agencies, aside from HHS â€” or in this case, not so much.  

OK, that’s this week’s show. As always, thanks to our editor, Emmarie Huetteman, and our producer-engineer, Francis Ying. We also had help this week from producer Taylor Cook. A reminder: What the Health? is now available on WAMU platforms, the NPR app, and wherever you get your podcasts, as well as, of course, at kffhealthnews.org. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org, or you can find me still on X , or on Bluesky . Where are you folks hanging these days? Alice. 

Ollstein: Mostly on Bluesky  and still on X . 

Rovner: Joanne. 

Kenen: I’m mostly on  or on  . 

Rovner: Anna. 

Edney:  or X . 

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy. 

Credits

Francis Ying Audio producer
Emmarie Huetteman Editor

Click here to find all our podcasts.

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Millions of Americans Are Expected To Drop Their Affordable Care Act Plans. They’re Looking for a Plan B. /insurance/aca-enhanced-subsidies-obamacare-uninsured-drop-coverage-medicaid-gap/ Mon, 12 Jan 2026 10:00:00 +0000 /?post_type=article&p=2139066 A man wearing a camouflage sweatshirt and pants leans over to hand a piece of food through the bars of a cage to a pale raccoon who takes it with his paws.
Robert Sory feeds a treat to a blind, albino raccoon named Cricket. Russian foxes, African porcupines, emus, bobcats, and goats are also part of his menagerie. (Blake Farmer/WPLN)

It’s feeding time for the animals on this property outside Nashville, Tennessee. An albino raccoon named Cricket reaches through the wires of its cage to grab an animal cracker, an appetizer treat right before the evening meal.

“Cricket is blind,” said Robert Sory, who is trying to open a nonprofit animal sanctuary along with his wife, Emily. “A lot of our animals come to us with issues.”

The menagerie in Thompson’s Station includes Russian foxes, African porcupines, emus, bobcats, and some well-fed goats.

The Sorys are passionate about their pets and seem to put the animals’ needs before their own.

Both Robert and Emily started 2026 without health insurance.

Robert had been covered through a marketplace plan subsidized through the Affordable Care Act. His share of the monthly premiums was $0. When he looked up the rates for 2026, he saw that a barebones “bronze”-level plan would cost him at least $70 a month. He decided to forgo coverage altogether.

“When you don’t have any income coming in, it doesn’t matter how cheap it is,” he said. “It’s not affordable.”

A man and a woman lean against the fences of a fenced-in area with straw on the ground and four visible goats. The woman with straight dark hair wears a dark blue sweatshirt with striped pants and smiles at the camera. The man with a beard wears a straw hat, camouflage sweatshirt, and camouflage pants is in the middle of talking and looks a something off-camera.
Emily and Robert Sory are trying to open a nonprofit animal sanctuary at their home in Thompson’s Station, Tennessee. They have forgone health insurance this year and are looking for ways to pay for their care without coverage. (Blake Farmer/WPLN)

Dumping Coverage

Marketplace plans from the Affordable Care Act no longer feel very affordable to many people, because Congress did not extend a package of enhanced subsidies that expired at the end of 2025. Last week, the House did pass legislation to extend theÌýexpired subsidies, and negotiations have moved to the Senate. Without a deal, an estimated will go without coverage this year.

But even without a health plan, people will still need medical care. Many, like the Sorys, have been thinking through their plan B to maintain their health.

The Sorys both lost jobs in November, within days of each other. Robert worked as a farmhand. Emily worked at a staffing firm and lost her insurance along with her position.

“It’s a horrible, horrible market right now. Really tough,” she said.

The first time she had to pay out-of-pocket for her three monthly prescriptions, the cost was $184.

“To equate that to kind of how we think about it, you’re talking about 350 pounds of food for these animals,” Robert said. He pointed to his bobcats, who eat only meat.

A man in a camouflage sweatshirt holds a plastic container in his left hand and picks a large chunk of raw meat out of it with his right hand. In the large cage beside him, a bobcat stands on a plank about waist-height and looks at the meat.
A bobcat waits for a meaty meal served by Robert Sory. (Blake Farmer/WPLN)

Workarounds for the Newly Uninsured

To keep kibble in the food bowls, the Sorys are prepping for an uninsured future. They see the same psychiatrist and met with him to make a plan. He was willing to work with them by charging $125 per visit. They’ll have to go every three months to keep their prescriptions current.

And if other medical problems emerge? They’re hoping for the best.

“I’m not somebody who gets sick super often, thank God,” Robert said. “And if I do, generally I go to an emergency room where they’re going to bill me later.” Robert said he would arrange a repayment plan for bills like that.

Emily has costly health conditions and has already taken on substantial medical debt. “It’s just sitting there, and I’ve racked up money,” she said. “But I’ve had to go to the doctor.”

Donated Drugs and Sliding Scales

Hospitals and clinics are of newly uninsured patients. They’re also concerned that people won’t know about alternative ways to get medical care.

“We don’t have marketing dollars, so you’re not going to see big billboards or radio ads,” said , CEO of in Nashville. It’s one of the country’s 1,400 federally qualified health centers, also called FQHCs.

FQHCs are by the federal government. Although they do not usually offer free care, their fees tend to be lower or on a sliding scale.

Uninsured people who get care receive a bill, Beard said, “but the bill will be based on their ability to pay.”

FQHCs often have on-site pharmacies, and some offer prescription medications free of charge through a partnership with the , a Nashville-based nonprofit.

Many hospital pharmacies also partner with the nonprofit, which has donated by pharmaceutical companies to 277 sites in 38 states. must make the medicine available free of charge to people without insurance who have annual incomes below 300% of the federal poverty limit.

The organization primarily sources medications for chronic conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and mental health. Demand is expected to outstrip supply in the new year, according to .

“We’re projecting and engaging with our manufacturers and asking them, ‘Are you willing to help support, for this future status that we are anticipating?’” he said. “By and large,” he said, pharmaceutical companies have said they’re willing to step up.

“It’s a continuous conversation that we’re having,” Cornwell said.

A woman in a dark blue sweatshirt squats in the middle of a cage beside a bin with food in it. Three gray foxes surround her.
Emily Sory readies the foxes’ supper. (Blake Farmer/WPLN)

A Medicaid ‘Gap’ in 10 States

Hospitals will also have to find a way to care for more patients who cannot pay. Industry groups such as the have been vocal about the threat to hospitals’ financial health and have urged Congress to extend the enhanced subsidies, which take the form of tax credits.

The impact might be most acute in states like Tennessee that have not expanded Medicaid to cover people who work but do not have job-based insurance and cannot afford it on their own.

Ten states have chosen not to expand Medicaid to uninsured, low-income adults — an optional provision of the ACA that is mainly paid for by federal funds.

This Medicaid “gap” is , at the high end of the spectrum, by as much as 65% in Mississippi and by 50% in South Carolina, according to the Urban Institute.

As Emily Sory pets a Russian fox, she admits she is keenly aware that she will soon become part of this growing population. After all, her last job involved health care staffing. Her mother is a nurse.

“I understand the system. And I get it’s people like me that don’t pay their bill are why it suffers. And I feel bad,” she said. “But at the same time, I don’t have the money to pay it.”

This article is from a partnership that includes , , and ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News.

ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

This article first appeared on ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and is republished here under a .

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2139066
New Year, Same Health Fight /podcast/what-the-health-428-aca-subsidies-rfk-vaccine-schedule-january-8-2026/ Thu, 08 Jan 2026 21:15:00 +0000 /?p=2139949&post_type=podcast&preview_id=2139949 The Host
Julie Rovner photo
Julie Rovner ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Read Julie's stories. Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ weekly health policy news podcast, "What the Health?" A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book "Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z," now in its third edition.

Congress returned from its holiday break to the same question it faced in December: whether to extend covid-era premium subsidies for health plans sold under the Affordable Care Act. The expanded subsidies expired at the end of 2025, leaving more than 20 million Americans facing dramatically higher out-of-pocket costs for insurance.

Meanwhile, the Robert F. Kennedy Jr.-led Department of Health and Human Services announced an overhaul of the federal vaccine schedule for children, reducing the number of diseases for which vaccines are recommended from 17 to 11.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Sarah Karlin-Smith of Pink Sheet, Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico, and Lauren Weber of The Washington Post.

Panelists

Sarah Karlin-Smith photo
Sarah Karlin-Smith Pink Sheet
Alice Miranda Ollstein photo
Alice Miranda Ollstein Politico
Lauren Weber photo
Lauren Weber The Washington Post

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • The conservative movement to end abortion access nationwide has ensnared a last-ditch effort in Congress to help millions afford their health plans. As lawmakers consider a compromise to revive enhanced federal tax credits for ACA plans, some Republicans are arguing that the tax credits should be barred from subsidizing any plan that covers abortion care — even though the federal dollars would not be used to pay for abortions anyway. That change would force some states to choose between dropping their requirements for insurance coverage for abortion care or forgoing that federal assistance.
  • President Donald Trump this week urged Republicans in Congress to be “flexible” about abortion restrictions. Meanwhile, his health policies so far are not yielding notable benefits for Americans, with most of the savings from his high-profile pharmaceutical deals going to the federal and state Medicaid programs. And the $50 billion federal funding boost for rural health — intended to counterbalance nearly $1 trillion in expected Medicaid spending cuts — is unlikely to make a meaningful dent, in no small part because rural facilities are barred from using the money for general expenses.
  • While Kennedy announced an overhaul of federal recommendations for childhood vaccines, the action’s impact on vaccination rates and insurance coverage will depend in large part on how various states react, since states are the ones that impose mandates — such as for school enrollment — and regulate some insurers. Nonetheless, it is likely to result in a patchwork of state policies, which is problematic for public health efforts.
  • Federal health officials also unveiled new nutritional guidelines, turning the decades-old food pyramid upside down. Some of the recommendations adhere to scientific findings, such as cutting added sugar from one’s diet. Others are more controversial, particularly the suggestion that Americans should eat more red meat and the softening of guidelines on saturated fats.

Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read (or wrote) this week that they think you should read, too:

Julie Rovner: ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ “Advertisements Promising Patients a ‘Dream Body’ With Minimal Risk Get Little Scrutiny,” by Fred Schulte. 

Alice Miranda Ollstein: SFGate’s “,” by Lester Black and Stephen Council.  

Sarah Karlin-Smith: ProPublica’s “” by Anna Maria Barry-Jester and Brett Murphy.  

Lauren Weber: The Washington Post’s “,” by Rachel Roubein, Lena H. Sun, and Lauren Weber.  

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

  • NBC News’ “” by Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
  • Stat’s “,” by Isabella Cueto and Sarah Todd.
  • The Washington Post’s “,” by Lauren Weber, Caitlin Gilbert, Dylan Moriarty, and Joshua Lott.
  • The Guardian’s “,” by Carter Sherman.
Click to Open the transcript Transcript: New Year, Same Health Fight

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.]

Julie Rovner: Hello from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and WAMU Public Radio in Washington, D.C., and welcome to What the Health? I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Jan. 8, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So, here we go.

We are joined via videoconference by Lauren Weber of The Washington Post.

Lauren Weber: Hello, hello.

Rovner: Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Hi.

Rovner: And Sarah Karlin-Smith of the Pink Sheet.

Sarah Karlin-Smith: Hi, everybody.

Rovner: No interview this week, but tons of news to catch up on, so let us get right to it. So, we start 2026 in health care the same way we ended 2025, with a fight over expiring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. By the time you hear this, the House will likely have approved a Democratic-sponsored bill to reinstate for three years the expanded ACA subsidies that were in effect from 2021 through the end of 2025.

That vote was made possible by four Republicans crossing party lines in December to sign a discharge petition that forces a floor vote, over the objection to the House leadership. Interestingly, a preliminary vote on the bill on Wednesday drew not just the four moderate Republicans who signed the original discharge petition but five more, for a total of nine. The consensus of political reporters is that the bill is DOA [dead on arrival] in the Senate, which voted an identical proposal down in early December.

But I’m wondering how much heat Republicans were exposed to over the break by constituents whose out-of-pocket costs for insurance were doubling or more, and whether that might change the forecast somewhat. What are you guys hearing?

Weber: So, it seems that there are still some big hurdles to cross. And based on what senators told my colleagues over the past couple days, there’s not even an agreement on what current law is and does, and thus, they can’t agree on how it should change. And so, I’m talking specifically about the still-unresolved abortion issue.

This is the question of whether plans that cover abortion should receive any federal subsidy, even if those subsidies do not directly pay for an abortion. The Republicans are arguing that it’s an indirect subsidy, even though these are going into separate accounts. So, one of the Republican senators who is trying to craft a deal — that’s Bernie Moreno of Ohio — he was saying that they still don’t agree whether, under current law, federal funding is going to abortion.

So, it’s like you don’t even have a shared reality that senators are operating under, and that makes it really hard to come up with a proposal. They say they’re going to have text by Monday, but we’ll see if that actually happens.

Rovner: Yeah. Well, before we get too deeply into the abortion issue, which we will do in a minute, I want to talk a little bit more about that. I won’t even call it an emerging compromise. I’ll call it a potential compromise in the Senate.

Ollstein: Some bullet points were shared.

Rovner: Some bullet points. We know what the bullet points are. They would extend the additional subsidies for two more years, not three, with a couple of changes, including capping income eligibility for those subsidies at 700% of poverty up from 400% that it reverted back to on Jan. 1. It would also replace zero-premium plans with $5-per-month plans. That’s to crack down on brokers who fraudulently sign up people who don’t even know they have insurance so the brokers can collect commissions. And it would allow people to choose whether their enhanced subsidies should go into Republican-favored health savings accounts or directly toward their premiums.

Assuming — and this is obviously a big assumption — they could get past this abortion issue, what are the chances for a compromise that looks something like this? I mean, it sounds like something that could satisfy both Democrats and Republicans, particularly Republicans who are feeling pressured by their own constituents who’ve now seen there — are either dropping their insurance or seeing their out-of-pocket cost just goes wild.

Ollstein: I’ve heard some criticism from the Democratic side about getting rid of zero-premium plans specifically. They’re saying the Republicans want to run on affordability and helping out people who are struggling. How does eliminating the ability to get a zero-premium plan align with that?

And so I expect there will be some clashes over that. But I also think, again, senators aren’t even agreeing on what the current reality is, and that applies there, too. There have been all of these allegations of widespread fraud, and some experts and lawmakers have been pointing out that just because someone who is enrolled doesn’t actually use their benefits, that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s fraud going on.

It does seem like there is some fraud going on. You mentioned the perverse incentives for brokers, but a lot of this is circumstantial evidence rather than direct evidence.

Rovner: Also, one of the ironies here is that if you have somebody who’s healthy, who signs up for health insurance and doesn’t use it, that’s a good thing for the risk pool. You don’t want only sick people.

Ollstein: It helps everyone.

Rovner: There’s a lot of things making my head explode. Well, one of the things that Alice, I know, is making your head explode, too, is this disagreement about reality about abortion. And I would point out that President [Donald] Trump spoke to the retreat of the House Republicans this week and urged some flexibility, put that in air quotes, on this Hyde Amendment issue. Alice, remind us why this is an issue here. Doesn’t the Affordable Care Act already ban federal funding of abortion just like all other federal programs?

Ollstein: Yes. Yes, it does. So basically, this is part of a larger project on the right to expand the definition of Hyde.

Rovner: We should probably go back to the very beginning of what is …

Ollstein: Yes.

Rovner: … the Hyde Amendment because it only applies to annual appropriations, and that’s why it’s been important. I will let you take it from there.

Ollstein: Sure, sure. So, this is a budget rider that dates back to the 1970s that says that there can be no federal funding of abortion, except in a few instances, of there’s a risk to the mother’s life, and rape and incest. And so that has been renewed over and over under administrations of both parties, under Congress majorities of both parties.

And now, what they’re fighting over is, already federal funding that goes to these plans in the form of these subsidies, it does not go to pay for abortion directly. But conservatives are now arguing that if it goes to a plan that covers abortion using other funding, then that functions as an indirect subsidy. This is the same argument they’ve made about Title X, where any federal funding going to a program that uses other funding to pay for abortion, they now consider that sort of an indirect subsidy, even though it’s coming out of different buckets of money.

And so, what they’re pushing for is basically a nationwide restriction on any plan that gets a federal subsidy paying for abortion. So, this would have the most impact in the states where all plans on the ACA market are required to cover abortion, in states like California, New York, and Massachusetts, big states with many, many millions of people. And so that would have a huge impact and force those plans to either drop abortion coverage or forgo the federal subsidy. So, that would have a really big impact.

And Democrats say this is not necessary. There’s already restrictions that prevent federal funding to go to pay for abortion. And that is what the senators and everyone can’t agree on right now.

Rovner: That’s right. And that’s a big fund. Well, we’ll see where that goes. In the meantime, what the president was talking about when he called for flexibility on Hyde was actually health care writ large.

This clearly reflects what we know the president’s pollster has been telling him: that Republicans are currently at a distinct public disadvantage when it comes to health care, and not just the Affordable Care Act. Trump says that Republicans should, again, air quotes, try to “own” the health care issue. And he has spent a good bit of his first year working on health issues. At least he’s been talking about them a lot, but it turns out that his s are not mostly being felt by consumers here in the U.S.

The savings he’s negotiated are mostly going to the state and federal Medicare and Medicaid programs, as well as to people willing and able to pay out-of-pocket for their prescription drugs. And while the administration is making much of its December announcement about the first distribution of rural health funding that was authorized in last summer’s budget bill, that $50 billion in funding won’t make much of a dent compared to the nearly $1 trillion in cuts that were created for Medicaid in that same bill. So, my question from all of this is: Can Republicans use things like this to own the health care issue or at least cut into Democrats’ advantage between now and the midterms?

Weber: Well, I think it depends on what they end up doing with it. He brought up in that same meeting with legislators wanting to own IVF [in vitro fertilization], which is something he floated during his campaign that got a lot of shock from [the] conservative Republican base. So, what does he mean? What is he saying on that? We don’t have particulars.

Bottom line is, voters don’t necessarily know the in-the-weeds policy. So, if he gets out there and says enough things, who knows that they can own the health care issue? But I would say for now that it is solely in the Democrats’ camp and is helping lead them with an advantage for midterms for now.

Rovner: Sarah, he keeps saying on drug prices that he’s done all this stuff, and he has done a lot of stuff, but it hasn’t had a big dent in what people pay for their drugs, right?

Karlin-Smith: Right. And I think the one reason drug pricing has been a popular health policy topic for politicians to focus on is because people really can feel it directly compared to how they feel other health costs. And so, I think that there’s only a certain amount of time where people will just accept Trump saying, Oh, we’re saving you money, without them actually seeing it on the back end. And the problem right now is these most-favored-nation deals where he’s struck privately with a lot of drug companies to get Medicaid, really mostly at this point, in theory lower prices.

It’s not clear how much money it’s actually going to save Medicaid because Medicaid actually gets some of the best deals that the U.S. gets. Most people on Medicaid actually don’t really directly pay copays for most of their products, either. The other problem is they’ve then rolled out a number of other drug-pricing models to try and pair this concept, again, of getting the prices a lot of other countries get for drugs in the U.S., but they then exempted all these companies they’ve struck these private deals with.

So, it’s not really clear who is left in terms of drug companies and drug products. Then you might get cheaper prices under some of these other demonstrations, which by their nature, these are demonstration pilot programs that are not going to reach every Medicare beneficiary they’re pushing for. So, I think it’s going to be a big problem because many people are not actually going to see savings.

For people that have a decent amount of income and can afford some of these direct-to-consumer products where health insurers have often been denying it — like the weight loss, common popular weight loss drugs — some people may feel a little benefit there. But if you’re somebody who’s underinsured or uninsured, even if there’s really good discounts on a direct-to-consumer buying market, you’re probably also still not going to be able to afford these weight loss drugs.

Rovner: Yes, Lauren.

Weber: Just to go back to the rural health fund disbursement, I just have so many thoughts on this, because I mean, at the end of the day, rural hospitals are also the equivalent of rural jobs programs for rural America. And typically, rural hospitals fall in red America. And so, this attempt to prop them up, it sounds flashy, right? I mean, it’s billions of dollars. But when you break it down by the 50 states, it’s hundreds of millions, like tops like $281 million depending on the state.

That’s not going to cover the deficit that the bill has created for those folks. And I understand that it’s meant by the administration to be a flashy way of, Oh, we’re supporting rural health care, but the crushing Medicaid cuts that these rural hospitals are going to face, when they already operate on such thin margins, will be devastating. I mean, it will be devastating for already health care deserts that we already see, and this money is not going to be enough to stop the blood flow there in rural America.

Rovner: And Alice, you guys at Politico pointed out that even this $50 billion was not exactly distributed based on need, right? It was distributed based on deals.

Ollstein: Yes. And to build on Lauren’s point, not only is it not enough to make up for the Medicaid cuts, but there are restrictions. States can only use a little fraction of the money to keep these rural hospitals’ lights on, basically. The money is supposed to be for these transformative projects. It’s very tech focused. It’s very, Let’s try these pilot programs and completely revamp the way rural health care is delivered. Meanwhile, there are all these rural hospitals on the brink of closure, and states aren’t allowed to spend a lot of the money on just paying the salaries of the people who work there, paying for keeping the buildings in good shape. And so, we could see benefit from this money, but we could also, in the meantime, see a bunch more rural hospitals close, as they have been. And once they close, it’s really hard to come back.

And so, to your point, the way the money was distributed is getting a lot of criticism from all around the country because, one, a lot of it was split evenly between states regardless of the size of their population. And so, you saw, for instance, Alaska get more than California despite having a tiny, tiny sliver of its population. And I had people arguing with me online saying, Well, what about the rural population? Yes, California has a huge rural population. It’s not just LA and San Francisco. So, even if you only count the rural population, it’s much, much, much bigger than Alaska.

Also, there were these policy incentives in the program where states that adopted Trump-administration-friendly policies — like restrictions on what people can buy with SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program], on implementing the presidential fitness test, on deregulating short-term insurance plans, which Democrats have criticized and called junk plans — these would get the states more money if they adopted these policies. So, we’ve been digging into that and digging into the struggles on the state level on that front.

Rovner: All right. Well, that’s the rural health news. We’re going to take a quick break. We will be right back.

So, the other big news out of HHS [the Department of Health and Human Services] was on the vaccine front where Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made unilaterally a major change to the federal government’s childhood vaccine schedule, reducing the number of diseases with explicit vaccine recommendations from 17 to 11. No longer recommended for all children will be vaccines to protect against flu, covid, rotavirus, hepatitis A, and the germs that cause meningitis. Sarah, you’re the mom here on this panel today. How is this schedule change actually going to affect parents and children and doctors?

Karlin-Smith: I think a lot of it is going to depend [on] how the pediatrician health community reacts to this, because there’s been a lot of pushback from the medical public health community that this is not an appropriate or scientifically based change. So, doctors may still guide parents to hopefully making the decision to get these vaccines, but parents who may be a little hesitant, maybe feel more comfortable backing out.

Despite sometimes the rhetoric you hear from this administration, states are really the ones that end up creating policies that end up with actual mandates for people to get vaccinated for school and so forth. So, states may build off this and change their mandates, and that may impact access, but they may also not. So, people may still have to, for school purposes, get some of these shots as well.

Rovner: And I should point out that the American Academy of Pediatrics is fighting this, I would say tooth and nail, but also in court. I mean, they’re actually suing, saying that Kennedy didn’t even have the authority to make this change without going through a much more detailed regulatory process.

So, the administration says that all the vaccines currently on the schedule will remain, quote, “covered by insurance,” but I’m not positive that’s necessarily going to be the case in the long term, right? Isn’t mandatory insurance coverage linked to the recommendations of the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]? And if these are no longer actually recommended, are they no longer required to be covered?

I know the insurance industry, we’ve talked about this, has said that they’re going to continue to cover all the vaccines at least through 2026. But I’m wondering about the legality. I tried to track this back, but I couldn’t find it all the way.

Ollstein: We could see a patchwork because a lot of states are moving to change their own laws about insurance coverage and have it be based on something other than these federal recommendations. I think that obviously patchworks are challenging when you’re talking about infectious diseases, which do not respect state or national boundaries, but Sarah can say more.

Rovner: Go ahead, Sarah.

Karlin-Smith: Yeah. To build on Alice’s comment, and the thing that gets really confusing really fast always with U.S. health care is states can regulate certain insurance plans and states cannot regulate certain insurance plans, the ERISA [Employee Retirement Income Security Act] plans. So, you could end up, even if states want to mandate coverage, depending on the type of health care coverage you get in your state, you may live in that state, work in that state, and you’re not going to get covered. So, that adds to the patchwork and always adds to the confusion when trying to explain that issue to people.

But the administration has claimed basically because the vaccines, they’re no longer universally recommended — they’re moving to what’s called the shared decision-making recommendation, where people are supposed to consult with their doctor and figure out whether these vaccines are appropriate for them and their children — that that still, under the way laws and regulations are written, requires the mandatory coverage for health care and no copays and so forth.

And I’ve talked to people who’ve looked at this, and there is precedent for that with other vaccines. I think there’s some concerns, however, that that could be challenged by people in court who don’t want these vaccines to be covered. There’s also concern when it comes to like the HPV [human papillomavirus] vaccine, which they’re now only recommending one shot of instead of two.

In that case, because they’ve really fully eliminated the recommendation for a second shot, if somebody felt like they wanted that two-series shot, I don’t think that would be covered. And the other question is, while they didn’t use the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to make these changes for the most part. And they are largely advisory, but they do have certain legal authority when it comes to vaccines for children’s program, and their legal authority from Congress very much relates to the coverage and reimbursement. So, it’ll be interesting to see, again, if this all aligns.

Rovner: And we should point out that the Vaccines for Children Program, which many people have never heard of, is actually responsible for vaccinating something like half of all children in the United States. It’s a huge program that’s just basically invisible but really, really important.

Karlin-Smith: Right. And so, I think there’s going to be legal questions that they didn’t vote on those reimbursement questions here.

Rovner: Yeah. There’s a lot that’s going to have to be sorted out here. Well, one of the arguments that HHS officials are making is that they compared the U.S. vaccine schedule to that of, quote, “peer nations” like Denmark, but those peer nations have something the U.S. does not: universal health insurance. That can make a really big difference in vaccine uptake and in just the prevalence of disease, right?

Karlin-Smith: Yeah. And so, one thing that people have tried to look at and explain in recent days is the U.S. isn’t actually that different from most of its peers. Denmark, some have made the case, is actually the outlier. And if you look at Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia, the amount of pathogens, viruses the U.S. is vaccinating against is actually much more in line with most of the peer population. And then when you have a country like Denmark, which has universal health insurance …

Rovner: And a very small population.

Karlin-Smith: Right. I mean, it’s very different, but they’ve made in some cases the calculus that if we don’t vaccinate for rotavirus, and we are able to treat the however many kids each year will need to be hospitalized and treated, and you have a certain comfort — I don’t think that most parents would like the idea of knowing your kid is going to get sick and need to be hospitalized maybe or treated — but there’s a lot more comfort that they would get care, and quick care, and would do better there. But they certainly are not, and there’s data to show, [they] don’t do as well as the U.S. does in terms of the amount of people that get some of these diseases.

The other thing with some of the vaccines I noted that like some of these comparison countries don’t cover is they’re newer and they’re still more expensive. So, sometimes one of the reasons these countries are choosing not to recommend them more broadly is because they’re making decisions based on the fact that they have universal health care — the taxpayers pay for it — and then deciding that at this point, the pricing is not affordable. They’re not making a decision saying if the cost was zero, that the risk-benefit calculus isn’t favorable for people.

Rovner: Right. And it’s all about the risk-benefit calculus. So, one thing we know is that the rise in vaccine hesitancy is leading to outbreaks of previously rare diseases in the U.S., including measles and pertussis, or whooping cough. Lauren, you’ve got a really cool story this week with a tool that can help people figure out if they and their families are at risk. So, tell us about it.

Weber: Yeah. My colleagues at The Washington Post, including Caitlin Gilbert, and I set out last year to tell people across the country what their . And so, we requested records from all 50 states and were able to get school-based records for about, I think, 36 of them and county-based records for vaccination records for 44 states. So, we have a nifty tool where you can look up in your local community what your vaccination rates are.

But taking a step back, what we found in our reporting is that before the pandemic, rates weren’t looking that great. Only half of the country was making 95% vaccination against measles, which is herd immunity. After the pandemic, that dropped to 28%.

And what we found in digging in a lot deeper is that schools, which were once considered kind of this bulwark against infectious disease, because they’re the ones who would enforce whether or not you needed your shots to attend school, are somewhat stepping away from that responsibility in the politically charged environment that is America today. I spoke to a superintendent in Minnesota, which has seen a large drop in vaccination for measles, who said, Look, I’m a record keeper. It’s not my job to promote a medical decision.

And you see that attitude across the country in school nurses and so on where maybe they’re not being empowered by their superintendent or principal to draw the line, or they’re valuing the child going to school over getting vaccinated. And so, there’s a lot of talk about at the state level that we have these mandates for vaccination, but if they’re not enforced and there’s no mechanism to enforce them, our investigation found that you had these slipping rates.

And a lot of folks are really concerned. Because look to South Carolina. You have hundreds of kids quarantined and missing school; you have hundreds of people infected. And, in general, measles cases were at their highest in 33 years last year. So, we have this rise of infectious disease amid an administration headed by a man who has disparaged vaccines for years and is working to roll back policy around them.

Rovner: Is there any talk from Capitol Hill on … we’ve talked so much about Sen. Bill Cassidy [R-La.], who’s a doctor, who was the deciding vote for RFK Jr. and said that he got RFK Jr. to promise not to change the vaccine schedule, which he just did. But it’s not just Cassidy. There’s 534 other members of Congress. Is anybody pushing back on any of this?

Weber: I mean, Cassidy tweeted after the vaccine change that he was appalled. I’m a physician. My job is to protect children. This is a problem. At the end of the day, the person who runs HHS is a man who has repeatedly linked the rising number of vaccines, which are rising because we have more vaccines that can fight more pathogens, to chronic conditions that experts say is not based in evidence.

And so, no, I do not see a massive Capitol Hill pushback. I mean, you have frustration and irritation, but I don’t see Cassidy hauling Kennedy in for a hearing. Hasn’t happened yet, really, besides those couple that were mandated. So, we’ll see how this continues to play out.

But the reality is amid all of this talk of vaccine schedules, the people on the front lines of this are these school nurses or pediatricians who are met with a wave of parents who are so confused. I talked to so many pediatricians who said, Look, we refer to the AAP, the American Academy of Pediatrics, but it’s really hard when the president and the head of the health system is saying something different to convince parents that may be confused. And oftentimes, if you’re confused, it’s easier to not take action, to not get your child vaccinated than to do so. And…

Rovner: And because pediatricians don’t already have enough to do.

Weber: Right. Many are scared that these trends that we identified in our investigation will continue to worsen in the years to come.

Rovner: Well, also this week we got the new food pyramid recommendations from HHS and the Department of Agriculture. Food, obviously another big priority for RFK Jr., who, as we know, is a fan of red meat and whole-fat dairy. Unlike the vaccine schedule, though, the changes to the food pyramid appear, at least at first blush, to hew to fairly consensus opinions in the nutrition world that whole foods are better than processed foods, protein is good, added sugar and refined carbohydrates are bad.

Still, when you get into the details, there are some things that are likely to cause nutrition scientists, some, shall we say, indigestion. What are some of the more controversial recommendations here other than Dr. [Mehmet] Oz saying in Wednesday’s press briefing that you might not want to drink alcohol for breakfast?

Ollstein: So, the alcohol piece has gotten pushback because it’s weakening the previous recommendation that really no amount of alcohol is safe. We talked before about a report about alcohol as a carcinogen that was buried last year, a government report that had been worked on for years that was supposed to come out that got buried by the Trump administration. And so that I think is reflected in these new recommendations. And I saw a lot of conservatives celebrating this and saying, Happy hour’s back, everyone! But look, there’s real science that shows the dangers of even moderate alcohol consumption, and that’s getting sidelined here.

Rovner: The previous recommendations were that, I would say the previous recommendations were like no more than one drink a day for women and two for men, and they took that away? I think that was the actual change here.

Ollstein: There was a push to say that no amount is safe, basically, that even small amounts are potentially harmful to health.

Rovner: And that didn’t happen.

Ollstein: Correct, correct. The other concern I was hearing is about the emphasis on red meat when that is something that Americans eat too much of already.

Rovner: Although I know there’s an irony here that I think the new recommendations state, you still shouldn’t have more than 10% of your calories from saturated fat. But saturated fat isn’t nearly as bad as we used to think it was, Sarah. I see you nodding.

Karlin-Smith: Yeah. I think the saturated fat and the focus on the sources of fat and protein is one of the biggest controversies here because there is lots of research and evidence that saturated fat can lead to heart disease and other medical complications. And people have long been pushed toward plant-based proteins, leaner proteins, and the role of dairy, and whether you should be doing high-fat dairy as well.

And there’s been some good reporting from Stat and others of recent days that there was a lot of who was making these recommendations around their relationships with these various industries. They tried to avoid contradicting the science too much in how they made their push for more red meat and more saturated fat. But it’s probably another area where, if you read it in full, you’re going to get confused and you may not end up making the right decisions because some of the recommendations there are kind of contradictory.

Rovner: Although we’ll point out that the difference between the nutrition guidelines and the vaccine schedule is very large because the new nutrition guidelines are just that. They’re guidelines. They do determine what gets served in school lunches and things like that, but it’s not quite nearly of the level that the vaccine schedule is.

Well, finally this week, turning to reproductive health, the Wyoming Supreme Court struck down two abortion bans, kind of remarkable for one of the reddest states in the nation. Interestingly, one of the reasons the bans were struck down is because the state tried to thwart the Affordable Care Act back in 2012. Alice, explain what these two things have to do with each other.

Ollstein: Yes. So, the state adopted some laws saying that people have the right to make their own health care decisions, and that was squarely aimed at the Affordable Care Act. However, the judges found that it also applied to the right to have an abortion.

Rovner: Oops.

Ollstein: They said, Based on the text of this law, it doesn’t matter what you meant it to say. It matters what it actually says. And we find that it applies here.

That’s actually not the only state where that’s happened over the past few years. There have been other conservative states that have inadvertently protected the right to abortion through these right-to-control-your-own-health care provisions. So, I think we’ve seen over the past few years that state constitutions can be more protective of abortion than the federal Constitution in certain circumstances. But I think it’s also notable that Wyoming had one of the first laws specifically banning abortion pills, and that was also struck down.

So, nothing changes in practice, because these laws were already enjoined and were not being enforced, but it is a big deal. And it could lead to more efforts to hold the ballot referendums that we’ve seen over the past few years. There are set to be a few more this fall, but there could be even more following decisions like this in the courts.

Rovner: Yeah. Along those lines, there’s a really interesting piece in The Guardian that suggests that , but not so much for Republicans, most of whom still consider it a deal breaker for a candidate not to agree with them. What happened to all that enthusiasm for abortion rights that we saw in 2023 and 2024 to some extent?

Ollstein: Look, there’s a lot going on right now. So, it may be that just other issues are overshadowing this. And also, it’s a long way to go before the elections. We do not know what’s going to happen.

If various court cases lead to a big change, another big change in abortion access, this could rear its head once again. As we’ve discussed many times, this is not really ever over or settled.

Rovner: All right. Well, it is January. All right. That is this week’s news, or at least as much as we had time for.

Now, it’s time for our extra credit segment. That’s where we each recognize the story we read this week. We think you should read, too. Don’t worry if you miss it. We will post the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Lauren, why don’t you start us off this week?

Weber: Yeah. I have to shout out another investigation my colleagues and I completed led by Rachel Roubein and Lena Sun and I. [“”] We dug into the first year of Kennedy in office. In interviews with nearly a hundred folks and documents, we uncovered some of his previously undisclosed shaping of vaccine policy. We got ahold of an email in which a top aide asked to replace the membership of ACIP and reconsider the universal hep B vaccine recommendation and revisit the use of multidose flu shot vials. We also analyzed how while Kennedy has talked about food twice as much as vaccines while in office, one of his advisers, Del Bigtree, told us, Look, food is more popular with the American mom. And I think some of these revelations shape and put into context what we’re seeing now, which is this culmination of changing the vaccine schedule and continued policy to upend public health infrastructure in this country.

Rovner: That’s a really good piece. Alice.

Ollstein: So, I have a very depressing piece out of San Francisco called, “” This is yet another death of a young person after heavily using some of these LLMs [large language models] for advice. Some of the chat logs show that he was able to very easily circumvent the protections that were put in place.

ChatGPT is not supposed to give people advice on using drugs recreationally, but that is very easily circumvented by pretending it’s a hypothetical question or various other means. And this article does a good job showing that it’s really a garbage-in-garbage-out scenario. ChatGPT is drawing from the entire internet. And so somebody’s dumb post on Reddit by a person who has a substance abuse issue, for instance, could be informing what advice the bot gives you. And so I think this is especially important to keep in mind as, just this week, ChatGPT is launching, making a big push, launching a whole health-care-focused chatbot and encouraging millions of people to use it.

And so this article … quotes experts who argue that it’s not possible to prevent this bad advice from getting in there, just because these chatbots are trained on huge volumes of text from the entire internet. It’s not possible to weed out things like this. And so I think that’s important to keep in mind.

Rovner: So, what could possibly go wrong? Sarah.

Karlin-Smith: I took a look at some ProPublica pieces on the impact of the U.S.’ USAID cuts [“”]. One of the stories that I looked at was “” It’s just a really deep dive into the decisions that these political leaders made to cut off aid and support for various countries. This one, in particular, was looking at South Sudan, even though they were warned that they would make certain disease outbreaks and other humanitarian situations worse. And it just goes through the hardship of that, as well as the fact that Trump administration officials were making claims throughout this time, once there was pushback, that they were going to not cut off certain life-supporting aid and so forth. And that was not actually the case. They did cut it off, and they did it in ways that were extremely abrupt and fast, that there could not be any safety valve or stopgap to prevent the harm that occurred.

Rovner: Yeah. It’s quite the series and really heavy but really good. My extra credit this week comes from my colleague Fred Schulte, who’s moved on from uncovering malfeasance in Medicare Advantage to uncovering malfeasance in cosmetic surgery. This one is called “Advertisements Promising Patients a ‘Dream Body’ With Minimal Risk Get Little Scrutiny.”

And if you’ve ever been tempted by one of those body-sculpting commercials promising quick results, little pain, and an immediate return to your daily routine, you really need to read this story first. It includes a long list of patients who either died of complications of allegedly minimally invasive techniques or who ended up in the hospital and with scars that have yet to heal. Many of the lawsuits filed in these cases are still in process, but it is definitely “buyer beware.”

OK, that is this week’s show. Hope you feel at least a little bit caught up. As always, thanks to our editor, Emmarie Huetteman, and this week’s producer engineer, Zach Dyer.

A reminder, What the Health? is now available on WAMU platforms, the NPR app, and wherever you get your podcasts, as well as, of course, kffhealthnews.org. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org, or you can find me still on X, , or on Bluesky, . Where are you folks hanging these days? Lauren.

Weber: I am on X, , and same thing on these days.

Rovner: Sarah?

Karlin-Smith: Mostly and at @sarahkarlin-smith.

Rovner: Alice.

Ollstein: Mostly on Bluesky, , and still on X, .

Rovner: We will be backing your feed next week. Until then, be healthy.

Credits

Zach Dyer Audio producer
Emmarie Huetteman Editor

Click here to find all our podcasts.

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ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

This article first appeared on ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and is republished here under a .

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One Big Beautiful Bill Act Complicates State Health Care Affordability Efforts /health-care-costs/health-costs-spending-affordability-hospitals-california-one-big-beautiful-bill/ Tue, 16 Dec 2025 10:00:00 +0000 /?post_type=article&p=2131203 As Congress debates whether to extend the temporary federal subsidies that have of Americans buy health coverage, a crucial underlying reality is sometimes overlooked: Those subsidies are merely a band-aid covering the often unaffordable cost of health care.

California, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and have set caps on health care spending in a bid to rein in the intense financial pressure felt by many families, individuals, and employers who every year face increases in premiums, deductibles, and other health-related expenses.

Hospitals and other health care providers are citing Republicans’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by President Donald Trump in July, as one more reason to challenge those limits.

The law is expected to reduce federal Medicaid spending by over a decade, which mathematically should help the overall health care system meet the caps. But the law is also expected to increase the number of uninsured Americans, mostly Medicaid beneficiaries, by an estimated . Health care analysts predict hospitals and other providers will raise prices to cover the double whammy of lost Medicaid revenue and the cost of caring for an influx of newly uninsured patients.

Whether regulators in some states will allow providers to justify higher prices and exceed the spending caps is unclear. Only can penalize providers financially if they fail to meet targets.

“Are we going to say, ‘That’s OK’? Or are we going to say, ‘Well, you exceeded the target. We’re still going to penalize you for that’?” said Richard Pan, a former state lawmaker and a member of the California Office of Health Care Affordability’s board. “That has not yet been decided.”

The California Hospital Association, the industry’s main state lobbying group, in October asking a state court to strike down the spending caps, which it argued fail to account for all the cost pressures hospitals face. Those pressures, it said, include an aging, sicker population; the of labor; expensive advances in medical technology; large capital outlays on required seismic retrofitting; and changes in federal policy, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The hospital group’s lawsuit also asserted that the state affordability office, by hastily imposing ill-considered cost-cutting targets, was undermining its other key mission of improving health care access, quality, and equity.

California’s affordability office last year set a five-year target to cap statewide spending growth, starting at 3.5% in 2025 and declining to 3% by 2029. The annual caps apply to a wide range of health care entities, including hospitals, medical groups, insurers, and other payers.

Earlier this year, it imposed much lower spending growth caps — starting at 1.8% in 2026 and declining to 1.6% by 2029 — for .

“The spending caps set by politically appointed bureaucrats could force cuts that result in many Californians traveling farther for care, facing longer emergency room wait times, experiencing more overcrowding, and losing access to critical services,” Carmela Coyle, the hospital association’s president and CEO, said in an October press release.

The California attorney general’s office, which will represent the affordability agency, has not yet filed a response to the hospital group’s complaint and did not respond to a request for comment.

Hospitals’ Pushback

California is not the only state taking a close look at hospital prices, which are widely considered a of health care costs.

“States, armed with information that points to payments to hospitals as a driver of what is way beyond affordable commercial premiums, have begun to take increasingly targeted actions focused on commercial hospital prices,” said Michael Bailit, founder of the Needham, Massachusetts-based consultancy , which has advised multiple states, including California, on ways to tame health care spending. “It is not surprising that the hospital industry is going to oppose such state actions.” 

In its lawsuit, the California Hospital Association said the affordability office’s own report showed that pharmaceutical and insurance companies are largely responsible for high costs.

Hospitals in some states with cost growth limits, including and , have expressed objections similar to the ones raised in the California lawsuit. They could follow their counterparts in California if their lawsuit succeeds, said Peter Lee, who led California’s Affordable Care Act marketplace, Covered California, for and is now a at Stanford Medicine’s Clinical Excellence Research Center.

Lee said the work of California’s affordability office and similar agencies in other states is just about the only systemwide effort being made to cut health care costs. They are basically saying, “‘Look, health care is taking money away from education, it is taking money away from the environment, it is taking money away from everything in the public sector, and in the private sector it is taking money away from wages,’” he said. “‘We don’t know how you, the health system, are going to do it, but it is your job not just to provide quality but to lower costs. Here’s the target.’”

To be sure, achieving the cost savings that California and those other states are seeking is no easy lift. It will ultimately require persuading large, financially powerful players that compete fiercely for health care dollars to adopt a different mindset and begin cooperating to reduce costs instead. And that, in many cases, will mean lower revenue.

But the status quo, as many people know all too well, means continued financial pain for millions.

In early 2020, Estevan Rodriguez, a bartender at California’s Monterey Beach Hotel, had surgery for a staph infection in his leg. The bill came to nearly $168,000. His insurance paid most of it, but he still owed $5,665, which took him two years to pay, more than $200 every month. “It may not be a lot to some people, but it was a lot to me,” Rodriguez said.

He said he dropped his Hulu subscription, switched to a lower-cost cellphone, and got cheaper car insurance. He started going to food banks rather than the grocery store, he said, and had a lot less time with his kids, because he was constantly working to pay off the hospital bill.

, where Rodriguez had his surgery, is one of the seven hospitals identified by California’s affordability office as high-cost. A attributed high hospital prices in Monterey County to a lack of market competition “rather than higher operating costs or superior quality of care.”

The Monterey hospital referred a request for comment about its “high-cost” designation to the California Hospital Association. CHA spokesperson Jan Emerson-Shea declined to comment beyond the language of the lawsuit and Coyle’s press release statement.

Reduced Competition

Health care analysts worry the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will reduce market competition even further by stressing already weak hospitals, leading some to shut services, merge with larger health systems, or close. One study estimates are at risk of closing nationwide.

Less competition, in addition to fewer Medicaid dollars and an increase in uninsured patients, will only strengthen the incentive of health systems with the requisite market clout to raise their commercial prices, increasing premiums for employers and individuals.

“We think commercial prices will continue to increase as health care providers, and hospitals in particular, will seek to preserve or increase their revenue,” said Rachel Block, a program officer at the Milbank Memorial Fund, a foundation that focuses on health equity.

That in turn could pose a challenge to state affordability regulators tasked with overseeing compliance with growth targets for health care spending.

California’s affordability office is required to consider mitigating factors, including changes in federal and state laws. But some of its board members have expressed skepticism about letting hospitals offset Medicaid losses with higher commercial prices.

“There’s a lot of talk about using HR 1 and other federal policies as an excuse to raise prices on commercial payers,” Ian Lewis, an affordability office board member and policy director for UNITE HERE Local 2, a hospitality workers union in the Bay Area, said at the agency’s , referring to the One Big Beautiful Bill. “There’s no more blood to be squeezed from this stone.”

ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

This article first appeared on ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and is republished here under a .

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Crunch Time for ACA Tax Credits /podcast/what-the-health-426-obamacare-aca-extension-rfk-vaccines-december-11-2025/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 20:40:00 +0000 /?p=2130316&post_type=podcast&preview_id=2130316 The Host
Julie Rovner photo
Julie Rovner ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Read Julie's stories. Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ weekly health policy news podcast, "What the Health?" A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book "Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z," now in its third edition.

Congress is running out of time to avert a huge increase in health care premium payments for millions of Americans who buy insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplaces. Dec. 15 is the deadline to sign up for coverage that begins Jan. 1, and some consumers are waiting to see whether the credits will be extended, enabling them to afford coverage next year.

Meanwhile, a federal vaccine advisory panel handpicked by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted last week to end the universal recommendation for a hepatitis B vaccine dose at birth. It’s just the start of what are expected to be major changes in childhood vaccine recommendations overall.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Anna Edney of Bloomberg News, Maya Goldman of Axios, and Sheryl Gay Stolberg of The New York Times.

Panelists

Anna Edney photo
Anna Edney Bloomberg News
Maya Goldman photo
Maya Goldman Axios
Sheryl Gay Stolberg photo
Sheryl Gay Stolberg The New York Times

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • As of Thursday morning, the Senate was preparing to vote on competing health proposals, neither of which was expected to pass: one, from Democrats, that would extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits and a second, from Republicans, that would instead add money to health savings accounts for some ACA enrollees. With the credits set to expire and time running out to sign up for plans, it is likely that coverage will be unaffordable for some Americans, leaving them uninsured.
  • The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ decision to end its recommendation that newborns be immunized against hepatitis B is a major development in the federal government’s shift away from promoting vaccines. While the panel coalesced around the claim that babies are most likely to contract hepatitis B from their mothers, the reality is that the virus can live on household items, posing a threat of chronic disease and death to unvaccinated children.
  • In reproductive health news, House Speaker Mike Johnson removed insurance coverage of fertility treatment for service members from the National Defense Authorization Act before the legislation’s passage, and anti-abortion groups are calling for the firing of Food and Drug Administration head Marty Makary over reports he is slow-walking policy changes on medication abortion.

Also this week, Rovner interviews Georgetown University professor Linda Blumberg about what the GOP’s health plans have in common.

Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read (or wrote) this week that they think you should read, too: 

Julie Rovner: The Washington Post’s “,” by David Ovalle.  

Anna Edney: Bloomberg News’ “,” by Anna Edney.  

Sheryl Gay Stolberg: The New York Times’ “,” by Katie J.M. Baker.

Maya Goldman: ProPublica’s “,” by Aliyya Swaby.

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

  • Politico’s “,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein, Ruth Reader, and Liz Crampton.
  • The New York Times’ “,” by Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Christina Jewett.
  • Bloomberg News’ “,” by Charles Gorrivan, Riley Griffin, and Rachel Cohrs Zhang.
  • The Associated Press’ “,” by Ali Swenson and Nicky Forster.
Click to open the transcript Transcript: Crunch Time for ACA Tax Credits

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.] 

Julie Rovner: Hello from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and WAMU Public Radio in Washington, D.C. Welcome to What the Health? I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Dec. 11, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might have changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. Today, we are joined via video conference by Anna Edney of Bloomberg News. 

Anna Edney: Hi, Julie. 

Rovner: Maya Goldman of Axios News. 

Goldman: Great to be here. 

Rovner: And I’m pleased to welcome to the podcast panel my friend and longtime health reporting colleague, Sheryl Gay Stolberg of The New York Times. Sheryl, so glad to have you join us. 

Stolberg: I’m so glad to be here, Julie. 

Rovner: So, later in this episode, we’ll have my interview with Linda Blumberg of Georgetown University. Linda has spent years analyzing Republican proposals to fix health care and has some interesting observations to share. But first, this week’s news. 

We will start again with the continuing saga of the expiring enhanced tax credits for the Affordable Care Act. Starting Jan. 1, millions of people who get their insurance from the Obamacare marketplaces will face huge increases in what they have to pay in premiums. Some will find those increases so big they’ll have no choice but to drop their insurance altogether. And next Monday, Dec. 15, is the deadline for people to sign up for coverage that starts in January. So, the Senate is set to vote today on two different options. The first, backed by all the chamber’s Democrats, calls for a straight, three-year extension of the enhanced payments that were first implemented in 2021. Those extra payments made insurance so much more affordable that enrollment basically doubled from about 12 million people in the marketplaces to about 24 million. That bill, though, is unlikely to achieve the 60-vote majority it would need to advance. The Senate is also scheduled to consider a Republican alternative, sponsored by Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo of Idaho and Health Committee Chair Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. It wouldn’t extend the enhanced tax credits at all. Instead, it would provide either $1,000 or $1,500 for a tax-preferred health savings account that individuals could use for routine health expenses to be coupled with a high-deductible insurance policy. “High-deductible” meaning many thousands of dollars. It’s not expected to achieve 60 votes either. So, assuming both of these plans fail to muster the needed 60 votes, where does that leave us? 

Edney: I think that leaves us looking for what the next turn of the key will be. I mean, will they be able to come to some agreement on extending the tax credits â€” likely â€” or the subsidies â€” likely after. Like you said, enrollment has been underway, and people are enrolling even though they don’t really know what the fate of these will be. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the marketplace reacts given what happens. But I don’t think there’s a really clear idea yet, except that everyone thinks that something might start moving once these votes are dispensed with. 

Stolberg: I think what happens is that a lot of Americans are going to lose their health insurance. We know that the number of Americans insured on the Obamacare exchange is more than double after the enactment of these extended tax credits in 2021. I think there were 11 million; now there are 24 million. And people, as you said in the outset, have to decide now. And maybe they’ll sign up now. But if they lose these credits, I think that a lot of folks are going to suddenly find themselves without insurance coverage. And I think politically for Republicans, that is going to be a big problem going into next year’s midterms. They know this, and that’s why they’re scrambling to come up with some kind of alternative that does not have Obamacare in its name. But we also know that the alternatives that they’re proposing won’t go very far in terms of offsetting out-of-pocket costs for people who are struggling to pay for health care. 

Rovner: Things are starting to bubble up in the House, too. I mean, we’ve seen this. … We knew we were going to have this Senate vote, which is everybody protected by everyone to be a show vote, but now Republicans in the House are getting skittish as well. 

Goldman: Yeah, absolutely. And we’ve seen a couple different proposals in the House. So, there are some moderates that are Republican moderates that are proposing a straight, two-year extension. I think, like Anna said, we’ll see what happens after the Senate votes today, if that brings people to the table or not. I think one thing that struck me this week is The Associated Press reported that  are actually slightly ahead of where they were at this time last year. But of course, that doesn’t mean that that’s going to result in more overall enrollment. There is still a lot that needs to be ironed out there. One thing that I’m wondering is: Is health coverage just something that people are biting the bullet on at this point? And they’re like, Well, I know it’s really expensive, but I still need to have health insurance. And is that going to … even if people do drop off, we’re so far away, politically speaking, from the November elections, that, is that actually going to resonate still? I don’t know. 

Rovner: Yeah. I mean, one of the things that … I saw that AP story, too, that enrollment is actually higher than it was last year at this time. But you have to worry if there’s going to be what they call the death spiral, where only the people who need insurance the most sign up. You have to wonder whether these are the people who would sign up no matter what. And it’s the healthier people for whom it’s a bigger question mark â€” whether they actually need the health insurance at this much higher price â€” who are probably waiting right now. If you’re sick, you’re probably going to sign up no matter what. So, in some ways, I wondered if that was more of a warning signal than anything else. 

Goldman: That’s a great point. 

Stolberg: I think the death spiral is a real concern, especially with the plan that Cassidy and Crapo are putting forward. It would drive people into either catastrophic plans or “bronze” plans, which are lower costs, but high-deductible. And the people who are going to get into those plans are healthy people. That is going to deprive the risk pools for sick people of the healthy. And we know what happens when the risk pools become imbalanced like that. Then insurance costs really skyrocket for the people who need it most. 

Rovner: Yeah. Now, even if Republicans do decide they want to sue for peace, if you will, there are a lot of other obstacles to a bipartisan deal. We’ve talked about abortion. But it looks like there are other things that Republicans want to do that Democrats are not going to want to accept. 

Stolberg: Such as ending support for IVF [in vitro fertilization] coverage like they did in the defense bill this week? 

Rovner: Yeah, which we’ll get to in a little while. 

Stolberg: OK. 

Rovner: Yeah. I mean, I could see a bipartisan deal. I’m just dubious partly â€” and we’ve said this, I think, every week for the last five or six weeks â€” that Republicans won’t vote for an extension without permanent abortion restrictions, and Democrats won’t vote for an extension with permanent abortion restrictions. But I know that some of these Republican bills also would deprive legal immigrants. There are anti-fraud provisions, some of which might be supported by Democrats, some of which might be seen as so onerous that they would prevent legitimate people from legitimately signing up. Does anybody actually see a bipartisan deal happening? I guess how scared do Republicans have to get before they’re willing to do something that the Democrats would agree to? 

Stolberg: I don’t see a bipartisan bill happening in time. I mean, Cassidy said at this hearing last week, literally pleading with his colleagues saying, We can talk about grand plans, Bernie [Sanders, I-Vermont] can talk about “Medicare for All,” and we can talk about this, but we got to do something in three weeks. Well, now it’s two weeks, and they’re not going to come to some compromise, especially not one involving abortion or undocumented immigrants by Christmas. It’s not going to happen. 

Rovner: Yeah. Congress loves to give itself deadlines and then not meet them. 

Goldman: Absolutely. And I think we have Republicans with their grand plans, and you can’t implement a full HSA [health savings account] expansion in the time that they’ve allotted. That’s just not practicable. 

Rovner: Yeah. I think this is a war of talking points at this point. All right. Well, the ACA may be this week’s news, but I don’t want to miss out on the vaccine news from late last week after we taped. As predicted, HHS Secretary RFK Jr.’s [Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] handpicked CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] advisory committee on vaccine practices voted to roll back the universal recommendation for a first dose of the hepatitis B vaccine for infants, right after birth. Instead, the panel recommended making the vaccine the subject of “individual-based decision-making.” What’s the difference between that and actually recommending the vaccine? Is this a really big change? Anna, Sheryl, you guys have been watching this closely. 

Edney: Yeah, I think that it’s a big change in the sense that it can be pretty confusing for parents. And it injects this idea of the vaccine possibly being harmful â€” although that’s not something that’s seen in the data â€” and also that maybe it’s just not that big of a deal, which is the problem of the success of the vaccine is the vaccine works. Hepatitis B cases in newborns go down, and people think, Oh, well, we don’t really have to worry about this anymore. But that’s just not the case. Obviously, as we’ve seen with other diseases of late, these things can come back. 

And so I think it’s not going to change at the moment, at least, necessarily insurance coverage for having the vaccine, but it does leave open this door that, Well, maybe you should talk to your doctor, see if it’s really the best thing. And there’s just a lot coming at you as a new parent or a parent with a new child on the way, and a lot of medical advice to wade through, and things like that. So, this adds an extra piece to that for which a lot of the medical societies and doctors, Sen. Cassidy included, have said, This isn’t something that we’ve had a big question mark on. It’s been actually really, really helpful in the health of children. 

Rovner: Yeah. Hepatitis B cases in children and teens have gone down 99%. 

Stolberg: That’s right, since 1991. I was going to say, I think this is a really big deal. And it’s a really big deal for a couple of reasons. One, it’s not science-based. There’s no evidence that delaying the vaccine makes it any safer for children. Two, it’s a really big deal because of the debate that Kennedy and his allies have created around what was once not given any thought. And it’s also a big deal because, as doctors will tell you, in theory, one could argue, as Kennedy and his group do, that this is a disease that’s transmitted sexually, or it’s transmitted through intravenous drug use. And for infants, the real risk is mother-to-child transmission. Well, first of all, that’s not entirely true. The virus can last and live on household items like scissors, or tables, or whatever. We know that newborns are the ones that are most at risk. 

And we also know that the best time to capture or vaccinate a newborn is when they’re there in the hospital, and they have access to medical professionals who can administer the vaccine. And unlike countries like Denmark, which follow up their babies, our babies don’t get that kind of follow-up. And so the likelihood is that kids will not get vaccinated when they’re older. Parents will forget about it, and they will have missed that critical opportunity to be protected against an infection that can cause chronic liver disease and death. 

Goldman: Yeah. And there was a lot of discussion during the meeting on, Oh, well, we need to do a better job of screening the mothers for hepatitis B, and you should still get the newborn vaccine if you test positive, et cetera, et cetera. But that’s not ACIP’s [Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices] job to say that we should be screening mothers, so they don’t have any authority there to enforce that. And a CDC staff member said, We’re working on that. But, like Sheryl said, we don’t have the same kind of system that they have in other countries, where you can get those follow-up appointments, and get women in for prenatal care that they need. And so I agree, it’s going to be a huge, huge issue. 

Rovner: Yeah. Well, speaking of those other countries, later on Friday after the meeting, in news that some might have missed, President [Donald] Trump issued an executive order basically telling RFK Jr. that he can do anything he wants with the childhood vaccine schedule because he should compare it to our “peer nations.” Sheryl, you had a big story last week about . What are they? 

Stolberg: Well, what I reported with my colleague Christina Jewett is that Kennedy has been on this two-decade crusade to really upend American vaccine policy. Ultimately, he would like to end all mandates for childhood vaccination. That’s not within his purview. That’s in the purview of the states. But he wants to revisit the entire childhood vaccine schedule. And you can see in what he has done by installing his allies, some of whom presented at this ACIP meeting last week, he’s put them in key places. People like Mark Blaxill, who is a parent of a child with autism, who was a founder of a group called Safe Minds, which was an advocacy group. Mark Blaxill now works for the CDC. He’s a smart, Harvard-educated businessman, not a doctor, but he presented on hepatitis B. We saw Aaron Siri, Kennedy’s lawyer, presenting on the childhood vaccine schedule. 

This is a committee that is supposed to be comprised of medical experts â€” people who are physicians who’ve administered care. And what we are seeing is Kennedy installing these people and others, sprinkling them throughout the department, or bringing them in, to carry out his vision. And he was very clear about that vision in an interview with me. I mean, he firmly believes, as he said â€” he was careful â€” he said that autism has gone up over these past decades, and it’s the same time as the childhood vaccines have become … we’ve had more widespread use of vaccines. We’ve also had more widespread drinking of pumpkin spice lattes, as Kennedy’s critics note, but Kennedy has said vaccines must be a potential culprit. I thought that was very interesting that he put that word in â€” potential. It was a wiggle word. But frankly, what he thinks is that vaccines are responsible, and he has said as much in other interviews. 

Rovner: And yet, while this is going on at this very high level, we’re now having a huge and growing measles outbreak in South Carolina, in addition to the one that we’ve already had in Texas. This is really having an impact on parents’ willingness to have their children vaccinated. I mean, that, I think at this point, cannot be denied just by the evidence. 

Edney: Yeah. Fewer parents are getting their kids vaccinated for school. They’re getting more waivers and things like that, too. So, we do see that this is definitely giving parents who maybe had concerns, or have felt some kinship with the MAHA [Make America Healthy Again] movement as it’s grown, the ability to do what they feel is right, less so following the science. 

Stolberg: Peter Hotez, who is at Baylor University, told me that he was not surprised when there was a measles outbreak in Texas, and in particular in that part of West Texas, because vaccination rates in that corner of the state had been dropping precipitously in the years prior to the outbreak. And he said he could see it coming. 

Goldman: I think it’s also, it’s not just people that are very in line with the MAHA movement at this point. I think if you’re not paying as close of attention as we are, the messages that you’re seeing are, Vaccines are bad. We need to look into vaccines. I don’t know, should I get a vaccine? Should I give my children vaccines? And I think that’s really taking hold. 

Rovner: Another story that we’re going to follow into 2026. All right, we’re going to take a quick break. We will be right back.  

Turning to reproductive health, the last big bill Congress is trying to finish before leaving for the year is the National Defense Authorization [Act]. And for the second year in a row, House Speaker Mike Johnson has ordered the removal of a provision passed by both the House and the Senate that would provide military personnel the same fertility coverage that other federal employees and members of Congress get. Right now, fertility treatments like IVF are only covered for those in the military who have service-related injuries or illnesses. I thought this was a priority for President Trump. At least he keeps saying that it is. 

Stolberg: I think this is daylight between Trump and Mike Johnson, clearly. 

Rovner: I have to say, I was surprised. Since when can the speaker just take something out of a bill that was passed by both the House and the Senate? 

Stolberg: Also, not to mention that members of Congress have this coverage. 

Rovner: That’s right, which they only got fairly recently. I’m surprised that there’s, I would say, less pushback. There obviously is pushback. There are people who are really furious about this, but in the manner of how things work in Congress, this is literally the second time he’s done it. And his spokespeople admit that he did it. And he says, Well, I only want this if it’s done ethically. And a reminder, he’s from Louisiana, which is the state that has current restrictions on the destruction of excess embryos from IVF that’s made IVF difficult to obtain in that state. It’s one person exerting his will over the rest of the Congress. 

Stolberg: Yeah. I think that’s the most interesting thing about it is the daylight between Johnson and Trump and also Kennedy on this issue. Because while Trump and Kennedy profess to be anti-abortion, it’s not really a top-of-mind issue for either one of them. But it is for Johnson. And I guess I can’t imagine Trump vetoing the defense bill, so I guess this is going to go through. 

Rovner: Yeah, without it. Again. Well, speaking of who it’s a priority for, much [to] the frustration and anger of the anti-abortion movement, a new report finds that the percentage of medication abortions using telehealth continues to grow, including those from states with shield laws that protect prescribers to states that have abortion bans, to patients in those states that have abortion bans, which underlines a story from your colleagues at Bloomberg, Anna, suggesting that FDA commissioner Marty Makary is  of the abortion pill that was promised to anti-abortion lawmakers, that he’s apparently slow walking that until perhaps after the midterms. 

I hasten to add that HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon denies the studies being deliberately delayed. But just the story has angered anti-abortion forces so much [that] they’re now calling for Makary’s firing. And Missouri Republican Sen. Josh Hawley, who’s been at the forefront of the fight against the abortion pill, and I believe the person who got the promise for this study, has called the allegations unacceptable and is demanding answers by this Monday. Combined with what’s going on with the carousel of center directors at the FDA, how much longer can Makary last under this continuing onslaught? 

Edney: Yeah, what I was thinking of when you were talking about this story is this is just one in a tiny slice of all the things that seem to be coming at Makary and going wrong, and calling into question his ability to manage the FDA. I think specifically â€” you were just mentioning this with abortion, Sheryl â€” that it’s not top of mind for Trump or RFK. So, I’m not sure that this is the thing that does him in unless Sen. Hawley or something breaks on that end. Maybe there are some senators who will be upset enough as more, or if, more details come out. 

I think that definitely Makary appears to be fighting for his job. I think there have been some great stories in The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal talking about these discussions at the White House every few weeks, where should we keep doing this? Do we need to think of maybe putting someone different in leadership? He’s still there. And so, it seems that RFK is backing him pretty publicly. Obviously, that can change at a moment’s notice. So, something to keep a really close eye on. 

Goldman: Something that we’ve been talking about on my team related to that is that it’s going to be really hard to get anyone else approved through the Senate for any of these positions. And they can install an acting director, but there are limits to how long that can last. And so I think that that is maybe partially helping with some job security for a lot of these people at these high levels. 

Stolberg: I think it would be very hard to get someone else installed given the broken promises that Kennedy has made to Cassidy. They’re going to be very wary. And also, Makary is in the arc, or the spectrum, of people who could fill that job. He’s actually kind of moderate, if you will. And I talked to someone close to Kennedy who said that Kennedy still has confidence in him. So, his ouster, I think, would require the White House bigfooting Kennedy. And I’m not sure that that would happen. 

Rovner: And they have, as we’ve noticed, other things to deal with right now. Finally this week, remember that $50 billion Congress included for rural health in last summer’s big budget bill to offset the nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid? Well, now the Trump administration is effectively telling states that if they want to claim a share of that money, they need to make changes that align with other  â€” things like barring people from using food stamps for junk food, or legalizing short-term insurance plans that many states worry could destabilize the individual insurance market. Now, I wouldn’t call this outright coercion, but I remember that the Supreme Court basically did just that when they ruled that the ACA’s Medicaid expansion had to be voluntary. Is this really going to fly, that the Trump administration could say, You can’t have this money unless you do other things that we want you to do? 

Goldman: If I’m remembering correctly, all states that have all right to applications will get a baseline of money, and states can get more money for certain things that they apply for. And so I think that maybe that makes this a little different. But I think states will be very upset if they don’t get the money that they want, that they are asking for. And it’ll be interesting to see if there is legal action on the back end, too. 

Rovner: Yeah. I mean, clearly this $50 billion for rural health is not enough to even begin to make up for the cuts that are coming to Medicaid. So, we’re talking about small amounts of money. It’s just, I don’t remember seeing conditions that were quite this blatant. And you’re right, Maya, it’s not all of the money, but it is some segment of the money. But for them to just literally come out and say, We’re going to give you money if you do what we want. I would think at some point Congress gets to say, Hey, not what we had in mind. 

Stolberg: But Congress won’t say it. Not this Congress. 

Rovner: Yeah, not this Congress. So maybe a future Congress. All right. Well, that is this week’s news. Now, we will play my interview with Linda Blumberg of Georgetown University, and then we will come back and do our extra credits.  

I am pleased to welcome to the podcast Linda Blumberg. Linda is a research professor at Georgetown University and an institute fellow in the Health Policy Division of the Urban Institute, and one of my go-to people whenever I have a really complicated question about health policy. Linda, welcome to What the Health? 

Linda Blumberg: Thanks so much for having me here. 

Rovner: So, to the unpracticed eye, it looks like Republicans in the House and Senate are just now coming up with all these new and different health plans. But, in fact, most of them are variations on what Republicans have been pushing, not just for years, but for decades in some cases. Is there anything really new, or is this just a long list of golden oldies? 

Blumberg: I think this is basically a list of things that have been brought out before. Now, they have to present them and talk about them in the context of the Affordable Care Act, which they didn’t have to do many years ago. They’re working around in terms of what they’re impacting on the Affordable Care Act, and how these other pieces would fit in with what they want to do there. But they’re essentially the same things they’ve been talking about for a long time. 

Rovner: So, you’ve been analyzing these plans for years now. And while they may look different on the surface, you say they all have one thing in common: that they work to segment rather than pool risk. Can you explain that in layman’s terms? 

Blumberg: Sure. When I talk about segmenting health care risk, what I’m talking about is policies, or strategies that place more of the financial responsibility of paying for medical care on the people who need that care when they need it, or on those who are most likely to need medical care. That is the opposite of pooling risk more broadly, which actually takes health care costs and spreads them to a greater extent across people, both healthy and sick. 

Rovner: So basically, protecting sick people, which is the idea of health insurance in general, right? 

Blumberg: Well, from my perspective, yes. The situation is because there is â€” what we in economics call â€” a very skewed distribution of health care spending, that means that in any particular year, at any particular moment in time, most people are pretty healthy and don’t use much medical care, and the great bulk of health care spending falls on a small percentage of the population. And so, when you’re only looking in the short term, when you’re not looking broadly across time, or across somebody’s life, then people who, when you segment health care risk, you can create savings for people when they’re super healthy. The problem is that it increases the cost even more when they are not healthy, and none of us are healthy forever. 

Rovner: And just to be clear, the percentage of people who use the majority of health care is really, really tiny, isn’t it? 

Blumberg: Yeah. So, for example, there is a rule of thumb that around the top 5% of health care spenders account for basically half of all health care spending, and the bottom half of spenders account for less than 3% of health care spending. But that is at a particular moment in time, again. And I think the problem is when we think about health care spending as Who’s going to win? Who’s going to lose? in terms of money, right now, at a particular moment in time. Instead of thinking about what happens to us over the course of our lifetime, which is, then, when we spread the costs much more broadly, we’re more protected. We have access to adequate affordable health care under broad-based pooling of health care risk. When we segment it, we’re really making people much more vulnerable to not being able to get the care they need when they need it. 

Rovner: And how do things like health savings accounts, and giving consumers more power to go out and negotiate on their own, how do those actually segment risk? 

Blumberg: So, the more you take the dollars that are being spent on health care and remove it from the health insurance pool â€” the amount of money that is going to pay for claims through health insurance,  whether it’s public or private insurance â€” the more you take it out of the insurance pool and you put it on the individuals, the more we’re separating the risks and putting heavier costs on people when they need care. So, a health savings account gives us some cash, or allows us to put some cash into an account to use when we’re needing care. But it also comes with health insurance plans that are much higher deductibles and much larger out-of-pocket costs. 

And so what we see in practice is that the people who have these accounts, they tend to not … First of all, they tend to be much wealthier people because they’re tax advantages for wealthy people, not for people who are [of] much more modest means. And when they go to get care, there’s usually not that much money in the account to help them pay for these much larger deductibles and out-of-pocket costs. And so they’re paying for a lot more when they need the care. The insurance kicks in at a much higher level of spend. And so the financial burden, even though they’ve paid lower premiums when they need the care, the financial hit is on the individual. 

Rovner: So why shouldn’t we put higher-risk people in a different pool? Since, as you point out, most people are healthy most of the time. That would reduce costs for more people than it would raise costs for. Right? 

Blumberg: Well, it would, at a particular moment in time, but the problem is we don’t stay healthy all of the time. And so, I’m not born with a stamp on my head that says, You’re going to be a low spender, and so you’re going to be better off over here. All I need is a broken leg. All I need is somebody in my family to develop diabetes. God forbid, a kid gets hit by a car, or develops a brain tumor. Stuff happens from out of the blue. And then, if that’s the case, if I’m in a situation that could really make it so that I can’t access, or my loved ones can’t access, the care that they need when they need it. And by the way, as we age, everybody tends to use more and more care. 

So, you can save money at a moment of time by segmenting risk in these ways, but if you do it, you’re putting so many people at risk for not being able to get adequate care when they need it. And because of that skewed distribution of health care spending, it’s a situation where what you save when you’re healthy from segmenting risk is really pretty small compared to the extra amount you have to spend for pooling risk. Because if you take these dollars, and you spread them over everybody, then the increment that you have to spend in order to make sure you’re protected, and everybody else is protected when they need medical care, is not that big. 

Rovner: Is there some ideological reason why Republicans seem to be coalescing around these risk-segmentation ideas? 

Blumberg: I’m not a psychologist, so the motivation escapes me. Because I do think people are better off over the course of their lifetimes when we spread risk broadly. I think part of the issue is the other philosophical difference between conservatives and more progressive policymakers is the idea of income distribution. And the truth of the matter is that really wealthy people, if they get sick and have a high-deductible plan, or they have a much more narrow set of benefits that are being offered to them, they have wealth that can take them a long way to get to buy medical care. They can pay for the broken limb. They can pay for various different medications. 

If they have a very serious illness, or injury that’s longer lasting, they may not â€” even wealthy people â€” may not be able to cover the costs, or it may really have a big impact on them. But by and large, wealthy people are able to insulate themselves to some degree, even with very pared-down coverage. Whereas somebody who’s middle-income, who’s lower-income, who’s not super wealthy, is not going to be able to access that care. So, if your focus is on protecting the assets of those with a lot of wealth, this is a positive in that regard. 

Rovner: So how does this ongoing debate about these enhanced premium subsidies play into this whole thing? 

Blumberg: When we’re talking about the enhanced premium tax credits, which seem to be, by the end of this week, will be going by the wayside, those are actually pooling mechanisms, too. And I think it’s important for people to understand that financial assistance for lower- and middle-income people, one of the great things that it does â€” as a secondary effect of just giving those people insurance coverage â€” is it brings a lot more healthier people into the pool. People who are healthy, young, who wouldn’t have been able to afford health insurance coverage before, and so would have remained uninsured and did before these credits were in place. It brings them into the pool. It lowers the average medical expenses of people insured. And by pooling risk in that way, it actually lowers the premium. Because as the average cost of the individuals enrolled goes down, the premiums go down, too. 

And so one of the things besides these other strategies, which would tend to segment risk further, as we talked about, the strategy that they are denying â€” which is continuing these enhanced subsidies â€” is also going to further segment risk because it’s going to push healthier people out of the pool that can’t afford it anymore. Same with, by the way, the people who are immigrants but are residing here legally, who are no longer going to be able to access assistance to buy coverage in the marketplaces as they have been for the last number of years, they also tend to be people who use less medical care on average. And so those immigrants being in our insurance pools are actually helping to subsidize American citizens who are less healthy. And so by saying, Listen, we’re not going to let you in. We’re not going to give you subsidies to make it affordable for you to come in. We’re actually pushing the average cost of the health insurance coverage upward for no good reason, honestly. 

Rovner: Linda Blumberg, thanks very much. 

Blumberg: My pleasure. Good to see you. 

Rovner: OK, we’re back. It’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s where we each recognize the story we read this week we think you should read, too. Don’t worry if you miss it; we will put the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Anna, you have a story written by you this week. Why don’t you go first? 

Edney: Yeah, thank you. I had a story just published today. It’s in Bloomberg: “.” And I took a deep look at this issue of preterm infant formula. So, for preemies that are born really early, there’s this big debate right now on whether formula is harming them, or whether it’s something else that’s causing one a day, essentially, to die from this awful disease, necrotizing enterocolitis. And so Abbott is struggling because they don’t make a lot of money off of this formula, but they’re being sued for billions and billions of dollars. So they really want Congress, any agency, the White House, whoever, to intervene in some way. 

They’re throwing everything at the wall to see what can stick. And I’ll just say one tidbit that I found that was really interesting. There’s a lot of debate. There was an NIH [National Institutes of Health] report on this disease recently that moved in Abbott’s favor a little bit. I did learn through my reporting that the report was ghostwritten by a company that does a lot of work with Abbott, and lists them as a client. So that’s an interesting conflict of interest there, maybe a hook to get you guys to go read it. Thanks. 

Rovner: Oops. I’m definitely going to go read it. Maya, why don’t you go next? 

Goldman: Yeah, I’m excited to read that, Anna. 

Edney: Thank you. 

Goldman: My extra credit this week is from ProPublica. It’s by Aliyya Swaby and it’s called “” There are a lot of details in the story, but I think the headline tells you the gist of it. But what stuck out to me about this is I think in health journalism and health policy, we often talk about the safety net as if it’s magic and going to catch everyone, or at least I find myself slipping into that mindset sometimes. And I think it’s really important to look into how people on the ground are actually experiencing these services. And it’s also a reminder, unfortunately, that there are bad actors everywhere. 

Rovner: Alas. Sheryl. 

Stolberg: So, my extra credit this week is actually more of a science policy story than a health policy story, but it is a fascinating yarn. It’s titled “.” It’s in The New York Times by my colleague Katie J.M. Baker. And this is the story of two Chinese virologists who were married, and the woman came to believe that covid was a bioweapon created in a lab, and that the Chinese government had purposefully grown this virus and released it to set off the pandemic. And this doctor fell under the sway of people like Steve Bannon, Trump’s ally, and an exiled Chinese billionaire who had reason to want to blame the Chinese government, and who brought her to the United States, placed her in a series of safe houses once she arrived, and arranged for her to meet some of Trump’s top advisers. 

And she has now gone underground, and her husband actually moved to the United States to try to find her. And she’s basically in hiding. She’s cut off contact with her family. And it’s heartbreaking, and poignant, and also, from my perspective, revelatory about just the politics that have come to define our debates around science and health in the wake of the pandemic. 

Rovner: Yeah, it is quite the story. All right. My extra credit this week is from The Washington Post. It’s called  by David Ovalle. And we’ve talked about this issue before. These fees were mainly aimed at tech companies, who are the biggest users of the H1B visa program, but this new $100,000 fee is already preventing particularly rural practitioners from bringing medical professionals to places in the United States that Americans just don’t want to practice. This story centers on an overworked kidney disease practice in North Carolina that’s still waiting on a U.S.-trained doctor that it hired months ago, who is stuck in India. We’ve already talked about how the Medicaid cuts are going to hit rural areas particularly hard. This fee to bring in international medical professionals sounds like it’s making that even worse.  

OK, that is this week’s show. Thanks to our editor, Emmarie Huetteman, and our producer-engineer, Taylor Cook. A reminder: What the Health? is now available on WAMU platforms, the NPR app, and wherever you get your podcast, as well as, of course, kffhealthnews.org. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org, or you can find me still on X  or on Bluesky . Where are you folks hanging these days, Maya? 

Goldman: I am on X  and on LinkedIn under my name. 

Rovner: Anna? 

Edney:  or  @AnnaEdney,and LinkedIn as well. 

Rovner: Sheryl. 

Stolberg: And I’m on  and  @sherylnyt, and LinkedIn under my own name. 

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy. 

Credits

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The Government Is Open /podcast/what-the-health-422-government-shutdown-aca-tax-credits-november-13-2025/ Thu, 13 Nov 2025 18:45:44 +0000 /?p=2117249&post_type=podcast&preview_id=2117249 The Host
Emmarie Huetteman photo
Emmarie Huetteman ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Emmarie Huetteman,Ìýsenior editor, oversees a team of Washington reporters, as well as “Bill of the Month”Ìýand “What the Health? From ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News.” She previously spent more than a decade reporting on the federal government, most recently covering surprise medical bills, drug pricing reform, and other health policy debates in Washington and on the campaign trail.Ìý

The longest federal government shutdown in history is over, after a handful of House and Senate Democrats joined most Republicans in approving legislation that funds the government through January. Despite Democrats’ demands, the package did not include an extension of the expanded tax credits that help most Affordable Care Act enrollees afford their plans — meaning most people with ACA plans are slated to pay much more toward their premiums next year.

Also, new details are emerging about the Trump administration’s efforts to use the Medicaid program — for low-income and disabled people — to advance its immigration and trans health policy goals. And President Donald Trump has unveiled deals with two major pharmaceutical companies designed to increase access to weight loss drugs for some Americans.

This week’s panelists are Emmarie Huetteman of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Anna Edney of Bloomberg News, Shefali Luthra of The 19th, and Sandhya Raman of CQ Roll Call.

Panelists

Anna Edney photo
Anna Edney Bloomberg News
Shefali Luthra photo
Shefali Luthra The 19th
Sandhya Raman photo
Sandhya Raman CQ Roll Call

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • Though the shutdown deal did not include an extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies, it came with a plan for a Senate vote by next month — on what exactly, it is unclear. Senate Republicans appear to be coalescing around providing money via health savings accounts rather than through the subsidies, while House Republicans seem more fragmented. The clock is ticking; the existing credits expire on Jan. 1, and open enrollment has begun.
  • Even as the Trump administration is likely to be tied up in court over its efforts to use Medicaid to crack down on health care for immigrants and trans people, they’ve had a real chilling effect. Immigrants, for instance, are skipping medical care, and hospitals are cutting back on offering gender-affirming care for trans people for fear of losing federal funding.
  • Trump’s newly announced GLP-1 price deals could help Medicare enrollees afford the weight loss drugs, potentially opening up access to a new population of patients — and customers. And a steady stream of policy reversals, unexplained dismissals, and negative news coverage is leading to worries that the FDA’s credibility is being undermined by internal drama. Also in question is whether it’s interfering with the agency’s work. Drug companies would likely say yes, and some within the FDA are trying to combat these concerns.
  • A major anti-abortion group is leaning into the current electoral moment, targeting key states and preparing for sizable political contributions ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Abortion opponents see an opportunity to capitalize on voters’ changing motivations and reposition themselves to fit into the post-Trump Republican Party.

Also this week, ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Julie Rovner interviews ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Julie Appleby, who wrote the latest “Bill of the Month” feature, about a doctor who became the patient after a car accident sent her to the hospital — and $64,000 into debt. Do you have an outrageous medical bill? Tell us about it!

Plus, for “extra credit,” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too:

Emmarie Huetteman: ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ “Immigrants With Health Conditions May Be Denied Visas Under New Trump Administration Guidance,” by Amanda Seitz.

Anna Edney: Bloomberg News’ “,” by Tim Loh, Hayley Warren, and Julia Janicki.

Shefali Luthra: The 19th’s “,” by Orion Rummler.

Sandhya Raman: BBC’s “,” by Nadine Yousif.

Also mentioned in this week’s episode:

Click to open the transcript Transcript: The Government Is Open

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.]  

Emmarie Huetteman: Hello and welcome to “What the Health?” from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and WAMU. I’m Emmarie Huetteman, a senior editor for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, filling in for host Julie Rovner this week. I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Nov. 13, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might’ve changed by the time you hear this. So, here we go. 

Today, we’re joined via video conference by Sandhya Raman of CQ Roll Call. 

Sandhya Raman: Good morning. 

Huetteman: Anna Edney of Bloomberg News. 

Anna Edney: Hi, everyone. 

Huetteman: And Shefali Luthra of The 19th. 

Shefali Luthra: Hello. 

Huetteman: Later in this episode, we’ll have Julie’s interview with ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Julie Appleby, who wrote our latest “Bill of the Month” story about a doctor who became the patient after a car accident sent her to the hospital and $64,000 into debt. But first, this week’s news. 

The longest federal government shutdown in history is over. Late Wednesday, six House Democrats joined most Republicans in approving legislation that funds the government through January. That vote came after a handful of Senate Democrats broke ranks with their party last weekend and brokered a deal to end the shutdown. Although the Trump administration was still fighting earlier this week not to fully fund food stamps, the White House has said those benefits would be fully restored within hours of the shutdown’s end. That said, food banks and other safety-net programs have warned the shutdown’s consequences could linger, especially for those who were forced to redirect rent money, dip into savings, and make other sacrifices to feed their families. Notably, despite Democrats’ demands, the deal does not include an extension of the expanded tax credits that help people afford Affordable Care Act plans. That means those enhanced subsidies are still slated to expire at the end of the year. Sandhya, you were on Capitol Hill last night. What was included in the deal? And now that the shutdown’s over, can we expect a vote on extending the tax credits? 

Raman: So part of that deal was that sometime in the middle of next month, the Senate is going to be able to vote on a health bill of Democrats’ choosing to extend the Affordable Care Act enhanced subsidies that are set to expire at the end of the year. There’s been a decent amount of talk already in both chambers about what a health care bill could look like, because it would need to be bipartisan to pass. There’s some multiple camps right now. 

I think in the Senate, Republicans are coalescing around putting money into flexible savings accounts instead of doing an extension of the credits as something that they would want to do instead. There are other Republicans that are still open to extending the credits with some reforms attached. The House, we figured out last night, was a little bit more fragmented. They’re less united in the way the House is around doing something with the flexible spending accounts. So a lot of them are still anti-extending the credits at all. They are working on a health package, but it remains to be seen what they want to do with that, given the short amount of time they have. But I think a lot of them are also looking for the same reforms that the Senate is on the Republican side, if they do sign on to extend them. 

Huetteman: Yeah, short is right. We’re already looking at that Dec. 31 deadline to extend the existing credits. And of course, we’re already in the open enrollment period at this point. People are already getting their plans for next year. Polls show that most Americans blamed Republicans for the shutdown. A tracking poll from my KFF colleagues out last week showed most Americans want Congress to extend the tax credits. Republicans are aware of this heading into the midterms next year, no? 

Raman: I think that’s definitely been a big factor when talking to folks, especially ones that I think have been more interested in extending the credits are set up for our competitive races next year. There has been talk at different times of doing a one-year extension. But that puts us pretty close to the midterms, which might not be in everyone’s best interest depending on how things shake out. So, I think it’s definitely in a lot of folks’ minds, just because it is a lot more popular than it has been in previous years. But there are a lot of the more conservative folks that just have been anti-ACA for so long, that they don’t want to extend something that was … The enhanced subsidies were started by Democrats during covid. They think it’s a covid-era thing that needs to be phased out. 

Huetteman: Yeah, and also notably, you might’ve noticed I said that they only funded the government through January. Does that mean we’re getting ready to do this again in a couple of months? 

Raman: There’s a chance. So part of the deal got done this week is that they did three of the 12 spending bills that they do every year to fund the government. But they usually do them in order of which ones are easiest to get done. So we still have to come to agreements on some of the bigger ones, including Labor, HHS [Health and Human Services]. Education is what funds most of the health activities, and that’s usually a tougher one. So, I think it depends on a few things. Are folks sticking to their word? Do they get that health care vote that they were promised? Do other things shake out that make people at odds with each other over the next bit? But we could possibly be in the same situation if we don’t make inroads on funding the government for a yearlong situation before then. 

Huetteman: Oh goodness. Well, it sounds like we’ll be back again having this conversation soon. Meanwhile, months after the president [Donald Trump] signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill with big changes to Medicaid, new details are emerging about how the Trump administration is using the Medicaid program to promote its policy goals. My ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News colleague Phil Galewitz recently reported on how the Trump administration has ordered state Medicaid agencies to investigate the immigration status of certain enrollees â€” providing states with lists of names to re-verify â€” and effectively roping the health program into the president’s immigration crackdown. 

Also, NPR reports the Trump administration plans to dramatically restrict access to medical care for transgender youth. New proposals that could be released as soon as this month would block federal money from being spent on trans care. Policy experts say that would make it difficult, if not impossible, to access that care, in large part because government funding is a huge source of revenue, and losing it could force hospitals to end the programs entirely. Both of these programs are pretty striking: enlisting Medicaid to perform spot checks of immigration status, and also potentially blocking funding for trans care. Have we seen other presidential administrations use Medicaid like this? And since we’re talking about funding, is there a role for Congress here? 

Luthra: My understanding is that this approach, specifically with gender-affirming care and with immigration, doesn’t really have a precedent. And what I think is really important about these is these are decisions that will be litigated, challenged, argued in court. But, even if and as that happens, there’s a real chilling effect that I think is really important. Already, we know that a lot of immigrants are very afraid to sign up even for benefits they are entitled to, because they’re worried it could count against them. We already know that a lot of immigrants with health needs are skipping their health care because they are so worried about what happens if ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] shows up at a hospital. This only threatens to add to that. On the vantage of gender-affirming care, already we have seen some major hospitals and health providers drop the offering, even in anticipation of this policy coming into effect. So I think what’s really important is to understand that no matter what happens, already, people’s health is really being affected, and people are suffering as a result. 

Raman: I think we’ve seen little sprinkles of some of these things that have happened in the past, but this is elevated at such a level that it’s different. Even in the first Trump administration, there were some things put in place with the public charge to crack down on what benefits immigrants could be entitled to. But I think, as with a lot of the things that we’re seeing, it’s really been amped up. I think one thing that Shefali was saying that made me think of was, we’ve already seen a lot of this chilling effect with a lot of things in abortion and reproductive care, where even if laws or regulations don’t go into effect, they’re being talked about or litigated. It already has that effect of people not wanting to show up or not knowing what’s available to them. So we have a little bit of that to look at as well. 

Huetteman: Yeah, absolutely. All right, well, we’re going to take a quick break. We’ll be right back with more health news. 

We’re back. In an Oval Office announcement last week, President Trump unveiled agreements with the pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to offer some Americans lower prices on their weight loss drugs. Under the deals, the Trump administration says, most eligible patients on Medicare and Medicaid, or those who use the planned TrumpRx website, would pay a few hundred dollars a month for some of the most popular GLP-1 drugs. That’s compared to current price tags, which can be $1,000 or more. Anna, these are only some of the most recent deals between the Trump administration and drugmakers. What does this mean for Americans who take these weight loss drugs, and what do the companies get in exchange? 

Edney: Yeah, I think for Americans who take these or are hoping to take these, I think, is probably where it really opens up. Because … Medicare was not covering these. Now that they’ve come to the table and made a deal, it might open it up to some Medicare beneficiaries. I don’t think you’re going to see everyone on Medicare who wants it be able to get it. I think it’ll be a little stricter on what BMI [body mass index] and comorbidities and things that they need to meet, but it will open access to some Americans. Medicaid, I think, it might not be as beneficial for people’s pocketbooks because they’re already paying extremely low out-of-pocket prices, and Medicaid already negotiates very low prices. That might not be the big change that it was hyped up to be. 

But on the Medicare side, certainly, the companies benefit from that, too, because that opens a new patient population to them. And through TrumpRx â€” that’s the other place where they made this deal for lowered prices on the GLP-1s â€” a lot of people have employer coverage that they might be trying to already get these drugs through, and then they’re not paying a whole lot out-of-pocket. But there are employer coverage plans that aren’t covering GLP-1s because they’re just so expensive. So it could be a place where some people might go to try to comparison shop and get their GLP-1s that they didn’t have access to before. 

Huetteman: I also noticed, in looking at the Trump administration’s fact sheet on this, that they were heralding that the companies had agreed to some extra American manufacturing. Let’s say concessions. Am I correct about that? Is this connected to tariffs by any chance? 

Edney: Yeah, I think that that’s been going on in conjunction with some of these deals. As you usually hear the companies say, And we’re opening a new factory in Virginia or somewhereAnd certainly they’re trying to avoid the tariffs. As with a lot of these things, some of it, in some cases, they have been factories that the companies were already planning to open, and then they just pumped up for this purpose. I think for so many of this â€” and even for the prices, the lower prices that these companies are negotiating â€” we just haven’t seen the details that will matter on what the company’s got, and what the American people actually benefit from for all of this, and what these factories will mean or will be making. These are things that might not come online for several years. So you can say you’re building something, but will we see it once Trump is out of office? 

Huetteman: Exactly. And a lot of the framing has been: We’re helping Americans by bringing this work back to America, so that Americans can do the work, so that Americans can benefit from the drug prices. But it seems like there’s at best a lag on that sort of benefit. Right? 

Edney: Definitely. Definitely a lag on being able to bring some of that stuff online. I think with a lot of the Trump administration’s health policies â€” and I use that word loosely â€” it is that it is a lot of negotiation and handshakes. And so we don’t really know how solid those efforts will be in the years to come. 

Huetteman: Well, we can definitely keep an eye on that. In other news: Drama, drama, drama at the Food and Drug Administration. With a steady stream of controversial policy reversals, unexplained dismissals, and just plain unflattering stories, concerns are growing that mismanagement at the FDA is undermining the usually cautious agency’s credibility. In some of the latest developments, Stat reported the FDA’s top drug regulator resigned after being accused of using his position to punish a former associate. Stat also reported that dozens of scientists are considering leaving the already diminished FDA office that regulates vaccines, biologics, and the blood supply to get away from a toxic work environment. What are the ramifications of problems at the FDA? Is the internal drama interfering with business there? 

Edney: I think the pharmaceutical industry would say yes, definitely. They’re feeling like their applications for new drugs aren’t getting reviewed in time. They’re worried that they’re not going to be reviewed in time. And this starts with the administration letting go hundreds of workers in those offices, but also, is now … There’s just been such chaos at the top. You had Vinay Prasad, who is the head of vaccines and biologic drugs there, who has been let go and then brought back. And then now we have the head of the drug center, George Tidmarsh, who resigned under investigation for basically using his position to fulfill a vendetta against an old colleague who pushed him out of some companies. And so I think, certainly, there’s a lot of potential for disruption, as people are trying to avoid retaliation, avoid getting in the crosshairs of all of this. 

And recently, the FDA has now put Rick Pazdur, who was the head of their cancer center, in charge of the drug center to try to show some stability to encourage the pharmaceutical industry. Because he is someone who’s really pushed for innovation, pushed for trying to get drugs to the market faster. And he’s been at the FDA for, I think, 26 years. So, they’re trying to show some stability with that. But we’ll have to see how that goes because he’s also been highly criticized in the past by Prasad, and they’ll be working closely together at the head of those two centers. 

Huetteman: Well, finally, in reproductive health news, a federal judge ruled late last month that the FDA violated federal law by restricting access to mifepristone. While the government’s restrictions remain in place for the politically controversial medication, which is used to manage miscarriages as well as abortions, the judge did order the FDA to consider the relevant evidence in order to “provide a reasoned explanation for its restrictions.” And a major anti-abortion group, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, announced plans for it and its super PAC [political action committee] to spend about $80 million in at least four states to support anti-abortion candidates in the midterm elections next year. Shefali, what does this say about how abortion opponents see this moment? What are they looking to gain in the midterms and beyond? 

Luthra: It’s so interesting to me to see how much anti-abortion groups are really â€” and, in particular, SBA â€” leaning into this moment. And they really see this as a reversal of last year’s election, where Trump certainly won. But we do know from polling that voters largely opposed abortion restrictions, supported abortion rights. I think some really useful context is to consider that the president, despite being backed by abortion opponents, has not really been the champion many of them would’ve hoped for. He hasn’t actually done very much on abortion, has not taken the very meaningful steps that you might’ve expected in a post-Dobbs landscape [Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization] to remarkably restrict it, beyond the normal things any Republican president does. And so I think what we’re seeing here is an effort to reposition the anti-abortion movement beyond this presidential administration. Thinking ahead to what does it look like if there is a post-Trump GOP? 

How do you build out a movement that is a more staunch ally to the anti-abortion movement going forward? One other thing that I think is really noteworthy is: A lot of abortion opponents are looking at polling that says that voters who support abortion rights aren’t prioritizing it in the same way they might have a year ago. And they’re really hoping that things can revert to how they used to be. Or the voters who were these single-issue abortion voters were on their side, were supportive of restrictions, and then might be mobilized by these kinds of really seismic investments in elections. 

Huetteman: Yeah, absolutely. I’m thinking about now how there was such a reaction about a month ago â€” check me on the timing â€” when a generic version of the abortion pill was put out. What was the reaction like then, and what does that say about how they feel the Trump administration is reacting to their needs? 

Luthra: A lot of abortion opponents were really livid about this, and approving this generic was pretty standard. It was not that complicated of a process. This drug has been available for so long in other forms. But it underscored that a lot of people who oppose abortion feel like they’re really just waiting. The HHS and the FDA have promised this review of mifepristone that they say could ultimately lead to restrictions. But all it has really been has been a promise this review is ongoing, is coming. There will eventually be results, but there haven’t been any. So to be waiting for some kind of policy that people keep telling you is coming, and then at the same time, to see actually the FDA moving to make abortion medication more available â€” not less â€” is really frustrating for a lot of people who hope that this administration would be an ally to them. 

Huetteman: Absolutely. OK. That’s it for this week’s news. Now, we’ll have Julie’s interview with ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ Julie Appleby. And then we’ll do our extra credits. 

Julie Rovner: I am pleased to welcome back to the podcast, ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ other Julie, Julie Appleby, who reported and wrote the latest ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News “Bill of the Month.” Julie, welcome back. 

Julie Appleby: Thanks for having me. 

Rovner: So this month’s patient is actually a doctor, so she knows how the system works. But, as so often happens, she was in a car accident and ended up in an out-of-network hospital. Tell us who she is and what kind of care she needed. 

Appleby: OK. Her name is Lauren Hughes, and she was heading to see patients at a clinic about 20 miles from where she lives in Denver back in February when another driver T-boned her car, totaling it. She was taken by ambulance to the closest hospital, which turned out to be Platte Valley Hospital, where she was diagnosed with bruising, a deep cut on her knee, and a broken ankle. Physicians there recommended immediate surgical repair because they wanted to wash out that wound on her knee. And also, she needed some screws in her ankle to hold it in place. 

Rovner: So then after the surgery and an overnight stay, she goes home, and then the bills start to come. How much did it end up costing? 

Appleby: Well, she was billed $63,976 by the hospital. 

Rovner: And the insurance company denied her claim. What was their argument? 

Appleby: Yeah, this is where it gets complicated, as many of these things often do. Her insurer, Anthem, fully covered the nearly $2,400 ambulance ride and some smaller radiology charges from the ER. But it denied the surgery and the overnight stay charges from the hospital, which did happen to be out-of-network. Four days after her surgery, Anthem notified Hughes in a letter that after consulting clinical guidelines for her type of ankle repair, its reviewer determined that it wasn’t medically necessary for her to be fully admitted for an inpatient hospital stay. So, the note said that if she’d needed additional surgery or had other problems such as vomiting or fever, an inpatient stay might’ve been warranted. But they didn’t have that in this case. And generally, people don’t stay overnight in the hospital after broken ankle surgery. 

Rovner: Of course, she had no car and she â€¦ 

Appleby: Right? Her car was totaled. She had no way to get home. She had nobody to pick her up. And it turns out, there’s a couple more little quirks. So the surgery charges were denied because this quirk that under Anthem’s agreement with the hospital, all claims for services before and after a patient are approved or denied together. So, since the hospital stay was generally not required after the ankle surgery, the surgery charges itself were denied as well. Even though Anthem said they always felt that that was medically necessary â€” that she needed the ankle surgery â€” it all came down to this overnight hospital stay. 

Rovner: So, isn’t this exactly what the federal surprise billing law was supposed to eliminate â€” being in an accident, getting taken to an out-of-network hospital for emergency care? How did it not apply here? 

Appleby: Right. Well, that’s where it’s so interesting because initially, that’s what everybody thought: The No Surprises Act would cover it. And the No Surprises Act from 2022, it’s aimed at preventing these so-called surprise bills, which come when you go to an out-of-network hospital or provider. And in those cases, it limits your financial liability for emergency care to the exact same cost sharing as if you had been in an in-network hospital. 

So in this case, it applies to emergency care, and we saw that it did actually cover some of her emergency room charges, and that kind of thing. But generally though, emergency care is defined as treatment needed to stabilize a patient. So once she was stabilized before the surgery, she enters this post-stabilization situation. And if your provider determines that you can travel using nonmedical transport to an in-network facility, you might lose those No Surprises Act protections. Generally, you’re asked to sign some paperwork saying you want to stay at the out-of-network facility, and you want to continue treatment, and you waive your rights in that case. Hughes does not remember getting anything like that. And this case didn’t come down to the No Surprises Act. It was a question of medical necessity. Your insurer has broad power to determine medical necessity. And if they review a situation and determine that it’s not medically necessary, and you’re post-stabilization, that trumps any No Surprises Act protections. 

Rovner: So what eventually happened with this bill? 

Appleby: So what eventually happened was that the hospital resubmitted the charges as outpatient services. And that seemed to be the crux of the matter here. It was that inpatient overnight hospital stay. If she was kept [on] an observation status â€” which is a lower level of care, hospitals get paid a little bit less â€” that would’ve seemed to solve the problem. And that’s what happened here. Platte Valley resubmitted the bill, and her insurer paid about $21,000 of that bill. There was another $40,000 that was knocked off by an Anthem discount. And in the end, Hughes only owed a $250 copayment. 

Rovner: Wow. 

Appleby: Yeah. 

Rovner: Of course, you left out the part where we actually called and made it â€¦ 

Appleby: Well, there was that, too. And she was very savvy, as you mentioned. She also got her HR department at her employer involved. She wrote letters. She was not going to give up on this. That’s one of the advice that she gave is not to wait â€” not to delay too long if you get a notice of not medical necessity â€” but to quickly and aggressively question insurance denials once they’re received. Make sure you understand what’s going on. Try to get it escalated to the insurers and the hospital’s leadership. All of those things. And I think another takeaway for folks is â€” and this is harder because, look, you’re in the emergency room, you don’t know what’s going on â€” but it might be worth asking, Hey, am I post-stabilization? Am I being admitted as an inpatient? Am I being held for an observation stay? Is there some kind of difference with that in terms of my insurance coverage? And you could perhaps try to put this to the hospital billing department. But it’s even better if there’s a way you can call your insurer. But that’s not always realistic in these kinds of emergency situations. 

Rovner: Yeah, and just out of curiosity, if somebody totals my car and I end up [in] an ambulance needing surgery, I’m going to assume that the other driver’s insurance is going to pay my medical bills. Why didn’t that happen? 

Appleby: Well, in this case, the way it was explained to me is the other driver had the minimum coverage needed in the state of Colorado. And so it did pay nearly $5,000 toward some of these charges. But that’s about all it paid. 

Rovner: Wow. Well, now, obviously, as you said, Lauren Hughes is a doctor. Savvy about the way the system works, or doesn’t in this case. Even then, it took her months and called us to work this all out. How should somebody with less expertise handle a situation like this? Is there somebody they can turn to help, assuming that they’re not cognizant enough to start asking questions about their admission status while they’re still in the emergency room waiting for surgery? 

Appleby: Right. Again, that is so complicated. If you can, call your insurer and see what they have to say. And again, it may be after hours. It may be not possible. Perhaps see if you can chat with the hospital billing department. But again, some of this is going to be after the fact. And remember, the billing in this situation came down to how the hospital coded the billing. They coded it as an inpatient hospital stay, and that’s after the fact. And there’s not a lot you can do about it. But in the end, it was resubmitted as an outpatient service, and that made all the difference in this case. 

Rovner: Wow. Another complicated one. Or I guess you can just write to us. Julie Appleby, thank you very much. 

Appleby: Thanks for having me. 

Huetteman: All right, now it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s where we each recognize a story we read this week that we think you should read, too. Don’t worry if you miss it. We’ll put the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Anna, how about you go first this week? 

Edney: Sure. This story is from a few of my colleagues at Bloomberg. “.” And I thought this was an interesting story, not just because there is the possibility that the world’s most-used weed killer could be going away because it’s just folding under so many legal challenges related to cancer. But it’s also just a deep dive to look at this herbicide that has affected all of our lives and how it came to be, what’s going on with it now, why it’s not working. And also at this company, Bayer, that in the middle of these legal challenges, bought the company that owned Roundup. So I just think it’s an interesting look at the whole situation and something that we’ve probably all consumed before in certain ways, through just fruits and vegetables and different seeds and things. 

Huetteman: Definitely. Shefali, how about your story? 

Luthra: Sure. So I picked a four-part series by my colleague at The 19th, Orion Rummler. The headline for the piece I picked is “” I think this is a really smart package of stories because, as Orion notes, people who have “detransitioned” â€” transitioned and then transitioned back â€” are a really central part of the modern conservative movement’s efforts to target trans health and, in particular, trans health for young people. Saying, look at these people who transitioned and then came back and regretted it. But there hasn’t been a lot of journalism actually looking at people who navigate this experience beyond those who are these political tokens. So Orion does exactly that. He talked to people who have had the experience of transitioning and then detransitioning in some way. 

He notes that this is a pretty rare experience to have this journey with one’s gender, but that the people he interviewed, he profiled, said that they felt really frustrated with how the conversation has unfolded. In fact, their transitioning was an important part of their journey to discover their gender, and that they are deeply concerned that restrictions on trans health could be harmful to them and their loved ones as well. I think this is really valuable journalism, and I’m so excited that Orion did it, and I hope everyone reads it. 

Huetteman: That’s really interesting. Thank you for sharing that one. Sandhya, what do you have this week? 

Raman: So I pick, “,” and it’s by Nadine Yousif for the BBC. So this week, the Pan-American Health Organization, Canada is no longer measles-free. And so that means that the Americas region as a whole has lost its elimination status. I thought this was important because in the U.S., we’re at a 33-year high with measles. And Mexico has also seen a surge in cases. And just an interesting way to look at what’s happening a little broader than just the U.S. lens, as all these places are seeing fewer people vaccinated against measles. 

Huetteman: Thanks for sharing that story, Sandhya. My extra credit this week is a great scoop from my ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News colleague Amanda Seitz. The headline is, “Immigrants With Health Conditions May Be Denied Visas Under New Trump Administration Guidance.” Amanda got her hands on a State Department cable that expands the list of reasons that would make visa applicants ineligible to enter the country, including now age or the likelihood they might rely on government benefits. And it gives visa officers quite a bit of power to make those calls.  

Now immigrants, they’re already screened for communicable diseases and mental health problems. But the new guidance goes further and emphasizes that chronic diseases should be considered. And it calls on those visa officers to assess whether applicants can pay for their own medical care, noting that certain medical conditions can “require hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of care.” 

All right, that’s this week’s show. Thanks this week to our editor, Stephanie Stapleton, and our producer-engineers, Taylor Cook and Francis Ying. “What the Health?” is available on WAMU platforms, the NPR app, and wherever you get your podcasts. And, as always, on kffhealthnews.org. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org. Or you can find me on . Where are you folks these days? Sandhya? 

Raman: I’m on  and on  @SandhyaWrites. 

Huetteman: Shefali? 

Luthra: I’m on Bluesky . 

Huetteman: And Anna? 

Edney:  or  @AnnaEdney. 

Huetteman: We’ll be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy. 

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Happy Open Enrollment Eve! /podcast/what-the-health-420-open-enrollment-obamacare-aca-shutdown-october-30-2025/ Thu, 30 Oct 2025 19:00:00 +0000 The Host
Julie Rovner photo
Julie Rovner ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Read Julie's stories. Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ weekly health policy news podcast, "What the Health?" A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book "Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z," now in its third edition.

Open enrollment for 2026 Affordable Care Act insurance plans starts in most states Nov. 1, with no resolution in Congress about whether to continue more generous premium tax credits expanded under President Joe Biden or let them expire at the end of this year. It is unclear whether the backlash from millions of enrollees seeing skyrocketing premiums will move Democrats or Republicans to back away from entrenched positions that are keeping most of the federal government shut down.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration — having done away earlier this year with a Biden-era regulation that prevented medical debt from being included on consumers’ credit reports — is now telling states they cannot pass their own laws to bar the practice.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Paige Winfield Cunningham of The Washington Post, Maya Goldman of Axios, and Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico.

Panelists

Paige Winfield Cunningham photo
Paige Winfield Cunningham The Washington Post Read Paige's stories.
Maya Goldman photo
Maya Goldman Axios
Alice Miranda Ollstein photo
Alice Miranda Ollstein Politico

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • Tens of millions of Americans are bracing to lose government food aid on Nov. 1, after the Trump administration opted not to continue funding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program during the shutdown. President Donald Trump and senior officials have made no secret of efforts to penalize government programs they see as Democratic priorities, to exert political pressure as the stalemate continues on Capitol Hill.
  • People beginning to shop for next year’s plans on the ACA marketplaces are experiencing sticker shock due to the expiration of more generous premium tax credits that were expanded during the covid pandemic. The federal government will also take a particular hit as it covers growing costs for lower-income customers who will continue to receive assistance regardless of a deal in Congress.
  • In state news, after killing a Biden-era rule to block medical debt from credit reports, the Trump administration is working to prevent states from passing their own protections. In Florida, doctors who support vaccine efforts are being muffled, and the state’s surgeon general says he did not model the outcomes of ending childhood vaccination mandates before pursuing the policy — a risky proposition as public health experts caution that recent measles outbreaks are a canary in the coal mine for vaccine-preventable illnesses.
  • And in Texas, the state’s attorney general, who is also running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican, is suing the maker of Tylenol, claiming the company tried to dodge liability for the medication’s unproven ties to autism. The lawsuit is the latest problem for Tylenol, with recent allegations undermining confidence in the common painkiller, the only one recommended for pregnant women to reduce potentially dangerous fevers and relieve pain.

Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too: 

Julie Rovner: ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ “Many Fear Federal Loan Caps Will Deter Aspiring Doctors and Worsen MD Shortage,” by Bernard J. Wolfson.

Alice Miranda Ollstein: ProPublica’s “,” by Eric Umansky.

Paige Winfield Cunningham: The Washington Post’s “,” by Mark Johnson.

Maya Goldman: ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ “As Sports Betting Explodes, States Try To Set Limits To Stop Gambling Addiction,” by Karen Brown, New England Public Media.

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

Click to open the transcript Transcript: Happy Open Enrollment Eve!

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.] 

Julie Rovner: Hello, from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and, starting this week, from WAMU public radio in Washington, D.C., and welcome to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Oct. 30, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast, and things might’ve changed by the time you hear this. So here we go. Today, we are joined via video conference by Alice Miranda Ollstein of Politico. 

Alice Miranda Ollstein: Hello. 

Rovner: Maya Goldman of Axios News. 

Maya Goldman: Good to be here. 

Rovner: And we welcome back to the podcast one of our original panelists, Paige Winfield Cunningham of The Washington Post. So great to see you again. 

Winfield Cunningham: Hi, Julie. It’s great to be back. 

Rovner: Before we dive in, we have a little of our own news to announce. Starting this week, we’re partnering with WAMU, Washington D.C.’s public radio station, to distribute the podcast. That means you can also now find us on the NPR app. And welcome to all you new listeners. OK, onto the news. We are now 30 days into the federal government shutdown, and there is still no discernible end in sight. And this Saturday is not only the start of open enrollment in most states for the Affordable Care Act health plans, which we’ll talk more about in a minute. It’s also the day an estimated 42 million Americans will lose access to food stamps after the Trump administration decided to stop funding the SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance] program. That’s something the administration did keep funding during the last Trump shutdown in 2019, and, according to budget experts, could continue to do now. So what’s behind this? As I think I pointed out last week, not such a great look to deprive people of food aid right before Thanksgiving. 

Ollstein: So I think this follows the pattern we’ve seen throughout the shutdown, which is just a lot of picking and choosing of what gets funded and what doesn’t. The angle of this I’ve covered is that out of all of the uniformed forces of the government, the Trump administration dug around and found money to keep paying the armed members, but not the public health officers, who are also part of the uniformed branches of the country. And yeah, you’re seeing this in the SNAP space as well. President Trump and his officials have openly threatened to go after what they see as Democrat programs. So it’s just interesting what they consider in that category. But you’re seeing a lot of choices being made to exert maximum political pressure and force various sides of this fight to cave, but we’re not seeing that yet either. 

Rovner: Yeah, they are. I mean, it seems this is also backwards because it’s usually the Republicans who are shutting down the government, the Democrats who are trying to pressure them to reopen it. And now, of course, we’re seeing the opposite because the Democrats want the Republicans to do something about the Affordable Care Act subsidies, and the Republicans are going after previously what had been kind of sacrosanct bipartisan programs like food stamps and the WIC [the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children] program, for pregnant and breastfeeding moms and babies. And now, apparently, they’re going to stop funding for Head Start, the preschool program for low-income families with kids. On the one hand, you’re right, they are programs that are very cherished by Democrats, but I feel like this whole shutdown is now sort of going after the most vulnerable people in America. 

Goldman: It’s also been interesting because [Health and Human Services] Secretary [Robert F.] Kennedy [Jr.] has tried to use SNAP as a vehicle for his Make America Healthy Again agenda, right? Trying to get states to limit the sugary drinks that their SNAP programs offer. And he’s, like, really touted that as part of the agenda. And now there does not seem to be any interest from HHS in speaking out about that. 

Rovner: Well, of course, and SNAP isn’t an HHS program. 

Goldman: Exactly. Exactly. 

Rovner: It’s a program in the Department of Agriculture, which is even more confusing, but you’re absolutely right. I mean, it’s odd that some of the things that he’s been pointing to are things that this administration is kind of trying to lay at the Democrats’ feet, as in, You want this program, reopen the government. So as I mentioned, Saturday is the start of Obamacare open enrollment in most of the states. And, Paige, you got a for plans in the 30 states that use the federal marketplace, which is now open for what we call window-shopping before open enrollment officially begins. What did you find? 

Winfield Cunningham: Yeah. So I got some documents at the end of last week showing that the average premium for the second-lowest-cost silver plan — which, of course, is what, we know … that’s what the subsidies are pegged to — is going up 30%, which is the second-highest premium increase. The highest we saw was 2017 to 2018. But this is a really, really significant increase. And of course, CMS [the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services] didn’t include that number in the document that it finally released this week. So the documents I saw had some sort of numbers like that, which were all stripped out of the official documents. But all of this is just so interesting because I was thinking about, back to 2017-2018, and the politics of this are so flipped right now because basically it was the Democrats then who didn’t want to talk about premium increases and the Republicans who were yelling about it. 

So it’s funny how that has changed. But I guess on the politics of this, it seemed for a while like Democrats were thinking maybe the Nov. 1 start of open enrollment would provide this out for them to pass the spending bill because they could say, like, OK, we tried. Now open enrollment has started, or the premiums are kind of baked, so we can’t really do anything to change it now. But I don’t think we’re going to have anything this week. It seems like both sides are pretty dug in still. I mean, I guess the other thing I would say on these costs, it’s really highlighting a weakness that we’ve known for a long time in the Affordable Care Act, which is that, like, yes, it made health insurance affordable for a lot of people, but there’s always been this smaller number of people that are above 400% federal poverty that have had no shield from insurance costs. They have the last four years, and now they’re not going to have one anymore. And it’s funny because Democrats are talking about this, but that’s sort of a problem they hadn’t wanted to acknowledge for a long time in the early years of the Affordable Care Act. And as you guys all know, there’s not going to be any political will for bipartisan work to create affordable options for these folks unless the subsidies get extended, which, of course, that doesn’t seem very likely at the moment from how things stand. 

Rovner: Yeah. Going back to what the Republicans sort of announced, their talking points, is that, well, first the premium increases aren’t that big and that the expiring extra subsidies aren’t that big a piece of it, both of which are actually kind of true. But, of course, that’s not where the sticker shock is coming from. The sticker shock is coming from the expiration of those tax credits that’s going to …  

So people who had been shielded from these very high premiums are no longer going to be shielded from them. And that’s why, if you look at social media, you see all these screenshots now of insurance that costs $3,000 a month for people who were paying $150 a month, which is obviously not affordable. Why is it so difficult to explain the difference? I’ve been working on different ways to explain it for the last three weeks. 

Goldman: I was trying to figure this out last night, when I was writing something for my newsletter today. And I think one of the really confusing parts about this is that, like Paige said, like Paige scooped, premiums are going up a certain amount, and that’s not actually what people are seeing. That’s not what almost anyone is going to actually face. Either you’re getting that huge sticker shock because you’re losing your subsidies that you had this year or you’re continuing to have subsidies, they’re not quite the same, but you’re still not going to pay a 30% increase. And so I think that that’s really confusing for me even, and hard to explain. 

Winfield Cunningham: I think one way to think about this is like the party that is going to bear the brunt of the premium costs to a large degree is the government because for people that are before 400% federal poverty, they are basically guaranteed under the Affordable Care Act that they’re not going to have to pay more for premiums over a certain percentage of their income. And so this just means, like, the subsidies are getting really expensive for the federal government, which goes back to the issue of kind of like why Democrats didn’t extend these enhanced premiums indefinitely — because it’s just expensive to do it. This is the government subsidizing private health insurance. And then it’s also significant again for those people over 400% poverty who had had a cap on what they would pay. I think it was 9.5% of their income under the enhanced … and now they have no cap. 

Rovner: I think 8.5% of their income, actually, under the enhanced premiums. 

Winfield Cunningham: Under the enhanced. OK. 

Rovner: It’s going to go back to 10%. 

Winfield Cunningham: Yeah. Yeah. But there’s no cap if you’re like over, over 400%. 

Rovner: 400%. 

Winfield Cunningham: Right. Yeah. Yeah. 

Rovner: That’s right. 

Winfield Cunningham: Yeah. But that’s why people are confused. And the other thing is, like, the administration is correct, that the vast majority of people in the marketplaces will continue to get subsidies. And we are basically going back to what the situation was before covid, but it’s that smaller number of people that are at the higher income levels. But the other thought I had was, of course, the health care industry and Democrats are talking a lot about this and spreading these huge premium increases far and wide and making sure everybody hears about them, but it’s like a relatively small number of people, if you think about it. 

And I think it’s only like a couple million people in the marketplaces who are at that higher income levels. And I wonder if that factors into Republicans’ calculations here, where they’re looking at how many voters are actually seeing these massive premium increases, having to pay for all of them. And in the whole scheme of the U.S. population, it’s not like a ton of people. So I just wonder if that’s one reason they’re sort of, like, seem to be increasingly dug in on this and very reticent to extend these subsidies. 

Rovner: Although I would point out that when the Affordable Care Act started, it was only a small number of people who lost their insurance, and that became a gigantic political issue. 

Winfield Cunningham: This is very true. 

Rovner: So it’s the people who get hurt who sometimes yell the loudest, although you’re right. I mean, at that point, the Democrats stayed the course and eventually, as Nancy Pelosi said, people came to like it. So it could work out the same way. It does help explain why everybody’s still dug in. Maya, you wanted to say something. 

Goldman: I was just going to say, I think it’ll be interesting to see, if subsidies aren’t extended, how this affects premiums next year for people and for the federal government, because if a couple million people drop out of the ACA marketplace because it’s too expensive, and those people tend to be healthier, then the remaining pool of people is sicker, and then that’s the death spiral, right? So … 

Rovner: Yeah. Although it is … 

Goldman: Obviously, that’s a lot of what ifs, but … 

Rovner: … only the death spiral that goes back to prior to covid, which — it was kind of stable at 12 million. I’m sort of amused by seeing Republicans complaining about subsidizing insurance companies. It’s like, but this was the Republicans’ idea in the first place, going back to the very origin of the ACA. 

Ollstein: And we should not forget that there is a group of people who are going to be losing all of their subsidies, not just the enhanced subsidies. And that’s legal immigrants, and that’s hundreds of thousands of people. So, like Maya said, that will probably mean a lot of younger, healthier people dropping coverage altogether, which will make the remaining pool of people more expensive to insure. So these things have ripple effects, things that impact one part of the population inevitably impact other parts of the population. And again, these are legal tax-paying immigrants with papers — will be subject to the full force of the premium increases because they won’t have any subsidies. 

Rovner: Yes, our health system at work. All right, we’re going to take a quick break. We will be right back with more health news.  

Moving on, the federal government is technically shut down, but the Trump administration is still making policy. You might remember last summer, a federal judge blocked a Biden administration rule that prevented medical debt from appearing on people’s credit reports. The Trump administration chose not to appeal that ruling, thus killing the rule. Now the administration is going a step further — this week, putting out guidance that tries to stop states from passing their own laws to prevent medical debt from ruining people’s credit, and often their ability to rent, or buy a house, or purchase a car, or even sometimes get a job. According to the acting head of the federal Consumer Financial Protection [Bureau], Russell Vought — yes, that same Russell Vought who’s also cutting federal programs as head of the Office of Management and Budget — states don’t have the authority to restrict medical debt from appearing on credit reports, only the federal government does, which of course he has already shown he doesn’t want to do. Who does this help? I’m not sure I see what the point is of saying we’re not going to do it and states, you can’t do it either. Part of this, I know, is Russell Vought has made no secret of the fact that he would like to undo as much of the federal government as he can. In this case, is he doing the bidding of, I guess it’s the people who extend credit, who, I guess, want this information, want to know whether people have medical debt, think that that’s going to impact whether or not they can pay back their loans, or is this just Russell Vought being Russell Vought? 

Goldman: I guess, in theory, maybe it goes back to the idea that if you have consequences for medical debt, then people will pay their bills, and maybe that would help the health systems in the long run. But I also think that — I don’t know what health systems have said about this particular move, to be honest — but I think there’s an interest in making medical debt less difficult for people to bear in the whole health system. So I’m not sure how popular that is. 

Rovner: Yeah. Yes. Another one of those things that’s sort of like, we’re going to hurt the public to thwart the Democrats, which kind of seems to be an ongoing theme here. Well, as we tape this morning, the Senate health committee was supposed to be holding a hearing on the nomination of RFK Jr. MAHA ally Casey Means to be U.S. surgeon general. Casey Means was going to testify via video conference because she is pregnant, but, apparently, she has gone into labor, so that hearing is not happening. We will pick up on it when that gets rescheduled. Perhaps she will appear with her infant. 

Back at HHS, a U.S. district judge this week indefinitely barred the Trump administration from laying off federal workers during the shutdown, but at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it appears the damage is already done. The New York Times’ global health reporter, Apoorva Mandavilli, reports that the agency appears to have had its workforce reduced by a third and that the entire leadership now consists of political appointees loyal to HHS secretary Kennedy, who has not hidden his disdain for the agency and the fact that he wants to see it dissolved and its activities assigned elsewhere around the department. What would that mean in practice if there, in effect, was no more CDC? 

Winfield Cunningham: Hopefully we don’t have another pandemic. There’s just a lot of stuff the CDC does. And it’s been really confusing to follow these layoffs because in this last round, I remember trying to figure out with my colleague Lena Sun how many people were sent notices and then hundreds were sort of, those were rescinded and they were brought back. But yeah, I mean, I think we’re going to see the effects of this over the next couple of years. When I’ve asked the administration broadly about the reductions to HHS, what they say is that the agency overall has grown quite a lot in its headcount through the pandemic, which is true. I think they got up to like 90,000 or so. And then, according to our best estimates, maybe they’re back around 80,000, although I’m not entirely sure if that’s accurate. Again, it’s really been hard to track this. 

Rovner: Yeah. I’ve seen numbers as low as 60,000. 

Winfield Cunningham: It may be lower. Yeah. Yeah. So I think actually the 80,000, that may have been the headcount before the pandemic. Anyway, all that to say, it did grow during the pandemic, and that’s kind of the argument that they’re making, is that they’re just bringing it back to pre-pandemic levels. 

Rovner: But CDC, I mean, it really does look like they want to just sort of devolve everything that CDC does to the states, right? I mean, that we’re just not going to have as much of a federal public health presence as we’ve had over these past 50, 60 years. 

Winfield Cunningham: For sure. They’ve definitely targeted CDC. I mean, they mostly left CMS alone and FDA because, statutorily, I think it’s easier for them to shrink CDC, but it definitely is going to have massive effects over the next couple of years, especially as we see future pandemics. 

Ollstein: And the whole argument about returning to pre-covid, that doesn’t fit with what they’re actually cutting. I mean, they’re gutting offices that have been around for decades — focused on smoking, focused on maternal health, all these different things. And so this is not just rolling back increases from the past few years. This is going deeper than that. 

Winfield Cunningham: Well, yeah, it’s not like they’re just cutting the roles that were added since the pandemic. 

Ollstein: Exactly. 

Rovner: It’s not a last-in, first-out kind of thing. Well, as I said, since it looks like public health is now mostly going to be devolved to the states, let’s check in on some state doings. In Florida, where state Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo last month announced a plan to end school vaccination mandates. My ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News colleague Arthur Allen has a story about how health officials, including university professors and county health officials, who actually do believe in vaccinating children, are effectively being muzzled, told they cannot speak to reporters without the approval of their supervisors, who are likely to say no. Seeing the rising number of unvaccinated children in a state like Florida, where so many tourists come and go, raising the likelihood of spreading vaccine preventable diseases, this all seems kind of risky, yes? 

Goldman: Yes. That was a fantastic article from your colleague, and there was a really illuminating line, which I think had been reported before, but a reporter asked the surgeon general if he had done any disease modeling before making the decision. And he said, Absolutely not, because this to him was a personal choice issue and not a public health issue. And I think that just goes to show that we have no idea what is going to happen as a result of this public health decision and it could have massive ripple effects. 

Rovner: But what we are already seeing are the rise of vaccine-preventable diseases around the country. I mean, measles, first in Texas, now in South Carolina; whooping cough in Louisiana; I’m sure I am missing some, but we are already seeing the consequences of this dwindling herd immunity, if you will. Alice, you’re nodding your head. 

Ollstein: Yeah. And I’ve heard from experts that measles is really sort of the canary in the coal mine here because it’s so infectious. It spreads so easily. You can have an infected person cough in a room and leave the room, and then a while later, someone else comes in the room and they can catch it. Not all of these vaccine-preventable illnesses are like that. So the fact that we’re seeing these measles outbreaks is an indication that other things are probably spreading as well. We’re just not seeing it yet, which is pretty scary. 

Rovner: And of course, one of the things that the CDC does is collect all of that data, so we’re probably not seeing it for that reason, too. Well, meanwhile, in Texas, Attorney General and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton is suing the makers of Tylenol. He’s claiming that Johnson & Johnson spun off its consumer products division — that includes not just Tylenol, but also things like Band-Aids and Baby Shampoo — to shield it from liability from Tylenol’s causing of autism, something that has not been scientifically demonstrated by the way — even Secretary Kennedy admits that has not been scientifically demonstrated. My recollection, though, is that Johnson & Johnson was trying to shield itself from liability when it spun off its consumer products division, but not because of Tylenol, rather from cancer claims related to talc in its eponymous Baby Powder. So what’s Paxton trying to do here beyond demonstrate his fealty to President Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? 

Ollstein: I was interested to see some GOP senators distancing themselves from the Texas lawsuit and saying like, Look, there is no proof of this connection and this harm. Let’s not go crazy. But as I’ve reported, it’s just very hard to get good information out to people because there just isn’t enough data on the safety of various drugs, because testing drugs on pregnant women was always hard and it’s gotten even harder in recent years. And so, based on the data we have, this is a correlation, not causation. But it would be easier to allay people’s fears if we had more robust and better data. 

Rovner: Yeah. Does a lawsuit like this, though, sort of spread the … give credence to this idea that — I see you nodding, Maya — that there is something to be worried about using Tylenol when pregnant? Which is freaking out the medical community because Tylenol is pretty much the only drug that currently is recommended for pregnant women to deal with fever and pain. 

Goldman: Yeah. I think some of my colleagues have reported on the concern of another death spiral here, right? Where people get concerned, perhaps without basis, of taking Tylenol or any other drugs, vaccines even, because there are lawsuits and then the makers of these drugs say it’s not worth it for us to make these anymore. And then they don’t make them. And then it’s like a bad cascade of events. And so it’s obviously too soon to see if that’s what’s happening here, but it’s certainly something to watch. 

Rovner: But as we’ve pointed out earlier, not treating, particularly, fever can also cause problems. So … 

Ollstein: Right. Basically all of the alternatives are more dangerous. Not taking anything to treat pain and fever in pregnancy can be dangerous and can lead to birth effects. And taking other painkillers and fever reducers are known to have dangerous side effects. Tylenol was the safest option known to science. And now that that’s being questioned in the court of public opinion, people are worried about these ramifications. 

Winfield Cunningham: I think about the effect on moms who have kids with autism who are now thinking back to their pregnancies and thinking, Oh my gosh, how much Tylenol did I take? I know I took, I had pregnancies that I took plenty of Tylenol during. My nephew has autism, and I was talking to my sister about this, and she was like, “I took Tylenol.” And what they’re doing is, I guess, other reflection I have on it is, in general, there’s just less research on most things than we need. And there are some studies showing a correlation, which as we all know is not causation. And what it looks like the administration did was they took those tiny little nuggets of suggestions and have blown them up into this overly confident declaration of Tylenol and pregnancy and probably unnecessarily causing many women to blame themselves or think, Should I have done something differently during my pregnancy? when they were really just doing what their doctor recommended they do. 

Ollstein: I’m surprised that we haven’t seen legal action from Tylenol yet. I imagine we might at some point, especially if there is some kind of government action around this, like a label change. I think we will see some sort of legal action from the company because this is absolutely going to impact their bottom line. 

Rovner: Yeah. All right. Well, finally this week, more news on the reproductive health front. California announced it would help fund Planned Parenthood clinics so they can continue providing basic health services, as well as reproductive health services, after Congress made the organization ineligible for Medicaid funds for a year and the big budget bill passed last summer. California’s the fourth state to pitch in joining fellow blue states Washington, Colorado, and New Mexico. Meanwhile, family planning clinics in Maine are closing today due to that loss of Medicaid funding. And at the same time, the Health and Human Services Office of Population Affairs, which oversees the federal family planning program, Title X, is down apparently from a staff of 40 to 50 to a single employee, . Is contraception going to become the next health care service that’s only available in blue states, Alice? 

Ollstein: So Title X has been in conservatives’ crosshairs for a long time. There have been attempts on Capitol Hill to defund it. There have been various policies of various administrations to make lots of changes to it. Some of those changes have really limited who gets care. And so it’s been a political football for a while. Of course, Title X doesn’t just do contraception. It’s one of the major things they do, providing subsidized and sometimes even free contraception to millions of low-income people around the country. But they also provide STI testing, even some infertility counseling and other things, cancer screenings. And so this is really hitting people at the same time as the anticipated Medicaid cuts, and at the same time Planned Parenthood clinics are closing because they got defunded. And so it’s just one on top of another in the reproductive health space. Each one alone would be really impactful, but taken all together, yeah, there’s a lot of concern about people losing access to these services. 

Winfield Cunningham: I think the politics of this are more interesting to me than the practical effect. I mean, under the ACA, birth control has to be covered, right? by marketplace plans. Generally speaking, if people have insurance, they do have coverage for a range of birth control. But the Title X program is interesting because it seems to like overlap between the MAHA priorities and the social conservatives. Of course, as Alice said, this has long been a target of social conservatives. I think in Project 2025 called for any Title X, I believe. And then there’s this current in the MAHA movement that’s kind of like anti-hormonal birth control and there’s also these kinds of streams of pronatalist people, of have more babies, don’t take birth control. So that’s kind of interesting to me because there’s this larger narrative I think in HHS right now of the RFK MAHA people versus the traditional conservative, anti-abortion people. So that’s just like one program where I see overlap between the two. 

Rovner: One of my favorite pieces of congressional trivia is that Title X has not been reauthorized since 1984, which, by the way, is before I started covering this. But I’ve been doing this 39 years and I have never covered a successful reauthorization of the Title X program. So it’s obviously been in crosshairs for a very, very long time. Maya, did you want to add something? 

Goldman: I was just going to say to Paige’s point, telling women that they can’t take any painkillers during pregnancy is not a good way to raise the birth rate. 

Rovner: Yes. That’s also a fair point. Well, meanwhile, red states are trying to expand the role of crisis pregnancy centers, which provide mostly nonmedical services and try to convince those with unplanned pregnancies not to have abortions. In Wyoming, state lawmakers are pushing a bill that would prohibit the state or any of the localities from regulating those centers “based on the center’s stance against abortion.” This comes after a similar proposal became law in Montana, the efforts being pushed by the anti-abortion group Alliance Defending Freedom. Is the idea here to have crisis pregnancy centers replace these Title X clinics and Planned Parenthoods? 

Ollstein: I think there are a lot of people that would like to see that, but, as you said, they do not provide the same services, so it would not be a one-to-one replacement. Already, there are way more crisis pregnancy centers around the country than there are Planned Parenthood clinics, for example, but that doesn’t mean that everyone has access to all the services they want. 

Rovner: And many of these crisis pregnancy centers don’t have any medical personnel, right? I mean, some of them do, but … 

Ollstein: It’s really a range. I mean, some have a medical director on staff, or maybe there’s one medical person who oversees several clinics, some do not. Some offer ultrasounds, some don’t, some just give pamphlets and diapers and donated items. It’s just really a range around the country. And states have also been grappling with how much to, on the conservative side, support and fund such centers. And on the other side, states like California have really gone to battle over regulating what they tell patients, what they’re required to tell patients, what they can’t tell patients. And that’s gotten into the courts and they’ve fought over whether that violates their speech rights. And so it’s a real ongoing fight. 

Rovner: Yes, I’m sure this will continue. All right, that is the news for this week. Now it’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s where we each recognize a story we read this week we think you should read too. Don’t worry if you miss it; we’ll put the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Maya, why don’t you go first this week? 

Goldman: Sure. So this story is from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News and New England Public Media. It’s called “As Sports Betting Explodes, States Try To Set Limits To Stop Gambling Addiction,” by Karen Brown. And I think this stood out to me because I was just in Vegas last week for health, but this, I think, is a really interesting issue to explore through a public health lens, the issue of sports betting and betting addiction. And there are states that are trying to do a lot of work around this and just organizations. And then of course the gaming companies themselves have their own pushback on that, and I think this story just lays it out really well and it’s an important issue that gets very overlooked. 

Rovner: Yeah, it is a public health issue, an interesting one. Alice? 

Ollstein: I chose a story from ProPublica by reporter, Eric Umansky, and it’s called “.” So this is one of many examples that you could give of policies intended to target transgender folks having spillover effects and impacting cisgender folks, too. In this instance, it’s now harder for male veterans to qualify to get treatment for breast cancer. Men can get breast cancer. Let’s just say that. Men can and do get breast cancer, and it can be harder to detect and very lethal, and obviously very expensive to treat if you don’t have coverage. And so this story has a lot of sad quotes from folks who are losing their coverage, especially because they likely acquired cancer by being exposed during their service to various toxic substances. And so I think, yeah. 

Rovner: Yeah. A combination of a lot of different factors in that story. 

Ollstein: Definitely. 

Rovner: Paige? 

Winfield Cunningham: Yeah. So my story is by, actually, my colleague Mark Johnson. I sit next to him at The [Washington] Post, and the headline is “.” I was really struck by this story because it talks about how patients with advanced lung cancer, they were given the covid vaccines and it somehow had the effect of supercharging their immune systems. And, actually, their median survival rates went up by 17 months compared with those that weren’t given the vaccines. And, of course, this administration has really gone after the covid vaccines and the mRNA research, in particular, and canceled $500 million in funding for mRNA research. And all of the ACIP’s [Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’] moves on vaccines have gotten so much attention. But I think the thing that also is going to be perhaps even more impactful is pulling back on this really promising research, because it has sort of become politicized because the covid vaccines have become politicized. And it seems a shame that we’re pulling back on this really promising research. So I thought that was a really interesting story by my colleague. 

Rovner: Yes. Yet another theme from 2025. My extra credit this week is from my ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News colleague Bernard J. Wolfson, and it’s called “Many Fear Federal Loan Caps Will Deter Aspiring Doctors and Worsen MD Shortage.” And it’s a good reminder about something we did talk about earlier this year when the Republican budget bill passed. It limits federal grad school loans to $50,000 per year at a time when the median tuition for a year in medical school is more than $80,000. The idea here is to push medical schools to lower their tuition, but in the short run, it’s more likely to push lower-income students either out of medicine altogether or to require them to take out private loans with more stringent repayment terms, which could in turn push them into pursuing more lucrative medical specialties rather than the primary care slots that are already so difficult to fill. It’s yet another example of how everybody agrees on a problem: Medical education is way too expensive in this country. But nobody knows quite how to fix it.  

OK. That is this week’s show. Thanks this week to our editor, Emmarie Huetteman, and our producer-engineer, Francis Ying. A reminder, “What the Health?” is now available on WAMU platforms, the NPR app, and wherever else you get your podcasts, as well as, of course, kffhealthnews.org. If you already follow the show, nothing will change. The podcast will show up in your feed as usual. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org, or you can find me at X, , or on Bluesky, . Where are you folks hanging these days? Maya? 

Goldman: I am on X as and I’m also on . 

Rovner: Alice? 

Ollstein: on Bluesky and on X.  

Rovner: Paige? 

Winfield Cunningham: I am still on X. 

Rovner: Great. We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy. 

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Schrödinger’s Government Shutdown /podcast/what-the-health-418-government-shutdown-aca-obamacare-subsidies-cdc-layoffs-october-16-2025/ Thu, 16 Oct 2025 19:20:00 +0000 /?p=2102340&post_type=podcast&preview_id=2102340 The Host
Julie Rovner photo
Julie Rovner ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News Read Julie's stories. Julie Rovner is chief Washington correspondent and host of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ weekly health policy news podcast, "What the Health?" A noted expert on health policy issues, Julie is the author of the critically praised reference book "Health Care Politics and Policy A to Z," now in its third edition.

Democrats and Republicans are both facing potential political consequences in their continuing standoff over federal government funding. Republicans are likely to face a voter backlash if they refuse to agree to Democrats’ demands that they renew additional tax credits for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, since the majority of those facing premium hikes live in GOP-dominated states. For their part, Democrats are worried that Republicans will violate the terms of any potential spending deal.

At the same time, the Trump administration is using the shutdown to try to lay off thousands of federal workers, including those performing key public health roles at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

This week’s panelists are Julie Rovner of ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, Anna Edney of Bloomberg News, Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico Magazine, and Lauren Weber of The Washington Post.

Panelists

Anna Edney photo
Anna Edney Bloomberg News
Joanne Kenen photo
Joanne Kenen Johns Hopkins University and Politico
Lauren Weber photo
Lauren Weber The Washington Post

Among the takeaways from this week’s episode:

  • As the federal government shutdown drags on, there has been little progress toward a deal on government spending — or on the expiring ACA marketplace subsidies Democrats are fighting to renew. Potential subsidy compromises could, for instance, implement a minimal premium in place of $0 premiums, to reduce enrollment fraud, as Republicans want.
  • A federal judge halted the Trump administration’s latest layoffs of federal workers amid questions about the layoffs’ legality. The administration in particular dealt a heavy blow this round to the CDC, an agency that has been battered by staff reductions, policy shifts, and even violence.
  • New reporting shows the Trump administration explored the feasibility of tracing abortion pill residue in wastewater, following up on an anti-abortion claim that the drugs may be contaminating the water supply. Yet advocates could have an ulterior motive: developing the ability to trace use of the pill to further crack down on abortions.
  • And President Donald Trump unveiled a deal with a second drugmaker, AstraZeneca, that allows the company to avoid tariffs in exchange for building a new U.S. facility. But as with the first deal, it’s unclear how much money the agreement will save patients.

Also this week, Rovner interviews health insurance analyst Louise Norris of about the Medicare open enrollment period, which began Oct. 15.

Plus, for “extra credit” the panelists suggest health policy stories they read this week that they think you should read, too: 

Julie Rovner: Politico’s “,” by Alice Miranda Ollstein.

Anna Edney: The New York Times’ “,” by Maia Szalavitz.

Joanne Kenen: Mother Jones’ “,” by Kiera Butler and Julianne McShane.

Lauren Weber: ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ “Senators Press Deloitte, Other Contractors on Errors in Medicaid Eligibility Systems,” by Rachana Pradhan and Samantha Liss.

Also mentioned in this week’s podcast:

  • The Washington Post’s “,” by Lauren Weber and Rachel Roubein.
  • The Bulwark’s “,” by Jonathan Cohn.
  • Politico’s “,” by Benjamin Guggenheim.
  • The New York Times’ “,” by Caroline Kitchener and Coral Davenport.
  • Bloomberg News’ “,” by Satviki Sanjay.
click to open the transcript Transcript: Schrödinger’s Government Shutdown

[Editor’s note: This transcript was generated using both transcription software and a human’s light touch. It has been edited for style and clarity.] 

Julie Rovner: Hello, and welcome back to “What the Health?” I’m Julie Rovner, chief Washington correspondent for ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News, and I’m joined by some of the best and smartest health reporters in Washington. We’re taping this week on Thursday, Oct. 16, at 10 a.m. As always, news happens fast and things might’ve changed by the time you hear this. So, here we go. 

Today we are joined via videoconference by Lauren Weber of The Washington Post. 

Lauren Weber: Hello, hello. 

Rovner: Anna Edney of Bloomberg News. 

Anna Edney: Hi. 

Rovner: And Joanne Kenen of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Politico Magazine. 

Joanne Kenen: Hey, everybody. 

Rovner: Later in this episode we’ll play my interview with health insurance expert Louise Norris, who will explain some of the changes coming with this year’s open enrollment for Medicare, which began Wednesday. But first, this week’s news. 

So, today is Day 16 of the government shutdown, and there is still no discernible end in sight. This week Republicans shifted their main talking point against Democrats. They were arguing that Democrats are trying to restore eligibility for Medicaid to illegal immigrants. Now it’s become a general takedown of the Affordable Care Act and arguing that in urging continuing the expanded tax credits for ACA premiums, Democrats want to throw good money after bad, because the ACA has made health care more expensive. 

First off, it has not. There’s lots of evidence that the ACA has actually held down health spending increases, although other factors have pushed it up. But more to the point, do Republicans still not get that the expiration of these additional tax credits are going to hurt their voters more than it’s going to hurt Democratic voters? I see arched eyebrows. 

Edney: It doesn’t seem like they get that yet, but I’m not in those strategy rooms, so a little tough to say what their line will be with this game of chicken. They basically are allowing firings of federal workers to continue to go forward in a way that they hope maybe will turn the tide and attention. It doesn’t seem to be working. So I don’t know if they’re having these conversations quite yet, but I know that the notices are starting to go out to some people in some states about these increases, and so it really might depend on what that backlash is from people who are going to see much higher costs for their health care. 

Rovner: Yeah, apparently open enrollment began in Idaho on Wednesday. I didn’t realize that they started early, and so there’s just that one little state where people are actually able to see what these premium increases look like, assuming that they do not continue these extra subsidies. I’m wondering sort of about the Republican strategy of, We couldn’t get any traction with the illegal immigrants, so we’re just going to move to “The ACA is terrible.” Joanne. 

Kenen: Well, I mean, we talked about this a couple of weeks ago. And Julie linked to , and I wrote about the politics of this. And one of the issues is [President Donald] Trump is a master of deflection. Are these people going to think it’s really Republican policy? Or are they going to think it’s greedy insurers, leftovers of the flaws of Obamacare itself, it’s Biden’s fault? And also concentration, I mean where the voters are in these states. Are there enough of them who actually are going to turn out to make a difference? They’re not going to flip Texas, right? 

Are there enough of them in swing states or closer-margin states to make any difference? Are there enough in a single congressional district to make any difference? I mean part of it, I think they’re just sort of banking on that they won’t get the blame, that it’s really easy for us to get mad at our insurers. And I think that’s part of what they’re hoping, that they can just say: Blame them. Blame the structure of Obamacare. Because it’s not our fault. So, whether that works as a selling tactic remains to be seen. If they thought it was a huge political risk, they wouldn’t do it. 

Rovner: True. Lauren. 

Weber: I’ve been fascinated to see [Rep.] Marjorie Taylor-Green come out and say, Wow, these are some expensive premiums. And her in general, her seeming split from some parts of the Republican Party, is fascinating to watch for many reasons. But it’s just a lot of money that these people could be staring down. I mean, there was an analyst quoted in some coverage that was, like, people will have to decide between groceries and rent. I mean, if you are paying over a thousand dollars more a month, for some of these folks, I mean, that is a significant amount of cash. So, I do feel like people vote with their pocketbooks more than they vote with anything else. But to Joanne’s point, I mean, will they attribute the blame? I’m not sure. 

Rovner: So,  on some possible options for a deal on those subsidies, which lawmakers are apparently talking about quietly behind closed doors, since actual negotiations are not yet happening. Two of those possibilities seem like real potential common ground. Minimum premiums â€” so, people who are now not paying any premiums, and the argument from some Republicans is that that’s pushing fraud, because some people, if they’re not paying premiums, don’t even know that they’re enrolled, and that the brokers are making money, which my colleague Julie Appleby has written about ad nauseum. So that seems like a possible place for compromise, to have a minimum $5-a-month premium so people would know that they have insurance. And maximum incomes for the subsidies. I know that people are floating, like, $200,000 a year or something like that. 

Then there are two possibilities that at least strike me as less likely. One of them is grandfathering the subsidies, so only people who are getting them now could continue to get them, which would be problematic at a time when the economy seems to be shedding jobs, and changing the abortion language, which I don’t even want to start with. So, I’m seeing the first two as a real possibility. The second two, not so much. I’m wondering what you guys think. 

Kenen: I mean, I’ve talked to some Republicans who claim that the current structure of the subsidies would enable families who are making $600,000, which all of us would agree is a fair amount of money. When I was told that, I went on a whole bunch of different calculators and pretended I was making $600,000. And could I actually get the subsidies? And I kept being laughed at by these calculators. I think there are probably some cases where this has happened. It’s a complicated formula where 8% of â€” we don’t have to get into the technicality. There may be— 

Rovner: But it is a percent of your income. You only get a subsidy if it’s more than â€” yeah. 

Kenen: And you’d have to have a premium that’s, like, an extraordinarily rich premium. I mean, it has to be in a really, really, really, really high number. Can this exist under current law? Several reputable Republicans have told me yes. Or conservatives â€” they’re not all necessarily Republicans. Conservative on this issue, at least â€” have said yes. I mean, if that’s the kind of thing that you want, to set an income cap, that was probably what was intended. I would take that out of the nonstarter and into the starter pile. I don’t think that’s enough, but I think that’s a reasonable discussion for both sides to have. I don’t think the intention was to subsidize people who were really not lower-middle, middle class. 

Rovner: The people who got the big tax cuts. 

Kenen: Right. They’re getting other tax cuts. I thought that was an interesting piece with some interesting options, but I’m also hearing escalating rhetoric, back to 2014 kind of rhetoric, back to repeal kind of rhetoric, that everything that you hate about the health care system is the fault of Obamacare, nothing in Obamacare works. We’ve got a really â€” they’re not saying “repeal,” but they’re saying reform it, and I’m hearing more and more of that. It’s just in the air now. So, and Jon Cohn had a really good piece  about some of the background of this. I think it could mean that this becomes a more intense tug-of-war that does not bode well for a quick resolution of the shutdown. 

I don’t think we necessarily get into a yearlong repeal fight, even if you call it reform. But I think that these demands and this rhetoric about, Well, high-risk pools worked. Well, no, they didn’t. That, This is why your insurance costs have gone up. No, there’s a whole bunch of incentives and structures and bad stuff in our health care system. It is, Obamacare fixed certain problems. Those of us, we all have employer insurance, I believe, and all of us face cost increases and frustrations and hitting our head against brick walls and delays. And things are not perfect by any means, but it’s not because of these subsidies in Obamacare. 

Rovner: And it’s not because of Obamacare. [Barack] Obama himself this week was on a podcast and said it was intended as a start, not as the be-all, end-all. I was surprised. I mean, I think one of the reasons that Republicans, I mean, this is now in their talking points about, We’re going to go after Obamacare. And [Rep.] Mike Johnson, the speaker, had kind of a rant on Monday, I mean, which sort of opened this up. And I think some of the Republicans were also talking about it on the Sunday shows. But I can’t imagine that Republicans don’t remember that the last time they had this big fight against Obamacare, Obamacare won. That was in 2017, and if anything, it’s even more popular now because there’s twice as many people on it, which was kind of the way I set up my first question. 

Kenen: Right. But the dynamic of a year’s worth of repeal votes while other things are actually functioning in government versus a fight about this when Trump holds a lot of the cards in a shutdown â€” it’s comparable but not the same. 

Rovner: Anna? 

Edney: Well, and I also have to wonder if an actual extended replace, or reform, whatever we’re going to call it, fight is what they want, or if this is a strategy to help blame the increases in premiums that are coming on Obamacare in general directed towards the Democrats, right?. I mean, you can see how that line could be drawn. And so if they just keep bashing Obamacare, it’s Obamacare’s fault that Obamacare’s premiums got higher, not because they didn’t vote on extending the subsidies. 

Kenen: And we’re also talking about Obamacare again. We had been talking about the Affordable Care Act. It had gone from Obamacare, which is politically toxic, to Affordable Care Act, which was sort of a subtle acknowledgment that it had bipartisan popularity among people getting benefits. And now we’re back to Obamacare, which sort of tells me, yes, we’re back into some of this endless loop of political fights about Obamacare. 

Rovner: Yeah. 

Kenen: And trying to get the Guinness Book of World Records for repeal votes on a single piece of legislation. 

Rovner: Well, meanwhile â€” and I said this last week and I think the week before â€” that even if there is a deal on the tax credits, the bigger problem for Democrats right now is that if they make a deal on spending levels for fiscal 2026, which is what this fight is actually over, the administration can simply undo it, and Congress can ratify that undoing with a simple majority of just Republican votes. This week, even Republican [Sen.] Lisa Murkowski wondered aloud why Democrats would do a deal like that. So, I’m still wondering how they get out of that box, even if they were to get some kind of a compromise on the ACA subsidies. I certainly don’t know how Democrats get out of that box. I think the Republicans don’t know how they get out of that box. 

Kenen: They don’t realize they’re both in the box. That’s one of the problems. This is a large box. 

Rovner: It’s Schrödinger’s shutdown. We will have to see how that plays itself out. In the meantime, I’m not holding my breath. Well, moving on, despite laws against it, as Anna already mentioned, the Trump administration began firing federal workers last week, and the cuts hit particularly hard at the Department of Health and Human Services and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. The cuts appeared both sweeping and devastating, at least at first, including the entire staff of the CDC’s news journal and lead public health source of information, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Though by the end of the weekend, many of the firings had been rescinded. It’s not clear whether that really was a coding mistake, as was the official explanation, or an effort to continue to put federal workers, quote, air quotes here, “in trauma” as OMB [Office of Management and Budget] Director Russell Vought famously promised before he took office for the second time. Whichever, it’s not really the way to get the best work out of your workforce, right? Telling you: You’re fired. No, you’re not. Maybe you are? Go ahead, Lauren. 

Weber: I would like to go back to  when a bunch of fired health workers were told to contact an employee who had died. I don’t think, based on the coding error or some of these past things, it does not seem like these layoffs are being done in any sort of organized way. It doesn’t seem like they have up-to-date records. It seems like, also, are these layoffs even legal, based on some of the litigation that’s been filed? I think there’s going to be a lot that has to shake out there. But, I mean, to be quite honest, it is very striking to see a bunch of CDC employees continue to get laid off after, again, this is an agency that got shot at with hundreds of bullets. Police officer— 

Rovner: Yeah, literally shot at. 

Weber: Literally shot at with hundreds of bullets, and a police officer died responding to that, due to a shooter who had been radicalized in part, it seems, from his father’s account, by information that was wrong about the covid vaccine. So, to see more of those employees get laid off, I mean, you just have to wonder who’s going to want to work at these places. Morale is just completely, as we understand it, terrible. But yeah, I also question if that was a coding error or what exactly was happening there, because there were a lot of priorities of folks that were seemingly let go that are allegedly Make America Healthy Again priorities, but that’s also been true for many months of policymaking, so— 

Rovner: Yeah, there’s a lot of right hand not seemingly knowing what left hand is doing in all of this, which may be the goal. I mean, I think you put your finger on it. It’s like, who would want to work at these places after what’s being done? And I think that’s the whole idea of the Russell Vought strategy of, Let’s shrink the federal government to a point where it’s so small that you can just sort of put it in a box and put it under the bed. That’s essentially where we are. Well, Lauren, as you mentioned, Wednesday afternoon, a federal district court judge ordered the administration to pause the firings. But will they actually obey that? And do we even know what offices have been most affected at this point? 

I mean, we heard a lot of things like the entire Office of Population Affairs at HHS, which runs Title X, has apparently been reduced to one person. The people who do a lot of the statistics and survey work at CDC. All these people sort of appear to have been laid off, but we’re not quite sure, and we’re not quite sure what’s going to happen from here. 

Kenen: I’m not sure if they know they’ve been laid off and rehired, because if you were laid off, you lost your access to your work email, and then if you get an email in your work email saying, Oops, you’re hired. I mean, I guess people sort of may just see if they have access again, but I’m not really sure how the actual notification of this somewhat chaotic layoff, no-layoff thing is. 

Rovner: It has been chaotic. I think that’s a good word to describe all of this. Well, one reason it was relatively easy for the administration to go after the CDC is that it doesn’t have a leader â€” or even a nominated leader â€” at the moment, after the firing of Susan Monarez in August, less than a month after her Senate confirmation vote. Another high HHS position that remains vacant is that of surgeon general, although that office at least has a nominee, Casey Means. She’s the sister of RFK [Robert F. Kennedy] Jr. top aide and MAHA associate Calley Means and more than a little bit controversial. Lauren, you did a deep dive this week into the prospective surgeon general. What’d you find? 

Weber: Yeah, my colleague Rachel Roubein and I did  into her background. And she’s, look, she’s a fascinating example, really, of MAHA today. And you could argue she really wrote the manifesto to MAHA with her book “Good Energy” that she authored with her brother, Calley Means. But basically she’s a very accomplished person in the sense that she went to Stanford undergrad; she graduated from Stanford med school; she had a very prestigious residency in ear, nose, and throat surgery; and then she resigned. She left and decided she wanted to take a different path and has become a bestselling author, a health products entrepreneur, and has also worked, as her financial disclosures have revealed, to promote a variety of products in some of her work. Financial disclosures revealed that she had received over half a million dollars over basically the last year and a half promoting a variety of different supplements, teas, elixirs, diagnostic products, and so on. 

And several of the medical and scientific experts I spoke to said that they worried that she spoke in too absolute of terms about health, and they were really concerned that as someone who would be the surgeon general that she would use that bully pulpit and speak in terms not necessarily grounded in evidence. They pointed to some of her remarks about how cancer and Alzheimer’s and fertility was within one’s power to prevent and reverse, and they felt like that language went a step too far. And looking at her history, they are concerned about what that could mean for the health of the nation if she is directing it. 

Rovner: She doesn’t even have a confirmation hearing scheduled yet, does she? Well, the Senate’s in so they could. 

Weber: She is pregnant, so I think that is playing into the timing of some of her stuff. But yes, she does not have it scheduled. Her forms seemingly were pretty delayed. And then obviously there’s other things going on. I mean, I think the CDC firing also sucked a lot of health air out of the room of what people want to deal with and spend their political capital on, I suspect. But yes, we shall see. 

Kenen: Yeah, she has to go before the [Senate] HELP [Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions] Committee, which is, Sen. [Bill] Cassidy is the chair. He is not a happy camper at the moment, from his public statements, and we do not know what the private conversations he is having at this point in time. 

Rovner: And of course, that committee will also have to pass on the new CDC nominee when there is one. 

Kenen: Yes. And the last CDC hearing, which all of us watched, I think he’s clearly concerned and displeased by lots of things going on at the federal health agencies. So, none of us are in those rooms, but they’re probably interesting conversations. 

Rovner: As I like to say, we will watch that space. Well, turning to reproductive health, The New York Times has  this week about something that we’ve talked about before on the podcast, arguments by anti-abortion activists that abortion pill residue in wastewater might be contaminating the nation’s waterways. Notwithstanding that there is no evidence of that, the Environmental Protection [Agency], acting on a request from anti-abortion lawmakers in Congress, ordered scientists to see if they could develop methods to detect the drug in wastewater. Now, the groups that originally pushed this say they were concerned about pollution. But if such a detection method is successfully developed, abortion rights supporters worry that it could be used to trace users in particular buildings in order to enforce abortion bans. This is basically another step in this sort of, Let’s try and shut down abortion nationwide. Is it not? And Anna I see you nodding. 

Edney: Well, I mean that was my feeling when I read this really good piece that you’re talking about. And it’s a little bit lower down in the piece when they do start talking about using this to target maybe buildings or places where someone might have used an abortion drug. And I kind of was like, Yes, this is what I assumed they were trying to do, as I read this. And the reason for that is not just because I feel like there’s always a vindictive motive or something, but it’s because there are lots of drugs that are in our wastewater, and people are taking far larger amounts daily of many more things that is all going into our wastewater. So, particularly, why you would want to track that one, which is not used by millions of people for a chronic condition on a daily basis, it seems like there would be an ulterior motive. 

Rovner: And has not been shown to do any harm, even if it is showing up in trace amounts in the wastewater. Although presumably that’s what the EPA scientists were also tasked with trying to figure out. 

Kenen: I mean, it’s really hard to get rid of a drug you no longer take. I mean, pharmacies don’t want to take it back. In my neighborhood, there is a pharmacy at a supermarket that does have a take-back, which is great, but it’s always broken. If you have any drug that you want to get rid of responsibly and not have it end up â€” Anna’s right, I mean, there’s just a lot of stuff in our water. It’s really hard to do. And this is not the only drug that is an issue with. 

Rovner: Although if you Google it, there are a lot of places where you can actually take back drugs. 

Kenen: It’s hard. It’s limited hours, limited access, and the machines are often— 

Rovner: Yeah. Yeah. 

Kenen: I’ve been trying for a couple of them for a few months, actually. 

Rovner: You do have to actually take some steps actively to do it. Well, turning to drugs, and drug prices, there was so much other news, you might’ve missed this, but President Trump last Friday afternoon announced a deal with a second drug company to bring back manufacturing, in order to avoid tariffs. This deals with AstraZeneca, which promised to build a plant in Virginia. But Anna, is there any promise to actually bring down prices for consumers in any of this? 

Edney: Minimally, possibly. It’s a lot like the Pfizer deal, and we saw that focus largely on Medicaid, that already has extremely steep discounts that are required by law. And so how much they’d actually be slashing to offer the “most favored nations” pricing that Trump wants to the Medicaid program, it seems like that probably isn’t a huge leap, and certainly we saw that Wall Street didn’t react with any hair on fire. They’re not worried about the bottom lines of these companies when these deals come out, and they’re avoiding tariffs for three years. So, kind of net positive, seemingly. We don’t have all the details of the deal— 

Rovner: Like with the Pfizer deal where we never got all the details. 

Edney: Yeah, exactly. So, there’s some stuff that we still don’t know, but Medicaid is the main focus. Then they’ll offer, again, some of their drugs on TrumpRx. So, maybe if your insurance doesn’t cover something, or if you don’t have insurance, and you want to get a drug, that might be helpful. But most people I think are going to opt to pay their lower copay than the cost of a drug that is discounted but still full price. 

Rovner: Well, in case you’re looking for a reason why it might be a good thing to reshore some drug manufacturing, the World Health Organization this week warned of  made in India. According to one of your Bloomberg colleagues, Anna, 22 children have died in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh â€” I hope I’m pronouncing that close to right. And this is far from the first time poisonous substances have been found in medications made in India, right? You’ve done a lot of reporting on this. 

Edney: Yeah, for sure, and these are really tragic stories that now seem to keep, particularly with these kind of cough medicines, keep popping up. And thankfully the FDA did put out a message saying these cough medicines in this round were not sold in the U.S., but there have been times where India has imported some of these. There were children in the Gambia that died last time â€” this was a few years ago. Because what’s happening is some of the drugmakers in India are supposed to be purchasing a solvent. It’s propylene glycol. Well, that solvent, that helps the medicine kind of all mix together. It can be a lot cheaper if you buy something that looks like it but is actually deadly, diethylene glycol. And so that’s what some of these companies are doing, is saving money and substituting a deadly ingredient. And so we see that this is a problem a lot of times with some of the drugmakers, and it’s happened, unfortunately, particularly in India, where the cost-cutting, the corner-cutting has actually affected people’s lives, and in this case, tragically, children. 

Rovner: Yeah. There is reason to kind of want to keep drug manufacturing where the FDA can keep an eye on it, which I know you will continue to report on. 

Edney: For sure. 

Rovner: Because that has been your specialty, I know, of late. 

Edney: Yes. 

Rovner: All right, that is this week’s news. Now we will play my Medicare open enrollment interview with Louise Norris, and then we’ll come back with our extra credits. 

I am so pleased to welcome to the podcast Louise Norris. She’s a health policy analyst at Medicareresources.org and at Healthinsurance.org and the author of some of the most helpful guides to health insurance out there â€” and the person who keeps track of all the changes for health reporters like me. Louise, so happy to welcome you to “What the Health?” 

Louise Norris: Thank you so much, Julie. It’s a pleasure to be here. 

Rovner: So, we’ve talked a lot these past few months about how the Affordable Care Act and its potentially skyrocketing premiums for 2026 is about to happen, but we haven’t talked as much about some of the changes to Medicare, for which open enrollment began this week. Now, most years it’s probably OK for Medicare recipients just to let whatever coverage they have kind of roll over. But that’s not the case this year, right? 

Norris: Well, I feel like it’s never the best idea to just let your coverage roll over, because there’s always plan-specific changes that people just really need to pay attention to. And even though averages might be fairly steady in terms of premiums and benefits, that doesn’t mean your plan will have a steady premium or benefits. And for 2026, we’re seeing in the Medicare Advantage and Part D â€”stand-alone Part D â€” drug plans, there are fewer plans available on average and actually a slight average decrease in premiums. But I feel like if people see that as the headline, they might be sort of lulled into complacency, of like, Oh, I just don’t need to look, when in reality there’s quite a bit of variation from one plan to another. So, although the average stand-alone Part D plan premium is actually decreasing slightly, some plans are increasing their premiums by as much as $50 a month. So, you need to really pay attention to the notice you got from your plan about what’s happening for 2026 and then comparison-shop. Comparison-shop is always in your best interest every year. 

Rovner: Right, because, I mean, people don’t realize that maybe your doctor’s been dropped from your Medicare Advantage plan or your drug has been dropped from your Part D plan. So, I mean, even if your premium doesn’t change that much, your coverage might be changing a lot, right? 

Norris: Exactly. And you don’t want to find that out when you go to the pharmacy in January to fill your prescription and then you’re locked into your Part D plan for all of 2026. It’s definitely better to know all those details at this right now during open enrollment. 

Rovner: Now there are some coverage changes that people are starting to feel from really a couple of years ago, yes? 

Norris: There are. So, there’s some basic changes like, for example, the maximum out-of-pocket cost on Part D plans, which just went into effect in 2025 under the Inflation Reduction Act, it was a $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket costs for Part D. That is indexed for inflation. So for 2026 it goes up to $2,100. So not a huge change but definitely a change people should know about. And you do still have the option to work with your plan to spread that out in equal payments across all 12 months of the year instead of having to meet it right at the beginning of the year, if you take an expensive medication. There’s this change in the maximum Part D deductible, just like there is every year. This year it’s, for 2025, it’s $590 is the maximum deductible. It’ll be $615 next year. That doesn’t mean your plan will have a $615 deductible, but it might. 

But there are also plan-specific changes that vary from one plan to another. So, for example, your Medicare Advantage plan might be adding or subtracting supplemental benefits. They might be changing the amount of your deductible or changing the amount of your inpatient hospital copay. There’s all sorts of changes that aren’t necessarily broadly applicable but that apply to your plan. And then, like you were saying, whether or not your doctor and hospital are still in the network, whether your prescription drug is still covered and covered at the same level, plans can move prescription drugs from one tier to another. So, those are all the sorts of things you really need to pay attention to now so that you can comparison-shop and see if something else might be a better option. 

Rovner: And we are seeing plans starting to sort of drop out. I mean, I know at one point there was concern that there were too many plans for people to choose from, that it was, just, it was too confusing. But now are we running the risk of having too few plans in some places? 

Norris: Well, I think the concern about too many plans is definitely valid. For a while, there were — it could definitely be overwhelming for people shopping for coverage. For both Medicare Advantage and Part D, we do have, overall, an average of a reduction in how many plans are available for next year. There are a few states where the average beneficiary will actually see more options for Medicare Advantage, but that’s rare. But the average beneficiary will have access to more Medicare Advantage plans than they did before 2022, for example. It’s just been in the last few years that it has decreased, but it still hasn’t decreased below the level that it was in 2022. So it’s still a lot. I believe it’s an average of 32 plans. And then in the Part D, for people who buy stand-alone Part D coverage, everybody has between eight and 12 plans to pick from. 

So, if your plan is ending, you obviously need to shop for new coverage. If you’re on a Medicare Advantage plan and you don’t shop for new coverage, you’ll just be automatically moved to original Medicare on Jan. 1. If you’re on a Medicare Advantage plan that’s ending, because your carrier is exiting the market or pulling out of your area and your plan can’t be renewed, you can pick any other Medicare Advantage plan that’s available in your area. But you also can do, you can switch to original Medicare, and you’ll have guaranteed issue access to Medigap, which is not normally the case. During this open enrollment period, people have guaranteed issue access to Medicare Advantage and Part D but not Medigap. So, for other folks whose Medicare Advantage plan is continuing, obviously they have the option to switch to original Medicare. But depending on how long they’ve been on their Advantage plan and what state they’re in, they do not have guaranteed issue access to Medigap. So, that is an important thing for folks to know if their plan is actually ending, is that they can make that choice if they want to. 

Rovner: We’ve seen a lot of increases in health care costs overall, and I guess that’s true for Medicare, too. I mean, why should people who aren’t on Medicare care about what happens to Medicare and what happens to the Medicare market? 

Norris: First of all, hopefully all of us will eventually be on Medicare. Almost everyone by the time they’re 65 is on Medicare. But even if you’re a long ways away from that, it is important to know how much the whole Medicare sphere, in terms of the insurance companies and the regulations, how that sort of trickles down to the rest of the commercial insurance sector. Drug price negotiation, for example, that will have a trickle-down effect into what the insurance companies in the rest of the commercial market pay for drugs. When regulations come out for Medicare, they oftentimes, the insurance companies follow suit in the private market, or states will follow suit in terms of how they regulate the private market. So, it certainly does matter for everyone, even if it’s not a direct effect. 

Rovner: So even if you’re not 65 or helping somebody who’s over 65. 

Norris: Exactly, yes, and that’s the other thing is a lot of folks who are younger are helping a parent or a grandparent navigate this, and so it really does affect most people. 

Rovner: Yeah, it is one of the autumn tasks for many people. 

Norris: Absolutely. 

Rovner: Helping Mom and Dad or Grandma and Grandpa navigate their Medicare coverage for the following year. 

Norris: And I do think, like you were saying earlier, as far as just letting it ride, obviously if you comparison-shop and you’re happy with your coverage and you’ve determined that it is still the best option, then, yes, you do not need to do anything. You just, assuming it’s still available for renewal, you just let it renew. But oftentimes I think people don’t comparison-shop, simply because the process seems overwhelming and they just figure, I’ll just keep what I have. And of course, if you’re in that situation, you might be one of the people who’s on a Part D plan that’s increasing by $50 a month next year, or you might find out in January that your doctor’s no longer in-network with your Advantage plan. 

So if you get those notices from your plan and something doesn’t make sense or you’re confused, it’s much better to reach out to someone who can help you, whether it’s a family member or friend, asking them for help, or call 1-800-MEDICARE. Call the Medicare SHIP in your state. Every state has a State Health Insurance Assistance Program that’s staffed with people who can answer your questions. Contact a Medicare broker in your area. Just asking questions and finding out the answers is a much better approach than just assuming things will work out if you just let your plan renew. 

Rovner: I’ll put a link to your site also. 

Norris: Yeah, . We do have an open enrollment guide where we list all of the changes that are happening for 2026, the broad changes, and we’ll continue to update that. For example, we don’t yet have the Medicare Part B premiums for 2026, so as those numbers come out, we’ll update that guide with everything people need to know. 

Rovner: Louise Norris, thank you so much. 

Norris: Absolutely. Thank you so much for having me, Julie. 

Rovner: OK, we’re back. It’s time for our extra-credit segment. That’s where we each recognize the story we read this week we think you should read, too. Don’t worry if you miss it. We will put the links in our show notes on your phone or other mobile device. Joanne, why don’t you go first this week? 

Kenen: The piece I have this week is from Mother Jones, and it’s about Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo. And the headline is “,” by Kiera Butler and Julianne McShane. It’s a phenomenal read. He has stellar credentials â€” Harvard, Stanford. He was an academic medicine MPH [master of public health]. He’s public health and medicine. He had this stellar traditional career. He was widely respected. And now he is this leading voice. He’s trying to get rid of the vaccine mandates, childhood vaccine mandates, to the whole state of Florida. He has questioned all sorts of established public health practices. He is out there. And we’ve sort of all wondered: How do people get to this point? 

And this story talks about his wife and her mysticism, and their guru healer, who walks on their thighs to the point that it’s painful. And they emerge from this foot-walking thigh-walking thing, and his mystical experiences with this whole different take on the human experience and the role of health. I cannot begin to capture it. And here it is. It is a long, detailed, and fascinating read on his wife, who he met on an airplane, and her beliefs in, we bring certain things on ourselves because of who we are and who are the ancestors that we carry. She sees auras and visions, and this is their current belief system. And it is not compatible with what most of us think of as science-based public health. Really good read. Really, really good read. 

Rovner: Definitely MAHA to the max. Anna. 

Edney: Mine was a guest essay in The New York Times, “,” [by Maia Szalavitz]. And I thought it was a really great look at how some of these obesity medications, the GLP-1s like Ozempic and others, can be used to treat addiction. And so it follows this woman who was addicted to different kinds of drugs at different times. And she lost her children and all sorts of horrible things and had tried over and over again to stop using, and then has been in this program that uses a version of these GLP-1s at a lower level â€” they don’t necessarily want you also losing weight â€” but to treat addiction, and just how it’s kind of been the only thing that’s worked for her. It stops the cravings, kind of as you think it might do for people with obesity as well. 

I thought we don’t see this as much, and the companies that make these drugs aren’t extremely focused on this. So I thought the article did a good job of saying why this could be really important, and looking at the fact that right now it requires federal funding of research to keep the promise alive, and hope that at some point some pharmaceutical company will be more willing to pick it up. 

Rovner: Right now, there’s a lot more money to be made in the obesity side of this. But yeah, it’s a really interesting story. Lauren. 

Weber: I actually highlighted work from Rachana Pradhan and Samantha Liss from ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News. The article’s titled “Senators Press Deloitte, Other Contractors on Errors in Medicaid Eligibility Systems.” It’s impact from their great reporting, which I think we talked about on this podcast earlier in the year, about how â€” talk about waste, fraud, and abuse â€” that there’s some questionable issues with how Deloitte manages Medicaid systems and how money’s being wasted through them. And the senators, it looks like, read ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News’ reporting and have sent some letters about it. So, great work by the team over there, and eye-opening for sure to see, on some of the dollars, Medicaid, that are not going to patients. 

Rovner: Journalism impact. My extra credit this week is a really thoughtful story from our fellow podcast panelist Alice Miranda Olstein at Politico. It’s called “” It’s about a topic that I have been covering for more than three decades â€” the difficulties of including women, particularly women of childbearing age, in clinical trials of drugs. As Alice outlined so well, the problem isn’t just ethical â€” an unborn fetus obviously can’t give informed consent to be part of an experiment â€” but it’s also a question of liability. Drugmakers are afraid of getting sued for bad pregnancy outcomes, and with good reason. That’s why it’s so hard to know what is and isn’t safe to take during pregnancy and what might cause birth defects or miscarriages. And despite the secretary’s promise to, quote, “do the science,” it is not that easy. It’s a really, really good read. 

OK, that is this week’s show. Thanks this week to our editor, Emmarie Huetteman, and our producer-engineer, Francis Ying. If you enjoy the podcast, you can subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We’d appreciate it if you left us a review. That helps other people find us, too. Also, as always, you can email us your comments or questions. We’re at whatthehealth@kff.org. Or you can find me still on X, , or on Bluesky, . Where are you folks these days? Joanne? 

Kenen: I’m either on Bluesky, , or on . 

Rovner: Anna? 

Edney:  or , @annaedney. 

Rovner: Lauren. 

Weber: I’m on  or , @LaurenWeberHP. 

Rovner: We will be back in your feed next week. Until then, be healthy. 

Credits

Francis Ying Audio producer
Emmarie Huetteman Editor

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ºÚÁϳԹÏÍø News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about .

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