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Morning Briefing

Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations

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Thursday, Apr 23 2020

Full Issue

'The Math Is Unfortunately Pretty Simple': If States Reopen Now, It's Not A Matter Of 'If' There Will Be More Cases, But Of 'How Many?'

States barreling toward reopening are weighing the economic devastation against the number of expected deaths that public experts project if social distancing measures are lifted right now. While some Southern and Midwest states are already releasing plans to do just that, others, like California, are doubling down now that new data shows the virus has likely spread far more than once believed.

How many deaths are acceptable to reopen the country before the coronavirus is completely eradicated? “One is too many,” President Trump insists, a politically safe formulation that any leader would instinctively articulate. But that is not the reality of Mr. Trump’s reopen-soon approach. Nor for that matter will it be the bottom line for even those governors who want to go slower. Until there is a vaccine or a cure for the coronavirus, the macabre truth is that any plan to begin restoring public life invariably means trading away some lives. (Baker, 4/22)

As several states — including South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida — rush to reopen businesses, the sudden relaxation of restrictions will supply new targets for the coronavirus that has kept the United States largely closed down, according to experts, math models and the basic rules that govern infectious diseases. “The math is unfortunately pretty simple. It’s not a matter of whether infections will increase but by how much,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a leading epidemiologist at Columbia University. Closing America was hard. But it came with one simple instruction: Everyone stay at home. (Wan, Johnson and Achenbach, 4/22)

More states in the U.S. South and Midwest signaled readiness on Wednesday to reopen their economies in hopes the worst of the coronavirus pandemic had passed, but California’s governor held firm to sweeping stay-at-home orders and business closures. (McKay and O'Brien, 4/22)

California and Indiana are retracing their coronavirus timelines after discovering that the highly infectious disease started killing people earlier than previously reported. Gov. Gavin Newsom has asked coroners to review California cases dating to December after autopsies revealed two people in the state died of coronavirus in early and mid-February -- up to three weeks before the first known US death from the virus at the time. (Karimi, 4/23)

Even as California continues to bend the coronavirus curve, a rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths as well as concerns about a second wave of the outbreak are reasons to stay vigilant, officials say. California has recorded more than 37,000 cases, adding nearly 2,000 on Tuesday alone. Part of the increase in new cases this week is the result of a lag in labs reporting test results and releasing bulk numbers. More than 1,400 people have died across the state. (4/22)

Saying his state has flattened the curve of coronavirus spread, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock on Wednesday released a plan outlining how churches, businesses and schools can open their doors again over the next three weeks. But significantly for this tourism-dependent state, a 14-day quarantine for out-of-state visitors remains, with an exemption for those visiting for work. (Ouellet, 4/22)

A new road map from the nation’s governors for reopening the economy urges a cautious approach, saying the White House must dramatically ramp up testing and help states bolster other public health measures before social distancing can be safely pulled back. The plan from the National Governors Association and state health officials suggests a wide-scale reopening of the country isn’t imminent, even as President Donald Trump roots on Southern states that are dialing down restrictions despite warnings from health experts. (Roubein, Goldberg and Ehley, 4/22)

An extension of the state's stay-at-home order beyond May 1 will probably be needed, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said during her Wednesday update on the coronavirus, especially for populations that are particularly vulnerable to the virus. "We are going to have to look at the process of re-engaging sectors of our economy," she said. "There will need to be an extension of some sort. We know that even when we get to a stable moment, that people who are compromised and vulnerable to COVID-19 are still going to need to stay home. (Gray and Spangler, 4/22)

Nevada officials condemned comments Wednesday by Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman after she called for casinos and other nonessential businesses to reopen and suggested the city could serve as a test case to measure the impact during the coronavirus pandemic. One local official called her comments “reckless and dangerous” and another described them as an “embarrassment.” Goodman, during a 25-minute interview with Anderson Cooper on CNN, said she wants everything back open, including casinos, restaurants and small businesses, and a return of conventions. (Price, 4/23)

More governors are reopening their economies by the day around the country, creating a patchwork of stay-home orders and other business restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic. Some states are moving faster to reopen, like Georgia, Oklahoma and Montana, where the governor on Wednesday gave the green light to schools to open back up in early May. Other states such as New Hampshire are considering extensions. (4/23)

To understand what the coming months will be like, try to tune out the politicians. There are way too many mixed messages coming from mayors, governors and presidential advisers. Tune into public health experts and CEOs instead. Yes, CEOs: I think we're seeing a repeat of mid-March, when corporate leaders moved more swiftly than political leaders to shut down key sectors of American society. Now, in late April, we're seeing companies act much more realistically than elected officials like Georgia governor Brian Kemp and Las Vegas mayor Carolyn Goodman. (Stelter, 4/23)

Temperature checks in all public buildings, masks for everyone and hazard pay for front-line employees are just some measures one civil rights organization is recommending Louisiana take before reopening parts of the state after coronavirus-induced closures. The Urban League of Louisiana, which aides underserved communities, said Wednesday those steps and others will help ensure that African-Americans and poor people aren't unduly threatened by reopenings, which if done too quickly or without enough preparation could cause infections to spike again. (Williams, 4/22)

This is part of the Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.
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